Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 17 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
UK govt pressers Slides & data
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

WHO: Estimating mortality from COVID-19

https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/estimating-mortality-from-covid-19

There are two measures used to assess the proportion of infected individuals with fatal outcomes.

The first is infection fatality ratio (IFR), which estimates this proportion of deaths among all infected individuals.

The second is case fatality ratio (CFR), which estimates this proportion of deaths among identified confirmed cases.

@sirfredfredgeorge

So picking up more cases without symptoms shouldn’t affect the CFR

That is correct, but remember the rules for obtaining a test were not just "symptoms", you had to have significant enough symptoms to appear at a medical setting. If you just isolated with a bit of a temperature and a cough you never appeared as a case. So there were symptoms, but it wasn't counted in the cases stats at the time as no positive test, now there will be a positive test, hence counted.

..... The grounds for having a test vary between countries and vary between times Some "worried well" have had tests and would be included in the CFR, so would care workers & HCPs regularly tested in some countries

CFR includes all confirmed cases, some of which will have symptoms and some which won't

The new rules:

www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-meeting-with-others-safely-social-distancing/coronavirus-covid-19-meeting-with-others-safely-social-distancing

The German data includes only lab-confirmed cases
and a certain % have various symptoms
and another % have none
with the % varying among age groups

There will also be improved survival rates due to improved meds & other treatment, maybe 30-50% fewer deaths from that ?

He did mention shielding, at least the minutes on the bbc said so - I screenshot them in case the information disappeared!

@Bercows meant to tag you - the above is for you - hope it helps

What are those "special precautions" for previously shielded students, family members or staff ?
"Whether through shielding"

imo they should be allowed to stay home - could that be what he is saying ? -
with the WFH staff tutoring the students who stay home

We need more specific info from whoever does detail for the government

Updated regional analysis plots of hospital admissions from John R@johnactuary

As we've noted in several posts, the NW is leading the acceleration in cases

SAGE on mass testing

Very thorough on tech, organisation etc
but doesn't sound like "immunity passports" are feasible in practice

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/914931/s0712-tfms-consensus-statement-sage.pdf

"The use of testing as a point-of-entry requirement for particular settings and events, e.g. sporting and cultural events,
could play a role in allowing the resumption of such activities with reduced risk of transmission.

Such applications of testing would require superb organisation and logistics with rapid, highly sensitive tests."

@sunseekin thanks you I wonder what the "or otherwise" means? I informed ds's school is been shielded and told them what my GP had said about continuing to stick to 2m sd and generally be very careful. School assured me there was a staggered drop off and collection with a one way system and social distancing in place but to wear a mask. First of all it's not a one way system apart from in the playground. The steps and paths are two way and there's a maximum of a metre available to distance. People are dropping off early and picking up late or just arriving whenever. Hugging other people's kids, coming right up to others to chat and generally behaving like normal except for the huge conga line stretching halfway down the road. If you get there a few minutes before your time slot the queue is already out of the gates. I had to wait half an hour with ds to get a gap in the conga line that enabled me to keep some distance but even then I had to detour over the grassy area to avoid people and climb over a railing. I had to push and push the HT on safety and eventually was offered a temporary solution to drop ds later but collect earlier. This should have been done at the beginning for anyone vulnerable I think. I don't want ds to be a special case, I want him to be safe and he knows despite being 5 that people are supposed to be 2m apart and that he needs to keep me safe by sticking to the rules. And now here we are with covid symptoms! It's a farce. I'm glad to be isolating tbh as it saves us from that twice a day risk for a couple of weeks by which time things will hopefully have changed. It's a huge failing of the government to ignore the safety of vulnerable family at home and to leave schools with no measures they can take. They'd hands are tied to a certain extent but more could be done especially when they've known in advance of family being shielded.
Rant over

