UK doing ok

[ExmoorPony]

A lot of people seemed to love the fact our infection rates were so much higher than the rest of Europe.

Not so now! So much for Spain's strict lockdown and mask wearing policy.....it didn't work!

@housemdwaswrong

Where did you get the R rate 1.3 figure for Wales? That’s so concerning with kids going back now

@bibbitybobbitycats

UK Govt's own assessment is up to 85k CV deaths

That is a worst case scenario, though.

It's the reasonable worst case scenario.

Even if it is half that, that's the same as last time all over again.

Yep reasonable worst case, so lets hope is a tiny % of that

@poppyliveshere

It's on the covid zoe app. I'm looking for it. I'll screenshot when I find it.

@poppyliveshere

@housemdwaswrong that’s so worrying esp for those just released from shielding 😩

I know :/ I'm a supply teacher and just finished shielding. Not going back until after October half term...if ever. I think I may have taught my last lesson. I'll have to dko something else in the meantime and can't see me going back into the classroom once I've started something else.

I'm immunosupressed, currently with low white blood count too. I look after my parents, my mum has dementia and I just can't risk it for any of us at the moment.

I have savings for the first time ever, ill have to use then to live on now.

It's the shielding pupils and shielding parents I feel for. So many impossible decisions. :/

At the height of the pandemic the UK was doing appallingly, 42k deaths, way higher per capita than anywhere else in Europe (mainland)

Erm...
In total, the per capita death rate of Spain and Belgium have been worse so far. Italy and Sweden pretty close.

On a 14 day death per capita curve, the peak for the UK was about the same or lower than Spain and France, just above Italy and way below Belgium.
It's in the poor performance group, but not worse than the group.

Of course that while those countries were already taking strong measures, the UK government was still dithering or doing U-turns. Their whole approach has been shambolic but eventually they get there.
The thing was that they could have prevented the initial big rise thanks to the benefit of a later curve, but didn't. Other countries did take advantage of that period.

[quote Poppyliveshere]@housemdwaswrong that’s so worrying esp for those just released from shielding 😩[/quote]
Dont panic too much. Below a certain number of cases the R rate becomes meaningless.

@Pertella true, but now more daily cases than when lockdown was announced. I believe they were using the r number then? So must have some relevance now I'd have thought?

[quote housemdwaswrong]@Pertella true, but now more daily cases than when lockdown was announced. I believe they were using the r number then? So must have some relevance now I'd have thought?[/quote]
There is no way there are more cases now than before lockdown. More confirmed positives but that’s because we are doing more testing! It was estimated there were 100000 infections a day at the point we locked down - borne out by the days of 1000 daily deaths we had a few weeks later.

But we aren't getting the spike in cases like back then, and we are testing a lot more people too which makes a difference.

The number of daily cases is remaining pretty static.

Hospital admissions are way down, as are deaths.

I think that the percentage of positive tests in relation to the number of tests performed is staying below 1% too.

Yes, you're right of course. More confirmed cases, but that makes part of the r rate calculation doesn't it? And I'm not being sarky by the way, I'm asking. I thought that contributed to the calculations because they extrapolate from that.

@pertella, 0.6%I think according to what I found after reading madame blobby's post.
March 23rd 25.7. But if they were testing less was the percentage figure always going to be higher because they were already hospitalised?

Anyway you are right about the spike and hoapital admissions so far. Hopefully that's stays as is, and it will be just low level.

I have my doubts though as Wales cases are up and shielding just finished. Is what it is, and we can only do our bit and hope it doesn't start to spike again.

The R rate was close to 4 when lockdown was began.

Confirmed cases form part of the calculation but it doesn't take into account where and how outbreaks occur. 1 outbreak in a factory for example would push the R rate up, but if the outbreak is contained to just those workers then its not an accurate reflection of the whole county the factory is in IYSWIM.

Just to add that the zoe figures are estimates based on app users self reporting. It says:

"Wales & Scotland have wider confidence interval since they are not currently enhancing app data by inviting app users for testing"

So Welsh figures are a less accurate estimate as they don't ask people reporting symptoms to test like they do in England.

I do...i thought they had cleverer ways to extrapolate the data. Obviously not. Thank you.

I sawvtge confidence rate was wider. Cases on the increase here, but they will be on and off for a bit i guess. The welsh gov covid data at lsast you can search by area too now...was previously by lhb, not clever in very rural parts, meant nothing. Area is much more sensible.

Erm...
In total, the per capita death rate of Spain and Belgium have been worse so far. Italy and Sweden pretty close

... and thats after we stopped counting anyone who dies of Cv after 28 days and our complete lack of testing and recording deaths in the initial period of the outbreak.
www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

Agree, UK Govt has been appalling but the UK population is so gullible that a significant minority still support Johnson.

@thecatsatonthewall

Erm... In total, the per capita death rate of Spain and Belgium have been worse so far. Italy and Sweden pretty close

... and thats after we stopped counting anyone who dies of Cv after 28 days and our complete lack of testing and recording deaths in the initial period of the outbreak.
www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

Agree, UK Govt has been appalling but the UK population is so gullible that a significant minority still support Johnson.

We are still counting people who 'dies of CV after 28 days' if covid-19 is stated as a cause of death on the death certificate.

housemdwaswrong I left teaching for health reasons some years ago, and found tutoring was quite well paid...wonder if that might be an option for you especially as some vulnerable children may be home, could be online? Just a thought. Also might be possible to get a health retirement payment or PIP / ESA? the latter is not means tested if you have enough NI conts. In case this helps you any. Just as an aside sorry to derail thread. Also look at carer's allowance for relatives...

We are still counting people who 'dies of CV after 28 days' if covid-19 is stated as a cause of death on the death certificate

Govt used the 28 day figure to reduce total numbers by 5377, if they had also inc deaths where CV mentioned on the death certificate (over 28 days but under 60) it would have cut the number by 1668.

Going forward, deaths occurring up to 60 days will be included if CV is on the death certificate.

They have used the new method of counting to reduce the numbers not for statistical accuracy.

Imho any death where CV is mentioned should count, it was obviously wrong that someone getting hit by a bus was counted after a positive CV test but this was a small %.

Yes, we know you use the same method in England as the rest of the UK and most of Europe. If we used the same method as Spain our total deaths would be broadly the same. So your point that the UK has the highest death per capita is nonsense, by all measures.