Protecting the NHS?

[Racoonworld]

Back in March we were told lockdown was to protect the NHS, would be reviewed every 3 weeks and likely to be for up to 12 weeks. Well it is now 5 months later, the NHS never got overwelmed, and we are still in lockdown. Yes I know things are opening up but we still have massive restrictions on our lives, including not being able to hug family and friends and not being able to see more than one household inside (England), which over summer is fine but coming up to winter is obviously not going to be sustainable for most people. Many have had education disrupted, healthcare disrupted, jobs lost, family and friends separated, and I'm sure many more consequences.

What are we all/the government waiting for? There may never be a vaccine or effective treatment. Do they really expect people to live like this for years if there is no vaccine? Surely they need to give us a plan and timeline for what they expect of us or no one will stick to the rules for much longer.

Couldn’t agree more OP!

@AlecTrevelyan006

Flatten the curve

Anyone remember that?

Yes but they now can't have a second spike because they were politically let off with the first one as 'noone knew it was coming' ( apart from everyone who had seen a news report from Italy, we discussed it a work for month before they did anything).

They can not have another 50k deaths.

So ruling that out, what practically would anyone do?

@DappledOliveGroves I won't support another lockdown either. I'be followed all the rules so far, probably stricter then a lot of people as haven't gone into shops or restaurants yet but this is enough now, we need to all learn to get on with life as Covid isn't going away any time soon.

In September parliament are going to be asked to vote to keep restrictions in place for a further two years.

@AlecTrevelyan006

Flatten the curve

Anyone remember that?

Oh yes another good one! Well the curve got flattened, we are pretty much at the bottom of the curve.

What’s your source for that @StopGo?

@StopGo I thought they were voting to extend the power to impose restrictions for two years, not actually keep restrictions for that time?

I don’t think the current Coronavirus Bill expires until 2022, so Parliament wouldn’t need to do anything about extending restrictions until then.

1100 new cases and16 deaths today. Not out of the woods yet.

@Northernsoulgirl45

1100 new cases and16 deaths today. Not out of the woods yet.

The point is though we may never be out if the woods. Covid is here to stay, we may not get a vaccine and if we do it is likely it won’t eliminate it. So what do people want? To live like this forever?

I still hope for a vaccine. I follow all the rules but I am starting to do more. Holidays, meals out, kids activities etc etc.

@Northernsoulgirl45

1100 new cases and16 deaths today. Not out of the woods yet.

what does that even mean?

do you think we can get to zero for either cases or deaths?

Is that what you want?

If that's not what you want, what figures are low enough that we can start getting back to normal?

We didnt protect the NHS, we closed it.

You have to prevent exponential growth of the virus, it's as simple as that. Exponential growth means cases doubling every 3 days, then hospitalisations, then deaths. On 6th March the UK reported 2 deaths Two weeks later it was reporting 500+ a day. If you lift all checks, that's what will happen. Hospitals get busy, healthcare staff get burnt out, you have to lockdown.

The best way of preventing exponential growth is by controlling 'super spreader' events, i.e large gatherings - aka precisely the kind of hallway house we have now. Weddings of 100+ people, large parties, nightclubs, etc. Countries that have opened nightclubs such as Spain have quickly closed them again for precisely this reason.

Are we going to live like this forever? Almost certainly not. I don't think the UK government will be making any more decisions until the results of Phase III trials of the Oxford vaccine - due sometime in October/November. If that fails, then we need to discuss what happens if we 'may not' get a vaccine, but until then optimism seems justified.

Halfway*

Covid is here to stay, we may not get a vaccine and if we do it is likely it won’t eliminate it. So what do people want? To live like this forever?

Exactly which bits of how things are now do you want to change @Racoonworld?

What would you change and how many more cases per day do you think would result, and how many deaths per day are you happy to have?

It's easy to whine say 'things have to go back to normal' but that is what my youngest child says. Adults should be able to think through the complexities, surely?

@Northernsoulgirl45

1100 new cases and16 deaths today. Not out of the woods yet.

"Cases soar by over 1100" How many of those 1100 were asymptomatic? Wouldnt have even known they were ill? Can they really be considered a "case" - it's not like 1100 people per day are being hospitalized.

And 16 deaths per day in a population of 66 million is hardly news either. How many people died today of cancer, meningitis, sepsis, accident, suicide, dementia, heart disease? If we published death rates for everything we would be so scared we would never want to do anything. People arent supposed to live forever.

The issue is that with covid it can rise very rapidly. Yes 1183 is not huge, but what will it be in 3 weeks? In 6 weeks?

It is nothing like the other causes of death you list. Meningitis is in the thousands per year, way lower. Cancer, suicide, accidents, dementia, heart disease, sepsis are not contagious.

We all know covid is not something else, it is what it is.

around 1,600 people die every day in the uk

so today's covid deaths make up a whopping 1% of all deaths

but only covid deaths matter

Of course not only covid deaths matter, this gets said a lot but it is silly.

The issue is covid deaths are the only deaths that would rise very rapidly to tens of thousands without mitigation measures.

@AlecTrevelyan006

around 1,600 people die every day in the uk

so today's covid deaths make up a whopping 1% of all deaths

but only covid deaths matter

You still don't understand exponential growth do you?

[quote Racoonworld]@DappledOliveGroves I won't support another lockdown either. I'be followed all the rules so far, probably stricter then a lot of people as haven't gone into shops or restaurants yet but this is enough now, we need to all learn to get on with life as Covid isn't going away any time soon.[/quote]
What do you mean? Do we all need to learn to live with our ICUs, post operative critical care units and HDUs full of Covid patients again?

@latticechaos

The issue is that with covid it can rise very rapidly. Yes 1183 is not huge, but what will it be in 3 weeks? In 6 weeks?

It is nothing like the other causes of death you list. Meningitis is in the thousands per year, way lower. Cancer, suicide, accidents, dementia, heart disease, sepsis are not contagious.

We all know covid is not something else, it is what it is.

I didnt say it was the same as other causes of death. I'm saying there are other causes of death and people arent terrified of them. E.g. people are losing weight so they dont die of covid. But the (far greater) threat of dying from diabetes, heart disease or cancer wasnt incentive enough to lose weight. We don't publish the death rates of these things - maybe if we did people would take them seriously or become paranoid about them like they are about covid.

Publishing case numbers insolation makes people paranoid about the virus. It is important to look of case severity, proportion of positive tests, hospitalizations also.

You might want to watch Xand Van Tulleken programme on Ch4 this evening (on catch up). It explains why so many in the NHS are pessimistic about the winter virus season.

If they're saying to the government what they said on air, then it's not surprising that restrictions (or capability to impose restrictions) are being retained.

Pretty scathing about deficiencies of track and trace.

Government invited to comment, but declined

Totally agree. I'd also like to know when the rhetoric changed from "Lockdown to protect the NHS" to "Fuck the future,economy and education of kids and teens and blame them for the spread." I've just seen on the local news how some people are terrified of uni students coming back to their city in case they spread it and,shock horror,have house parties because the club's aren't open. People really need to get a grip and realise the young people are the future of this country.