COVID in UK in Dec 2019

[PicsInRed]

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-daughter-of-uk-man-who-died-from-covid-19-in-january-attacks-china-for-cover-up-12067060

The above is about an elderly man, who hadn't left the UK, became ill in December, and died in January. COVID has now been found in his lung tissue.

The assumption seems to he that he contracted COVID in the community, long before it was presumed to even be in the community. He seems to have passed it on to his granddaughter, who presumably would also have unknowingly transmitted it further in the community.

With chest film and faecal samples now putting COVID in Europe in Autumn 2019 - or even possibly as early as March 2019 - surely there are some pretty big questions that need to be asked and answered by the government?

Not sure if this has already been mentioned, but I did think the recent announcement that symptoms in children are more likely to be gastro/d&v was interesting.

At the end of last year, several schools local to me actually had to close because of high rates of d&v in pupils.

At the end of last year, several schools local to me actually had to close because of high rates of d&v in pupils.

....but how would you differentiate this from norovirus/winter vomiting bug which spreads through (and causes closures) to some schools, care homes and hospitals most winters.. .?

Also anyone remember the strange lung disease that was reported in the US in August and how Trump was insisting it was related to vaping and was going to ban it, and then mysteriously dropped that and it all went quiet .... when he remained it was covid
www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-us-canada-49929276

www.nytimes.com/2019/11/17/health/trump-vaping-ban.html

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53447899

Respiratory viruses have overlapping symptoms and there were obviously some nasty strains around last winter.

Surely for it to end up rife in ski resorts it had to be pretty widespread before that?

DS was wiped out by something on mid-December. First time he's ever been off school longer than a precautionary 48 hours. He wasn't himself for weeks after and not really back on full power until the spring

I tried getting hold of the GP at one point when it was lingering and his glands went up like a hamster (remindee me of mumps, something that a vaccinated 9yo shouldn't have either) but I gave up after 35 attempts at trying to get through on the last Monday before Christmas.

Yep we cancelled Christmas with relatives as everyone I’ll, my asthmatic ds was in hospital in January with breathing difficulties from the chest infection / cough part. I saw a graph of respiratory infections by setting (school / hospital / care home) for Nov-March and there was a big surge in schools from Nov- Jan.

Researchers in France found X-rays of lungs consistent with the effects of COVID from mid November. Hence why the WHO has asked countries to go back and look through X-rays. The scientists say the virus spread quite slowly at first then picked up through Christmas with people socialising until it took off in Feb/March.

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-may-have-spread-in-la-weeks-before-first-official-us-case-declared-researchers-claim-12068861

December cases in LA.

With chest film and faecal samples now putting COVID in Europe in Autumn 2019 - or even possibly as early as March 2019

I would be very surprised if it was not here in March 2019. Something very similar was circulating in the west end of London around April/May 2019, but disappeared suddenly by the summer. The symptoms were identical, but slightly weaker.

My DM, exh and DS had it without a doubt in mid December, I'm 100% convinced not only because it f how awful the cough and high temp was, but also because all 3 commented they'd never felt anything like it before. And at 80 my mum has had just about every bug going!

I’m 60+ and never had anything like it and ticked every symptom. Had an inhaler prescribed when I’ve never had any respiratory problems in my life. I went from a regular gym goer to someone struggling to function for many weeks. If it wasn’t COVID it would have been attributed to COVID prior to widespread testing

There were a huge amount of children absent at our primary school last year in November and especially December. Seemed much more than normal. In fact, there was one day in December that our reception class had only 5-7 children in (normally around 30). Their christmas play was a week later and I think they struggled to perform it properly with so many still missing. It was crazy.

Something doesn’t add up with all this.... The U.K. had lower excess deaths in December to February than normal. This seems to be conclusive proof that the current Covid-19 virus cannot have been at all widespread in December, and that a flu like illness with similar symptoms is far, far more likely in the majority of cases.

