Protecting the NHS?

[Racoonworld]

Back in March we were told lockdown was to protect the NHS, would be reviewed every 3 weeks and likely to be for up to 12 weeks. Well it is now 5 months later, the NHS never got overwelmed, and we are still in lockdown. Yes I know things are opening up but we still have massive restrictions on our lives, including not being able to hug family and friends and not being able to see more than one household inside (England), which over summer is fine but coming up to winter is obviously not going to be sustainable for most people. Many have had education disrupted, healthcare disrupted, jobs lost, family and friends separated, and I'm sure many more consequences.

What are we all/the government waiting for? There may never be a vaccine or effective treatment. Do they really expect people to live like this for years if there is no vaccine? Surely they need to give us a plan and timeline for what they expect of us or no one will stick to the rules for much longer.

Currently we are running at a rolling average of 10 deaths a day due to Covid. Some of those people actually died weeks and months ago

Out of a population of 10 deaths per 60+ million we are decimating our economy

And that is without counting the morbidity and mortality of all the cancelled investigations and procedures. My GP surgery is still in full lockdown.

It's not making sense

@AuntieStella

You might want to watch Xand Van Tulleken programme on Ch4 this evening (on catch up). It explains why so many in the NHS are pessimistic about the winter virus season.

If they're saying to the government what they said on air, then it's not surprising that restrictions (or capability to impose restrictions) are being retained.

Pretty scathing about deficiencies of track and trace.

Government invited to comment, but declined

Sounds like fun viewing

@latticechaos I would scrap the social distancing in private, keep it in public places. For now anyway, not indefinitely. My point is we don’t seem to have a plan. If there is no vaccine we will have to go back to normal and yes, accept that deaths from Covid will rise. Do you really think people will stick to this going into next year?

I would also scrap social distancing between family members but keep it between strangers. We are being told that loads of people have jacked in social distancing with friends and family anyway, so it probably even make much difference.

The W.H.O said that we probably wont see the back of Corona until 2022. Although that means world wide.
There is a vaccination about to go into the final stage of testing. Which is great news.

Regarding university students. I live in a city with 2 large universities. I am nervous of their return. We are just out of a 3 week lockdown that was spread through pubs abd ppl not social distancing. It was a crap 3 weeks. I wouldbe gutted if it happened again.

[quote Racoonworld]@latticechaos I would scrap the social distancing in private, keep it in public places. For now anyway, not indefinitely. My point is we don’t seem to have a plan. If there is no vaccine we will have to go back to normal and yes, accept that deaths from Covid will rise. Do you really think people will stick to this going into next year?[/quote]
And lack of SD in private homes is one of the biggest causes of rising cases in the NW etc.

How many more cases and deaths will there be per day six weeks after changing that rule?

You say we have to accept cases will rise. How many deaths are you happy to see per day? What's your top number?

Also if all you want to do is see your family, what's stopping you doing it now? No one will know if you sit 2m apart or not.

OP I don’t quite follow your logic. You want normality back... yet you’re not doing the normal things you’re already allowed to do like going to shops, restaurants etc?

@latticechaos of course cases and deaths will go up. It’s not nice to think about but inevitable really. What’s your top number of months/years you’re willing to live with the restrictions for?

I am seeing family and friends but would like to be able to socialise like normal with bigger groups and not worry about social distancing. I don’t care if I never stand closer than 2m to a stranger again but I am not keeping this up with people I know and want to spend time with.

I work in a critical NHS service that has run throughout lockdown, I'm completely exhausted; all the services around ours have closed/only offered telephone triage/only seen very high priority patients and we've been left to pick up everyone else. Ive had enough now, I'm seeing so many isolated, depressed, deconditioned patients, some of whom are in severe pain due to postponed surgery/procedures. Patients are angry and rightly so.

I was always so passionate about the NHS but I feel completely disillusioned.

I think instead of saying we got it wrong because the NHS wasn't overwhelmed we should be proud we got it right. That 111 GPs Hot clinics and the hospitals co-ordinating and the vulnerable shielding meant we managed this.

[quote Racoonworld]@latticechaos of course cases and deaths will go up. It’s not nice to think about but inevitable really. What’s your top number of months/years you’re willing to live with the restrictions for?

I am seeing family and friends but would like to be able to socialise like normal with bigger groups and not worry about social distancing. I don’t care if I never stand closer than 2m to a stranger again but I am not keeping this up with people I know and want to spend time with.[/quote]
I see you won't give an answer to the number. Is 100 deaths per day ok? 200? 500?

The deaths are not inevitable, they are a choice, because they could be avoided.

I would definitely be able (NOT happy) to do this for another 12 or 18 months. Treatment should surely be better by then, and there could even be a vaccine.

Weddings, funerals and christenings are the things I don't feel we can do without.

On other threads someone was saying only 2 prople died today etc etc so 16 is a climb.

