Is the virus becoming weaker?

[igot20joe]

How else would you explain the increase in cases over recent weeks but no corresponding increase in hospital admissions or deaths?

Younger adults are catching it, with a far lower risk of dying or becoming seriously ill

The most seriously ill and elderly have already died

Hospitals have more capacity to treat adults at an earlier stage

There is more knowledge about transmission, about the virus and how we can treat it ie avoiding invasive ventilation etc

We weren't testing in the numbers we now are back in March. We have no
Idea what % of people with the virus were in hospital or died as we don't know how many had it.

The virus could also be mutating and dying out 🤞🏽🤞🏽🤞🏽🤞🏽

It’s very good indeed that it’s the case but it may be other factors such as younger people getting it.

Do they have stats on age?

Hospitalisations numbers now would have to be similar to cases back then (March/April )to be comparable. We don't know how many young people were infected back then because you only got a test in hospital ( and you had to be blue in the face to be admitted apparently).
I've seen some estimates of cases being 20 to 30 times higher than now back then

Isn't it just a case that it ripped through older and more vulnerable people first? This resulted in more deaths.

We’re not letting it rip through care homes
People who are more at risk are being very careful
It’s summer and our immune systems are better at throwing illness off
Social distancing/masks mean that people are catching it with a smaller amount of virus (viral load) and so not getting it as badly

I’ve seen reports from scientists saying that although it is possible for a virus to get weaker, it takes a lot longer than we’ve had so far for that to happen

Isn't it just a case that it ripped through older and more vulnerable people first? This resulted in more deaths.

We know they ended up in hospital. There was almost zero testing outside of hospital back then so we don't know how many other people got it what ages they were etc. We can only estimate it from seroprevalence studies since then

Two reasons would be that predominantly young people are getting infected, and focussed testing in hotspot areas increasing fraction of actual infections tested.

There was an interesting article (poss Economist?) which studied this - it considered but discounted the virus weakening (too quick) but concluded it was a mix of younger people getting it and a weaker viral load from mask-wearing and hygiene measures.

Well, I’m in Ireland and this is what’s happening here.

Cases have been rising for at least seven weeks now. We have a higher rate per 100,000 than the U.K.

Hospitalisations/deaths remain incredibly low. About 1 in 100 who has C19 now is in hospital with it. 5 in ICU in the whole country right now. Deaths are minimal.

It isn’t just that young people are getting it. Data clearly shows that older people are contracting it , but not getting as sick.

We are testing lots of people and picking up mild cases, but we were testing lots of people at the very start too. 95% of tests in March were negative.

I believe SD is decreasing viral loads, but close contacts are the main way of spreading, so I’m not sure it’s making that much difference.

In conclusion, yes, it seems obvious to me it’s getting weaker across Europe. It also seems to be more infectious (in Ireland it’s ripping thorough setting like food factories, which weren’t a big problem at the height).

I understand why we’re not politically ready to acknowledge this, but the data tells a clear story.

A more infectious, but less deadly strain has been found in Indonesia, which has been circulating in Europe.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8679129/Mutated-coronavirus-strain-10-times-infectious-deadly-discovered-Indonesia.html

@MarshaBradyo

It’s very good indeed that it’s the case but it may be other factors such as younger people getting it.

Do they have stats on age?

I haven’t seen UK data, but there was some French data that showed the infections started mainly in the young and were then starting to spread into older age groups a the outbreak went in. Hospital admissions are now starting to rise in some areas in France.

If you’ve ever used NextStrain, I think there’s quite a variation on the sub strains being picked up in Europe. In order for this to be a genetic change I think you have to have multiple strains all having had a mutation to make them less severe.

@igot20joe

How else would you explain the increase in cases over recent weeks but no corresponding increase in hospital admissions or deaths?

BBC news today from 9-10 did a question and answer on this.

No evidence it's becoming weaker.

Infection rates are MUCH lower.

1500 positives identified a day compared to possibly 100k at peak.

Much younger age group currently being infected.

Better treatments for those who are higher risk.

Lower viral load as less generally in the population.

Much quicker identification of cases so much quicker isolation of transmission chain.

Much better understanding of symptoms.

There’s a lag between test results and becoming ill enough to die

D614G isn’t necessarily associated with lower death rates. www.newscientist.com/article/2252699-covid-19-is-becoming-less-deadly-in-europe-but-we-dont-know-why/

We don’t really know is about as good as an answer as you’re going to get. What we do know is that in lots of places the infection currently looks like it’s being driven by younger people, and age is the biggest risk factor for COVID. We also know that there are places where hospital admissions and then deaths lagged behind cases for a while and then suddenly spiked upwards. So caution, rather than assumption is the best way forward for now.

I’d also add the vulnerable and extremely vulnerable being a lot more cautious about risks they take to that list from the BBC.

If fewer of them are getting infected because they are still being more careful about what activities they do, it would explain fewer complications.

Nearly all the over-70s I know are staying at home still. Not going out at all apart from exercise and essential appointments.
Since they are effectively isolating themselves from the virus, they won't be catching it, but if they were not doing this they would be very ill and maybe die if they caught it, just like if they caught it in March.

I'm sure social distancing and being far more aware than we were at the beginning of the year means the viral load is a lot lower. That's got to be part of the reason.

Youve also only got 28 days to die of the virus if you die after that point it's not recorded

@LaLaLandIsNoFun

There’s a lag between test results and becoming ill enough to die

Yes there is, usually around 3-4 weeks. Infection rates here have been rising since early July. Hospital admissions and deaths continue to decline. I suspect the answer is a mixture of all of the above... the vulnerable are continuing to be extremely careful, younger people are mingling and catching it but aren’t having severe symptoms, better treatment options in hospital and sadly many of those vulnerable to it have already died.

@Pesimistic

Youve also only got 28 days to die of the virus if you die after that point it's not recorded

Whereas under the previous recording method you could have a mild Covid infection, fully recover, 3 months later you could die in a car accident and that would have been recorded as a Covid death. I had Covid in April. Am fully recovered. If I died today of any cause, that would have been recorded in the official stats as a Covid death under the old reporting system. Bonkers eh? Thankfully they changed the system to bring us in line with the rest of the world. Remember that someone who dies of Covid in hospital will be recorded as a Covid death whenever it happens, of Covid was considered to be the cause of death. The change in reporting only applies to the PHE numbers which were from ‘all other settings’.

@mahclickypen

Younger adults are catching it, with a far lower risk of dying or becoming seriously ill

The most seriously ill and elderly have already died

Hospitals have more capacity to treat adults at an earlier stage

There is more knowledge about transmission, about the virus and how we can treat it ie avoiding invasive ventilation etc

Or have been staying at home and will then catch it when they have to start going out. Vulnerable teachers and school staff who have had the summer at home for example.

Am fully recovered. If I died today of any cause, that would have been recorded in the official stats as a Covid death under the old reporting system. Bonkers eh? Thankfully they changed the system to bring us in line with the rest of the world.

The rest of the world or the rest of the UK?

Over half of the deaths that were removed from the stats were people who died of Covid. The number of people who were overcounted in the death stats is overshadowed by the number undercounted. Which is probably why the gap between the daily stats and the ONS data is growing.

The rest of the world or the rest of the UK?

Actually I shouldn’t have said the rest of the world as I haven’t investigated how every single other country reports it, you’re right.
Many countries in Europe only count those within 28 days though.