And if you look at peak in NYC in March, it is even more stark as with other places where the virus was allowed to progress unmitigated. There’s no room for even a hint of ambiguity in that graph, it is so astonishingly stark.

So whereas it seems Covid may have been here back in December, it can’t have been in any way widespread at that point and into January. The cluster pattern of spread that we see in Covid (ie 10% of infections are responsible for 90% of spread (these are rough and ready approximations) and most infections die with the person infected) would allow this, with growth only approximating to exponential once infections reach high levels.

Comparisons with the Spanish flu are flawed. The first wave extinguished itself only to be replaced with a more dangerous killer mutation months later. Even if there was an earlier wave, it must have been due to a different precursor coronavirus that was nowhere near as deadly.

A flu-type illness still seems the most likely explanation that would have pretty much unnoticed had we not had Covid. There are nasty bugs almost every year.

It should be recognised that one of the reasons that Covid spread like it did in Northern Italy and NYC early in the pandemic was that doctors mistook symptoms for the flu and pneumonias that occur each year. It was only when people started deteriorating and dying in large numbers that the alarm was caused.... and this after Wuhan was in the news.

Assuming Wuhan was the ‘start’ of it all.

Big if.

@Manolin

Assuming Wuhan was the ‘start’ of it all.

Big if.

Sure it was.

www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1094347/world-military-games-illness-covid-19

How about this. Many people living or working in the west end of London, had COVID symptoms in the early summer of 2019, diagnosed as flu. Many Chinese people who live and work in the west end went home to see their relatives over the summer of 2019.

@Manolin

How about this. Many people living or working in the west end of London, had COVID symptoms in the early summer of 2019, diagnosed as flu. Many Chinese people who live and work in the west end went home to see their relatives over the summer of 2019.

So we're all clear here, are you suggesting that COVID started in London in June 2019, then it went on to China?

This is an extract from the national flu report from December. As can be seen, reported cases of flu like symptoms were nothing out of the ordinary, far less than 2010-11 for instance.

Whatever was the cause of the symptoms people had, the persistent average hospitalisation and death rate until mid-March, whereupon spikes were identified all over demonstrates beyond all reasonable doubt that Covid-19 - in its current deadly form at least - can’t have been widespread outside China before February. The evidence is overwhelming.

I would love anyone to explain the UK and especially NYC death spikes in March and April could possibly be consistent with a widespread outbreak of the same deadly Covid-19 back in 2019.

I would love anyone to explain the UK and especially NYC death spikes in March and April could possibly be consistent with a widespread outbreak of the same deadly Covid-19 back in 2019.

Young/healthy people got it early, care homes got it last, so hospitalisations and deaths rose later when care homes were overwhelmed.

Perhaps the young and healthy simply started getting it sooner than we previously thought.

@PicsInRed

Have you seen the spike? It’s completely inconsistent with that hypothesis. Did millions of young people who had only mixed socially with people of their own age suddenly have a “hug your granny” day in early March - worldwide. A build up in February following a few cases in December and January, yes.... but not widespread infection in 2019.

Time will tell.

I suspect that it was here in December, but alongside the usual flu and respiratory bugs that circulate each winter.

I had staff members off with identical symptoms in December (hospitalised), and January. I was ill in February with a headache, sore throat, mild temperature and, most weirdly, feet full of strange bruises which I can now see are identical to Covid Toe.

In my work (bereavement related), we had the usual flurry of cases 2nd week in January, and then it just exploded at the end of March. And, yes, most of these were care home deaths, or people infected by carers moving from home to home.

The majority of our cases were actually not covid, but were dementia.

I have no doubt that it was here much earlier than we thought. But when people on here dared to suggest it back in March/April we were shouted down and told we were idiots. Then the evidence of the early cases in France and Italy came and, well, maybe we weren't.

The argument was that there wasn't a spike in deaths - but there isn't a spike now, either (yet). Few cases = few deaths. By March there were hundreds of thousands of cases.