Is the virus becoming weaker?

[igot20joe]

How else would you explain the increase in cases over recent weeks but no corresponding increase in hospital admissions or deaths?

That’s interesting about the viral load but I guess it makes sense

Also, I’m not a big fan of the terminology, but Europe is in its ‘second’ wave whereas certain parts of the US are very much in the first.

That would be explained by different dominant variants in circulation.

Indeed but with open borders a bad strain in one country can easily reach other countries.

open borders a bad strain in one country can easily reach other countries.

Absolutely, and if this is the case we’d be better knowing about it.

However, I also read something that suggested that the milder strain seems to be ‘crowding out’ the more deadly one when they cone up against each. Which would look like a good explanation for what happened in Europe and would explain Japan. However, we have little certainty right now, obviously.

People who are more at risk are being very careful

It's well established that relatively healthy younger people have been more likely to get together in large groups (raves/protests/parties etc) and not socially distance and carry on more as normal. That demographic is very low risk, whereas younger people with major health concerns probably aren't spending their weekend at raves and parties.

Older people and anyone most at risk are still mostly either shielding or being somewhat careful.

However, all the kids back at school will mean vulnerable parents are back at risk (and grandparents if the parents still visit as part of bubble or live with them). Plus, 'get back to the office' campaign will make public transport busy again and people with health conditions who've worked from home and not been anywhere since March will find themselves back on the tube and waiting in line to get the lift to floor 30 in their office block with no windows open.

I also read something that suggested that the milder strain seems to be ‘crowding out’ the more deadly one when they cone up against each.

I do think this seems to be happening in much of Europe at least for now. Particularly Madrid, London, Paris and Lombardy got hit with a bad strain of Covid when it first hit properly around February/March and most of those being huge, bustling capital cities it spread it around the country. Same thing happened in New York which is since under control but not in other states.

There is investigation into whether it was about from August last year.

Nothing is proven or disproven yet.

Who have asked all x rays and patients with unusual respiratory conditions be looked at.

We had loads of children and some adults before Xmas here with coughs that didn't go for weeks. Constant cough and extreme fatigue. The testing for glandular fever was particularly high as well.

Lots of reports of respiratory illness in schools and high absense.

Obviously currently it's just a hypothesis. But if it's proven they have suggested March was a second wave - which could explain why it was so exponential and deadly. History shows us a second waves can be like that.

They have found cases in France as far back as December and due to close links with skiing etc it leads to possibility.

So there is still so much unknown.

Especially about variant strains, effects from variant strains, absolute origen, if it's getting weaker.

It is known virus do weaken. Killing their host isn't a good idea when you need them to reproduce you!

There is just no concrete evidence of any of the above yet. Just lots of speculation with varying scientists producing varying evidence to back their claims.

Imagine there are 500,000 people in the UK who would be susceptible to being very ill with Covid. The virus has to find its way to those people through chains of transmission. Earlier in the year, there were no blockers in the way so it could easily within 3 months find 50,000 of those people (say). Now imagine the remaining 450,000 are still out there and the virus has to find its way to them. It is now much harder for the virus:

• To start with, these people are not evenly distributed across the country, there are higher proportions of these people in hospitals and care homes which now have excellent infection control and above average antibody levels in staff.
• even if only 1 in 10 people have antibodies/immunity that will cause 1 in 10 chains of transmission to break so it's not to be dismissed.
• social distancing, increased hygiene and isolating with symptoms will break chains
• less socialising and travel
• no more superspreader events

So the time taken for those next 50,000 to be found and "infected" will be much longer than the 3 months. And the longer it takes, there will be some small numbers of the rest of the population infected along the way which every day adds more blockers and increases population immunity.

This is how I think of it and why i don't find the decreased death rate etc too surprising.

It is known virus do weaken. Killing their host isn't a good idea when you need them to reproduce you!

I'm not convinced there is a strong case for that here. Generally I'd expect that some genetic variation would give an advantage over others if it gives that strain a natural selection edge over others. As it stands the virus spreads easily amongst at least half the population in Europe ( and more in developing countries) with little I'll effects.

It is hard to see how a strain less deadly to the elderly will make that much of a difference. If the virus has a ridiculously high infection fatality rate maybe but it is less than 1% as it is.

Has HIV got less dangerous after 40 years or is it that treatment is better? Perhaps someone more knowledgeable could explain the evidence that covid has or will I imminently become less dangerous

@Pesimistic

Youve also only got 28 days to die of the virus if you die after that point it's not recorded

If you're in UK that's a load of rubbish.

They are counting and reporting 3 different sets of data on deaths depending on the time elapsed since the postive test.

Please don't post nonsense when a basic google is all that's needed to educate yourself

publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2020/08/12/behind-the-headlines-counting-covid-19-deaths/

@walksen

It is known virus do weaken. Killing their host isn't a good idea when you need them to reproduce you!