[quote Bercows]@sunseekin thanks you I wonder what the "or otherwise" means? I informed ds's school is been shielded and told them what my GP had said about continuing to stick to 2m sd and generally be very careful. School assured me there was a staggered drop off and collection with a one way system and social distancing in place but to wear a mask. First of all it's not a one way system apart from in the playground. The steps and paths are two way and there's a maximum of a metre available to distance. People are dropping off early and picking up late or just arriving whenever. Hugging other people's kids, coming right up to others to chat and generally behaving like normal except for the huge conga line stretching halfway down the road. If you get there a few minutes before your time slot the queue is already out of the gates. I had to wait half an hour with ds to get a gap in the conga line that enabled me to keep some distance but even then I had to detour over the grassy area to avoid people and climb over a railing. I had to push and push the HT on safety and eventually was offered a temporary solution to drop ds later but collect earlier. This should have been done at the beginning for anyone vulnerable I think. I don't want ds to be a special case, I want him to be safe and he knows despite being 5 that people are supposed to be 2m apart and that he needs to keep me safe by sticking to the rules. And now here we are with covid symptoms! It's a farce. I'm glad to be isolating tbh as it saves us from that twice a day risk for a couple of weeks by which time things will hopefully have changed. It's a huge failing of the government to ignore the safety of vulnerable family at home and to leave schools with no measures they can take. They'd hands are tied to a certain extent but more could be done especially when they've known in advance of family being shielded.
Rant over [/quote]
Rant away, it’s absolutely outrageous. I don’t know how the government can basically admit to knowing what’s coming but not give people the option of avoiding it in advance. Do whatever you need to do to keep yourself at home safe. I am hoping that by next weekend the guidelines will have changed.

Just watching- and appreciating lo
The information-although if I can comment I'd like to say I'm a community nurse - the local hospital was in one of the worst affected areas but although they are swabbing all new admissions there have been no new admissions due to Covid fir weeks. I imagine this could change of course.
We haven't seen anyone with covid in the community and currently low sickness staff rates. We are using the new track and trace app no one as yet has been asked to self isolate.
Also swabbing is easily available despite what is being reported

they've known in advance of family being shielded

I’m confused by why you think the school should be doing something different for your child/family

Shielding is currently paused in the U.K.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/guidance-on-shielding-and-protecting-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19/guidance-on-shielding-and-protecting-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19

That answer from Boris is so infuriating!

As you say bigchoc, what on earth does whether through shielding mean and how does this affect staff and children?

And the questions was about vulnerable so what if they weren't shielded but CV?

anyone with covid in the community and currently low sickness staff rates. We are using the new tracE

Are you in London - quite a few articles about why London is not returning to high levels of infections.

In some areas quite a few people had it and some of very elderly and ill died. Still not a widespread return to work. Public transport running at 20-30% capacity.

SD measures are also potentially reducing the viral load being transmitted.

@grownags

Just watching- and appreciating lo The information-although if I can comment I'd like to say I'm a community nurse - the local hospital was in one of the worst affected areas but although they are swabbing all new admissions there have been no new admissions due to Covid fir weeks. I imagine this could change of course. We haven't seen anyone with covid in the community and currently low sickness staff rates. We are using the new track and trace app no one as yet has been asked to self isolate. Also swabbing is easily available despite what is being reported

Covid vhospital admissions have doubled in Greater Manchester in the last 11 days so it is increasing here.

@grownags what do you mean by "swabbing is easily available"? Me and numerous people on MN plus in BBC reports and as listed by Kier Starmer in the Commons are being told there are none available at present?

To the PP above: the government pausing shielding doesn't mean the risk has disappeared, does it? Especially not for the particularly "extremely vulnerable".

@Gwynfluff yes shielding is paused but some people have been advised to continue shielding by medical professionals or in my case to "carry on being very careful and ensuring social distancing until the pandemic is over or there is a vaccine." That doesn't include standing less than one metre from different families in different year groups for 15 minutes each day along with being passed by or passing several different families and year groups on the one way system that is a two way system. Actual social distancing, masks and a one way system would have been brilliant but they haven't been able to do any of those things so people like me are put at risk. I want my son at school because he loves it there so I want things to be as safe as possible.

