Is the virus becoming weaker?

[igot20joe]

How else would you explain the increase in cases over recent weeks but no corresponding increase in hospital admissions or deaths?

Kactus thanks for that explanation. I was wondering how they would record people in hospital with covid who died after 28 days if still on ventilator due to covid.

Agree with all previous points.
I'm especially interested in the '' viral load '' one too.

This will be very interesting as winter comes into play and classrooms etc.
The viral load facing teachers and students with each other could be huge.

If it hasnt got weaker in my opinion whilst we have lower numbers of infected people we might be seeing what the true nature of the virus is. It would be nice to see a breakdown of ages but there was one on the graphs thread a while and still a fair % elderly

@mahclickypen

You said 'The most seriously ill and elderly have already died'

Well considering around 40,000 people died then you are completely wrong in that statement.

The country has roughly "11.8 million UK residents aged 65 years and over, representing 18% of the total population – (2018).... so when did 11.8 million people die of Covid in this country!

I do think viral load is significant in terms of the severity of the illness.
If it was everywhere in March and we weren’t social distancing then people could have been getting a much higher viral load.

This is positive. Hopefully we continue with mask wearing and social distancing measures and this should help keep the death rate low.

It also seems to be more infectious (in Ireland it’s ripping thorough setting like food factories, which weren’t a big problem at the height).

I’m not sure about this... With up to 10% of the U.K. population having been infected, it ripped through many places back in March.... We just didn’t know as 100,000+ were being infected every single day, and only those need hospitalisation were tested, so you wouldn’t have known.

However, the fact that it can still rip through factories implies that a large proportion of the population hasn’t yet been infected and we are a way from herd immunity.

By and large, the people who are likely to become seriously ill are staying home, or following social distancing guidelines to the letter. So the people who are getting it are the ones who are able to deal with it.

The most seriously ill and elderly have already died

I’m not sure how that squares with the 2.2 million who have been shielding since March....

I’m not sure about this... With up to 10% of the U.K. population having been infected, it ripped through many places back in March

Ireland always had much wider testing than the U.K.

Food factories weren’t a big issue in Ireland then, but the recent surge of cases has heavily featured factory outbreaks with 28 factories reporting outbreaks.

People with ANY symptoms are getting tested. It is being picked up very early. Treatments are improving and have greater successes when used early. So fewer will need hospitalising or ventilation, fewer will die. We are simply learning by trial and error, how to treat a new disease. We seem to be succeeding.

Given that it has been shown people can catch the virus twice (and in those cases very minor symptoms the second time) and that the spread was mane to be high before the lockdown(s) in various countries

Could it be some people are getting it twice testing positive but with mild symptoms? Perhaps?

"The spread of the virus at the start of the epidemic showed how difficult it was to grasp this idea of exponential increase, but it may help us understand why the current rise in cases is not being followed by extra hospital admissions or deaths. It is vital that we don’t just count cases, but look at their ages, and the latest report from Public Health England reveals the highest rate of positive tests is in the 15-44 age-group. If 5,000 30-year-olds get infected, we might expect just one or two to die, and so this helps explain the lack of severe consequences so far. But it’s a different picture for the frail and elderly, who need proper protection."

From: www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/31/politicians-covid-19-statistics-statisticians?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Food factories weren’t a big issue in Ireland then, but the recent surge of cases has heavily featured factory outbreaks with 28 factories reporting outbreaks.

Covid was clearly capable of infecting a group of factory workers back in March - it was spreading like wildfire.... The fact it didn’t back then was far more likely to be that the country locked down before the infection reached that far and, as the link shows below, this is consistent with the seemingly low level of infection spread in Ireland.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-ireland-has-no-significant-herd-immunity-study-shows-1.4308216%3fmode=amp

The fact it didn’t back then was far more likely to be that the country locked down before the infection reached that far

Factories weren’t in lockdown and conditions now are similar to conditions from a few weeks in.

But major outbreaks in factories are far more prevalent now than they were at the start. And this started at a point where case numbers were low overall in the country overall.

Obviously community spread after that is a separate issue.

"But major outbreaks in factories are far more prevalent now than they were at the start."

How do we know this if there was no testing at the start?
From what I can tell Normally these outbreaks tend to start with a few staff confirming a positive test, the company testing everyone and finding that dozens or hundreds are actually infected. It is not as if they are shutting from dozens of people self isolating because of symptoms then positive tests coming after.

I’m talking about Ireland, we’re testing was always relatively widely available, unlike the U.K.

Judging by the high number of asymptomatic and mild cases that are amongst the positive tests, I'm inclined to think an awful lot of people have already had it. So the number of cases back in Feb/March/April was far higher than we know about.

@TheKeatingFive

Testing was relatively widely available compared to the U.K., but in March was like it is now. Looking at cases and antibody levels, Ireland has had at least 10 times the number of actual infections than confirmed infections, with this almost certainly higher back in March than it was subsequently.

Hopefully people in care homes are now better protected as well.

I’m sure it was higher.

However, testing in March in Ireland had a 95% negativity rate (before they tightened the criteria for testing) so the theory that swathes of people had it and didn’t know doesn’t stack up either.

Viral load is bound to be less with social distancing. Even people who are having parties etc will be more aware of it and probably not having as much close contact as previously. Added to all the screening, hand washing, etc, etc - all reduces the number of particles being passed from person to person. Fewer particles (due to precautions/restrictions) mean the virus is still being passed on, but only in much smaller doses. Someone sitting face to face across a tiny table for 2 hours is going to pass on a huge viral load, but due to restrictions, you may now be sat further away and for less time, so inevitably a much small viral load. If the viral load is smaller, your body has a much better chance of fighting it.

@OverTheRainbow88

The virus could also be mutating and dying out 🤞🏽🤞🏽🤞🏽🤞🏽

That is the hope in Europe at the moment, but the ongoing death toll across America or India is more of a reality check.

but the ongoing death toll across America or India is more of a reality check.

That would be explained by different dominant variants in circulation.