The rolling average is 10

Funerals in particular. As sad as it is, a wedding or christening can be postponed. A funeral cannot.

Given people who are unable to social distance in work don't have to, I think the same should apply for funerals.

I say this as someone who personally could care less about death customs. But they're so important to those who do, it feels so cruel.

A friend in her 30s lost her mum and the thought of a funeral restricted to just a handful of people, for someone that young breaks my heart.

According to Zoe there are 11 cases in my borough at present. Continues to be difficult to get a Drs or dentist apt and none of us need treatment. Few routine hospital appointments. What are all the staff doing exactly?

It’s not about being OK with cases and deaths going up. It’s about them going up exponentially so that we run out of healthcare capacity (by that I mean healthcare professionals - doctors and nurses who are in finite supply - not empty buildings like the Nightingale Hospitals ). Once cases keep rise exponentially your health care system risks collapsing and you have to lockdown. Why do you have to lockdown? Because no civilised society will stomach masses of people dying at home and being refused admission. If Covid takes over hospitals, other NHS services suffer. You’ll reach herd immunity (maybe 500,000 dead rapidly and quickly, at a gruesome cost). But that’s assuming a ‘good’ infection to fatality ratio of 0.7%, which of course is based on hospitals having capacity and being able to treat patients. The IFR naturally goes up if you can’t admit people for treatment.

So, we return to the baseline premise: you have to control the spread. How do you control it? You prevent ‘superspreader events‘ - large social gatherings- from taking place. after all, 20% of people are responsible for 80% of transmission. You continue to use mitigation measures like distancing and masks. You tweak around with changes so that the virus doesn’t spiral out of control.

OP is speaking from a very individualistic perspective, re: wanting no social distancing between family. For my family members (BAME), family gatherings routinely comprise 20-30 people, multigenerational, bringing together taxi drivers and elderly people. If everyone thought and acted like that of course we’d be in trouble.

We protect NHS so much that we cannot use their services anymore for other reason than COVID-19. It is impossible to get GP appointment with my doctor. I've been trying since April and they still show the middle finger by booking telephone consultation.

People in Cornwall were terrified that we outsiders would bring our plague and block up their ITUs

Have there been outbreaks linked to tourists?

[quote IndiaMay]@LateNightTalk thing is there may never be a vaccine or there could be but in 20 years, or 100 years or more. Everyone has limit on how long they live like this and some have reached it. I reached mine in June, you may not reach yours until December or in a years time or in 2 years time but you will eventually and what then? Do I never see my elderly grandad again? He hasn't got long left. Does my friend who has a toddler who lives abroad with his ex not see his child for 10 years? Waiting on a vaccine could take lifetimes for some people.[/quote]
I reached my limit about 2 weeks into lockdown.

I'm done with all this, I need my life back.

@Racoonworld - sadly it comes down to politics. There are four scenarios as I see it:

1. Keep the restrictions in place but cases and death toll rises significantly over winter. In which case the Gvnt says it is doing all it can and imagine the death if these measures weren't in place. Three cheers for Boris.
2. Keep the restrictions in place but cases and death toll stay low. In which case the Govnt claims this is down to their well thought through and jolly clever restrictions which prevented s much more serious outbreak and death toll. Three cheers for Boris.
3. Ease the restrictions but cases and death toll rises l. In which case the media, social media and many voters claim this is down to a reckless evil policy of easing restrictions that has cost lots of lives. Boo hiss Boris.
4. Ease the restrictions and cases and deaths do not rise. In which case the media, social media and many voters start asking why exactly was the point of the lockdown and restrictions in the first place. Boo hiss Boris.

In summary the decision on easing or not restrictions has very little to do with protecting the NHS but everything to do with keeping Boris in his job.

Some seems to be running ok. My doctors surgery is actually easier to get a telephone appointment than before lockdown!
My blood disorder is done by phone and meds couriered but I'm under the Macmillan unit so I understand completely why they don't want people in there and the waiting area is small
Dermatology... it's a 34 week wait anyway, now with an extra 14 week backlog when I last called
I'm extremely vulnerable so still shielding. It's really hard, my area is under local restrictions, yes the chance of me catching it is low but if I get it and end up with a chest infection or pneumonia I can't fight that off 🤷🏽‍♀️
I honestly don't know what's safe to do and what's not at the minute

I think path of the problem is what’s classed as urgent vs routine.

I’ve had an urgent two-week referral, scans etc. But FIL has been waiting for a ‘routine’ operation he desperately needs.

What's your top number of months/years you're willing to live with the restrictions
Two or three months should do it. Worked for the places that can see past the middle of next week. Isle of Man, NZ (yes they had a recent outbreak but it's already back under control because they took fast action), most of the Australian states, etc.

Basically a couple of months restrictions with closed borders and we'd all be living mostly normal lives.