Bercows

I am so sorry that it's this way in the Uk.

I can confirm that this is also true of both my daughters' schools
First of all it's not a one way system apart from in the playground. The steps and paths are two way and there's a maximum of a metre available to distance. People are dropping off early and picking up late or just arriving whenever. Hugging other people's kids, coming right up to others to chat and generally behaving like normal

A small minority of parents, including me, are wearing masks (I'm doing it largely to remind people that we're in the middle of a pandemic - I've noticed it does seem to help people to remember to SD a bit). But otherwise you wouldn't know it was any different to March. If they're all behaving like this in the rest of their lives.....

Children of CV parents should in my opinion - at a minimum - be provided with a computer for home learning and support to stay at home if that is their family's decision / if local infection rates rise etc.

It would also be nice if the government provided enough money for schools to actually properly SD in school (using other venues, more staff, blended learning, whatever it takes), which would also reduce risk and mean that the children of vulnerable parents were able to be in school with more confidence.

[quote Bercows]@Gwynfluff yes shielding is paused but some people have been advised to continue shielding by medical professionals or in my case to "carry on being very careful and ensuring social distancing until the pandemic is over or there is a vaccine." That doesn't include standing less than one metre from different families in different year groups for 15 minutes each day along with being passed by or passing several different families and year groups on the one way system that is a two way system. Actual social distancing, masks and a one way system would have been brilliant but they haven't been able to do any of those things so people like me are put at risk. I want my son at school because he loves it there so I want things to be as safe as possible. [/quote]
Why haven't they managed it? We have to wear masks at drop off and there are markings for soci distancing. I'm not sure it is working brilliantly but that is down to the parents and not the school. But the actual drop off / pick up is very quick, so I feel very safe.

@IloveJKRowling thank you. I was one of about 3 wearing a mask on day one. Then it was just me and I got weird looks from other year group parents. Ds's class group parents are all really lovely but most have been going about their lives as normal and have no concept of what it was like to be shielded for so long. They have thought it crap the way school have done things though and been scathing of the two way system. There are alternatives but for whatever reason the school have decided not to use them. I hope other parents speak up. Looking at the amount of schools in Greater Manchester with classes or year groups being sent home and the rising rates in our own section of GM then I hope the HT realises that we need a better system to keep us all as safe as possible. I would be happy to home school ds if need be as long as there was work set like his sisters' school is going. During lockdown there was very little work set from the primary but the secondary were fantastic. I just did what I could and tried to relax as he's only 5 and bright so I wasn't too worried . We concentrated on things like gardening, baking, cooking, reading, writing and numbers with lots of game playing then adventures in the local woods once we started venturing out. He loved it but I'd rather him be in school with his friends because I'm not a substitute for a qualified teacher and friends.

Bercows - really hope the test is negative.
Really wish gov would just allow homeschooling without deregistering.
Our area is predicted on the imperial map to maybe become a hotspot
imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map

I'd rather him be in school with his friends because I'm not a substitute for a qualified teacher and friends.

Bercow yes, I feel the same and my children are in school even though I know they're not doing best practice- or even close - in our schools.

Hope the test is negative and the policy on homeschooling and deregistering is changed soon - as a minimum.

But they have no money....

I do feel very strongly that vulnerable parents are being let down and when I hear about friends in the US - whose son is 5 and in school half time (to allow all students to be fully SD), fully masked all the time (except lunch), and has been given a computer with loaded materials for home learning. Well, I do get angry.

New tool could 'help UK doctors spot high-risk Covid patients in seconds'

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/09/risk-calculator-for-covid-19-patients-could-help-doctors

Patients with Covid-19 behave very differently to patients with other conditions such as flu and bacterial pneumonia,
.....
and it is very challenging for doctors managing this unfamiliar disease to accurately identify those who are at high risk of deterioration
or who can ride out their illness at home.