So Covid appears less dangerous in Europe and we don't know why.

[Treesofwood]

www.newscientist.com/article/2252699-covid-19-is-becoming-less-deadly-in-europe-but-we-dont-know-why/

But we are still increasing measures. Why?

Well, there are many possible explanations, OP. Many of the frailest elderly patients were killed in the first wave. If this new wave is mostly among youngsters breaking social distancing rules, then many of them will be mild or asymptomatic.
People’s vitamin D levels will be higher at this end of the summer, so their immunity better.
ITU management has improved, with use of dexamethasone, avoidance of ventilation etc, so death rates have reduced by a third.
Hospitals have scaled up their beds and equipment so can admit cases earlier before they become critical.

I imagine that young people were ALWAYS infected but asymptomatic but at the beginning weren't being tested.

I thought it was due to many many more people being tested now so picking up the mild and asymptomatic cases whereas in April we had no idea of the numbers infected? As well as much better controls now in carehomes and hospitals and the fact that over 2 million vulnerable have been shielding up to the beginning of August. Shielding has paused but most of these people are still being ultra cautious. Community transmission is low in most parts so less risk to the vulnerable. Of course this situation is changing with schools reopening.

Surely it's partly because the very frail and elderly who were susceptible back in the spring have died already?

Yes it's hard to specifically pin down a tested, concrete reason, but common sense would dictate a range of reasons why it is less deadly now.

People need to keep up reasonable, proportionate social distancing and hygiene measures, keep fit, keep spending time outside (yes even though it might be a bit chilly and damp), eat well and take Vitamin D supplements. Which frankly - apart from the social distancing thing - are things people should be doing anyway.

Surely it's partly because the very frail and elderly who were susceptible back in the spring have died already?

No, not at all. There are millions of frail and elderly alive in the UK. The pandemic merely scratched the surface.

Mutating?

The article goes on to state "...while an infectious disease consultant at the National University of Singapore claimed that a mutated version of the coronavirus, D614G, is making the illness less deadly."

Viruses mutate all the time. Originally there were several studies suggesting a number of strains with a severe strain initially hitting Lombardy ...

@mrshoho

*Surely it's partly because the very frail and elderly who were susceptible back in the spring have died already?*

No, not at all. There are millions of frail and elderly alive in the UK. The pandemic merely scratched the surface.

Well, exactly . There's approximatly 67 million people in the UK and excess deaths are currently standing at around 58,000. It's probably just a combination of factors, OP, but we will know more as the year progresses.

Population density

But the key phrase in that @mrshoho were "who were susceptible".

Even in care homes and among the over 80s, people who caught Covid were more likely to recover than die.

Less fat people in Europe?

@Isadora2007

Less fat people in Europe?

Than where?!

Or because we are in summer and respiratory illness are more severe in winter, we don't have hospitals full of respiratory illness in the summer months in non Covid years but come winter and beds fill up. If this is true then I feel for the America's who are struggling in summer.

because in this country elderly were untested & almost forcibly sent back to care home when they were positive & it spread like wildfire in the care homes with the most vulnerable.
Now older & more vulnerable are being (in a majority of cases) being careful & young people (I can understand why they are fed up) are frustrated & want to get back to "normal" social life

Could be any number of reasons why it's not killing people as much. If it continues like this over winter I'll be (surprised, but) happy.

It's a waiting game right now for me.

@Morfin

Or because we are in summer and respiratory illness are more severe in winter, we don't have hospitals full of respiratory illness in the summer months in non Covid years but come winter and beds fill up. If this is true then I feel for the America's who are struggling in summer.

But won't it be the case that because of general mask wearing in public areas, improved hygiene and awareness, and social distancing, we are likely to automatically have a much less severe flu and cold season than normal?

Other than the fact of course that possibly so many people's natural immunity will be shot to bits because they have shut themselves away from other humans for many months

We’re increasing measures? Really?

Most things have opened, work from home advice is over, shielding is paused and schools are opening with no social distancing whatsoever.

I’d suggest it seems thankfully less deadly now because the vulnerable are taking preacautions. It’s also summer.

re the flu vaccine -in our county the NHS stated that they were going to have problems accessing enough flu vaccine because of the timing of corona was a critical period in ordering & production - this announcement was made just prior to Hancock saying that more people should get the flu vaccine -
Hancock is the MP for West Suffolk -guess which county stated this!

HesterShaw1 as the weather turns there will be more people congregating inside and washing hands will not prevent air transmission. Plus all schools are back with no social distancing and with it the need for wrap around childcare (grandparents)
However you are right about shot immune systems. It could be a harder winter as people will be less able to deal with regular winter viruses.

Scorpio, surely it is good news that it appears to be becoming less dangerous? Not sure why the tin foil hat comment? What's doom and gloom about that?
My other post today is that masks in schools could get dirty and increase the risk of other pathogens entering the lungs? Not great, but hardly doom and gloom either.

BTW I didn't even see your first post on this thread.

Hestershaw the rates of death from flu and pneumonia already this year would sadly suggest this is not going to be the case.

Because increased testing is picking up more cases of mild symptoms - over half have even been asymptomatic in some people and very low mortality rate (0.3)

Previously tests may have been used for the more serious cases and therefore case fatality rate much higher.

More here www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53832981

Surely it's the testing? In the height of the outbreak, the only people being tested were the ones bad enough to be admitted to hospital, so it stands to reason that death rates were higher amongst those people?

Whereas now, even if you just get a cough or a bit of a temp, you get a test even if you're not particularly struggling with it.