I'm not convinced there is a strong case for that here. Generally I'd expect that some genetic variation would give an advantage over others if it gives that strain a natural selection edge over others. As it stands the virus spreads easily amongst at least half the population in Europe ( and more in developing countries) with little I'll effects.

It is hard to see how a strain less deadly to the elderly will make that much of a difference. If the virus has a ridiculously high infection fatality rate maybe but it is less than 1% as it is.

Has HIV got less dangerous after 40 years or is it that treatment is better? Perhaps someone more knowledgeable could explain the evidence that covid has or will I imminently become less dangerous

I only know that about them mutating because the scientist said it this morning on the bbc interview where they also said there's no evidence currently Covid has and is doing this (yet).

SIL icu nurse they know more about it than march /April they don't put people on ventilators straight away , more treatments like blood thinners etc
Expecting bad winter which is to be expected and she has been frontline and said she can't wait to send her kids to scholl !

@Mummabeary

Excellent post.

There are many very credible reasons why deaths are rising at present that do not involve the virus mutating into a less deadly strain.

There is also no evidence, that I’m aware of, that suggests that a less virulent strain is now prevalent. I wish there were, but there isn’t. If I’m wrong on this, I’d be delighted to be put right.

The “deaths are lower, therefore the virus must be weakening”.... with the subtext “therefore we can get back completely to normal now” is just one of many lines used by the libertarians to promote their “Covid shouldn’t be allowed to interfere with our lives” position.

Despite it being pushed persistently, no evidence has been presented to support it, only assertions based on half-baked deductions and out-of-context quotes from scientific papers, that fall apart after the most basic scrutiny.

.... deaths aren’t rising

There's talk that the virus is mutating, so the virsus load is less but I don't know if that's true.

I think hospital staff are now much more prepared, there's afew drugs that they are giving people and it seems to be working.

Alot of vulnerable people are still shielding / still staying at home, so less are dying

But who knows really....

Hopefully, Its just beginning to die out...

@TheKeatingFive

I don’t doubt that Ireland has tested better than the U.K., but widespread testing was not available before lockdown in the way it now, and positivity rates were far higher, as this graph indicates

with the subtext “therefore we can get back completely to normal now”

No one on this thread has said anything like that, it’s an enormous reach.

But people are allowed to discuss evidence before their eyes, which includes ...

Cases rising, but hospitalisations and deaths remaining incredibly low.

A less deadly strain of the virus that has been identified and has been noted in circulation in a number of places, including Europe. What we don’t know scientifically is how prevalent it is, but its existence would explain a lot of what’s going on.

I’m using Ireland as an example, because I live here and I see the situation. The many theories around why the deaths are so low don’t seem to entirely explain what’s going on here (though I’m sure they’re all making some difference).

It’s not just better treatment, because less than 1% of those infected here right now have even been hospitalised.

It’s not just because young people are the only ones getting infected, because the data is clear that older people are too. I only noted today that there are several clusters in nursing homes and have been for several weeks. But minimal hospitalisation and deaths.

It’s not just increased testing picking up asymptomatic cases, because testing in the early days of the pandemic was widespread here and had a 95% negativity rate.

It’s not just social distancing, because the spread is predominately taking place in situations where SD probably isn’t happening (house parties, family groups, direct provision centres)

Given all of that, it’s natural to look for other reasons. That doesn’t mean for a second that I think we should get back to normal now.

and positivity rates were far higher, as this graph indicates

That graph doesn’t cover March which is specifically when I referenced.

They had to change the qualifying criteria at that point, because the waste of man hours was ridiculous.

The main things keeping the virus alive are the Government and the media.

Mummabear excellent post. Very clear and really made me think.

I think the fact we have and continue to have quite a good result so far since lockdown ended shows the measure do work.

It very clear they are needed too. Look at factory outbreaks etc. It shows what can happen without the right measures.

Finding the balance of not too much people loose interest when we need them on board the most and not too little spread gets away from us and it's harder to claw back.

@itsgettingweird

I think the fact we have and continue to have quite a good result so far since lockdown ended shows the measure do work.

It very clear they are needed too. Look at factory outbreaks etc. It shows what can happen without the right measures.

Finding the balance of not too much people loose interest when we need them on board the most and not too little spread gets away from us and it's harder to claw back.

Yes I agree. If we follow the rules we can actually have a pretty good semblance of a life x

@mamabeary we don't know whether antibodies protect one, or for how long. It's possible that those with antibodies have lost immunity by now.

@TheKeatingFive

I don’t rule out that the virus is weakening, it’s just that there are other reasons for the lower death rate... We’ll see soon enough.

As for the “... so therefore we can get back completely to normal now” subtext, whereas I’m not saying that’s you, it’s a very popular trope amongst Covid-deniers and is one part of their axes to grind.... I’ve probably been posting on here too much/too long!

If i am wrong and the virus really has weakened
substantially, I’d be happy to join them in their demands!