Most schools went back late last week (England) so positive tests can’t be related to that. More likely from the people coming home from holidays sitting on planes with the germs being circulated.
Just to touch on this.
In terms of when the schools opened, the jump in cases cant solely be blamed on that. But i dont think that travel on planes is an explanation either. Most places still have far lower rates than we do in the UK. In fact if you look at the figures, the risk is more likely to be from other Brits travelling on the same flight OUTWARD than the destination or flight back.
Also in terms of human behaviour, the knowledge that the schools were about to reopen may have led to changes in attitudes.
On Tuesday last week i was out somewhere and over heard two women who were letting their kids run riot and didnt have their face masks on in an enclosed area where its mandated. Their conversation highlights my point: they were saying there was no longer any point in adhering to the rules "because the kids were all back at school next week anyway".
So the return to school will have led to some substantial changes in more risky behaviour PRIOR to reopening because the knowledge that reopening was immenent changed behavior too.
This is compounded by the fact we have got to a critical stage where fatigue with restrictions has set in and behaviour was already changing. The number of people flouting rules on wesring masks has definitely increased week by week since they were made mandatory, as people realise there is zero enforcement going on and there is confusing government messaging about going out to eat, using public transport and going back to working in the office.
I reckon we have until about October half term before we either get to a point where the death rate is proving negligible so all restrictions pretty much get binned or we are in a position of abject chaos and a real problem with numbers.
I do find it fascinating how people are assessing this and saying that because theyve had so much contact with x number of people and no one has tested positive there is no risk. The risk has been constrained by behaviour and as that behaviour changes the risk changes. Thst means that people are ultimately potentially being lulled into a false sense of security but we wont know if thats true UNTIL that transpires.
And thats ultimately the problem we have. Behavioural expects dont KNOW what people are doing they can only guess.
Weve seen a slow breakdown in levels of compliance in the rules we do have which is as important as the places we go. And this is perhaps more significant than international travel etc.
Its the innocent 'one off' playdate last week with multiple kids and parents, to 'make the most of the last of the summer holidays' just when the parents are at wits end and kids are beyond bored thats just as significant.