So Covid appears less dangerous in Europe and we don't know why.

[Treesofwood]

www.newscientist.com/article/2252699-covid-19-is-becoming-less-deadly-in-europe-but-we-dont-know-why/

But we are still increasing measures. Why?

As others have said there are lots of reasons why the death and hospitalisation rate has dropped including. I’ve seen quite a few articles about this in the past couple of days and while there seem to be a small group of scientists who think the virus may already have got less deadly other scientists say that it’s far too early for the virus to have mutated in such a way but then of course there are others who say that it’s been around a lot longer than late 2019... it would be great if it is actually becoming less deadly but we won’t know until we get into the winter months where higher infection is expected.

Along with it being younger people currently getting infected and better treatment options I read one theory that the fact that we’re social distancing, washing hands, wearing masks etc means that the doses of virus being transmitted are smaller so the severity of infection is lower. There does seem to be a correlation between the ‘dose’ of virus that people get and how ill they get.

I agree with all the PP's. Probably a combination of factors. There has probably always been alot of young, asymptomatic and mildly ill people but we weren't testing them and now we are. Better treatment and earlier now too. However I did see a breakdown somewhere of ages testing positive and whilst it was mainly younger people, there was still a fair amount of the elderly so it doesn't really explain why they are faring so well. Who knows really, would be nice if it has gotten milder. I posted a study on the good news thread where they have found a strain with a deletion...the deletion makes it closer to the other Coronaviruses but they don't know if it is in circulation. Let's just hope it continues.

One of the reasons is that people aren’t stupid. They know the virus is here still, so the most vulnerable and who had been shielding have decided to carry on with shielding or bring super careful around people so not to catch the virus.
My elderly neighbour has been religiously shielding since he got his letter in April to shield. a friend of ours is seeing people at a strict 2 m distance too. Very sensible.

I was reading today that it is too fast for it to mutate, but explanations are:

• more testing picking up asymptomatic cases
• lower viral load due to distancing
• better/more prompt treatment
• younger people getting it currently in Europe

However USA suggests that younger people catch it, but then pass it to older relatives who then get seriously ill/die, so the last may be a temporary reprieve.

The EU health leads are worried about young people spreading it widely.

@Isadora2007

Less fat people in Europe?

Than 3 months ago?

The article is about a less deadly strain in Europe, including the UK, not fewer people dying in mainland Europe compared to the UK.

(Also, fewer not less)

I would guess that initially it was spread through all communities, including the frail, vulnerable groups, who became very ill.

Now older people and the vulnerable have been sheltered for months so they haven't come into contact with infected people.

With lockdown eased the only people risking covid infection, are the younger fitter people who are not seriously affected. The vulnerable are still taking extra precautions and are less likely to become infected.

If we went back to March 2020 habits pre covid I expect the rise would be very rapid in all communities

@HesterShaw1

Surely it's partly because the very frail and elderly who were susceptible back in the spring have died already?

I really don’t think that the reason - it doesn’t stack up at all. For that to be the case, a majority of those that were susceptible must have contracted it, and that implies that a majority of the population have contracted it, which implies we are close to herd immunity..., I know some people believe we are, but with antibody levels at 7% (even accepting that antibody levels quite likely understate actual levels of infection), we’re a long way from that unfortunately when you compare to antibody levels in some hotspots which are 60-70%.

Although care homes were badly affected, only a minority actually had outbreaks. Also, there have been 2.2m people shielding since March, the vast majority of whom have broadly complied with advice. And there are many, many millions of others who are elderly or otherwise at risk who have generally been pretty careful.

The most likely explanation is very straightforward - those that are at risk are being much more careful in general than those that aren’t.

The worst thing we could do is assume that the threat had gone away and that we somehow have either herd immunity or the virus has mutated into a more benign form - neither of which there is any evidence for - only for those who have been careful to emerge and discover we were wrong!

@Treesofwood

... the rates of death from flu and pneumonia already this year would sadly suggest this is not going to be the case.

As I’ve posted elsewhere, the current “flu/pneumonia” levels are generally not influenza passed from person to person, but pneumonias that would exist even if we all lived in bubbles....

The most common cause of pneumonia is streptococcus pneumonia bacteria that lives harmlessly in the respiratory tract of a large proportion of the population, but it can turn pathogenic in some very frail and weakened people.

fullfact.org/health/flu-covid-deaths/

I think it will attenuate to the level of a common cold

@CoffeeandCroissant

Thank you for the link... I’ve been trying to stop the misleading nonsense that influenza is killing
more than Covid for a few weeks. It’s a dangerous trope generally used by people with a Covid minimising agenda. I may even use it to start a thread!

@Heffalooomia

• Heffalooomia

I think it will attenuate to the level of a common cold

Perhaps over many years, but there is no evidence to suggest the virus is weakening biologically. I wish it were, and would love it to be as I can’t for everything to get back to normal, but those who believe Covid is weakening are guilty of wishful thinking and misinterpreting the data.

However I did see a breakdown somewhere of ages testing positive and whilst it was mainly younger people, there was still a fair amount of the elderly so it doesn't really explain why they are faring so well.

I suspect the “healthier” elderly are being less cautious and are the majority of those in that age group who do get it.

Surely it's viral load??

Back in March, people were all over each other, hand-shaking, kissing & hugging strangers, people packed like sardines in pubs, clubs, restaurants, churches, mosques, sports stadia, public transport, etc. People spent so much time in close proximity, the "viral load" being passed around must have been a lot higher.

Now, even in "busy" places, people are generally keeping further apart, certainly not hand-shaking, kissing or hugging virtual strangers anymore, generally washing their hands more, etc. So the actual time you're "close" to another person is massively reduced, so even if you come into contact with someone contagious, you're only going to get a fraction of their infected particles being transmitted.

I think the viral load was highlighted very early on as being probably the most important factor, i.e. "how much" of the infection you got.

It stands to reason that if you shake hands or hug an infected person and then spend a couple of hours with them that you're going to get more "nasties" than if you stand a metre or two away from them and have no physical contact. Yes, a few infected particles may make their way to you and infect you, but the fewer the particles, the easier it is for your own body to create anti-bodies to fight them.

Surely it's partly because the very frail and elderly who were susceptible back in the spring have died already?

Only a tiny fraction of the "frail and elderly" have died. There's millions of them and only 45k deaths. Also, some areas had very low fatalities which suggest they still have plenty of "frail and elderly". Some old folks homes had no cases at all.

I'd like to think the virus is mutating to become milder, but another alternative (among many) is that our immune system are in a better shape during the summer months.

I believe there's several factors at play. Time will tell how seasonal (or not) the improvement was... (fingers crossed!)

@Isadora2007

Less fat people in Europe?

Have you ever been to Italy or Greece? The "young" may tend to be thin, but waistlines grow massively in middle ages and most elderly are pretty fat. There are actually medical studies saying that getting fat with age is more dangerous than being fat from a young age because the heart and other organs aren't used to the strain when someone puts on a lot of weight in middle age which is a common trait in Med countries.

@Badbadbunny

Surely it's partly because the very frail and elderly who were susceptible back in the spring have died already?

Only a tiny fraction of the "frail and elderly" have died. There's millions of them and only 45k deaths. Also, some areas had very low fatalities which suggest they still have plenty of "frail and elderly". Some old folks homes had no cases at all.

True but the key part is "were susceptible". I know a couple of frail and elderly people who had asymptomatic infections in care homes back at the height of the pandemic. You would think they would be susceptible to Covid19 but clearly something in their biology made them not so. It's not always obvious who is susceptible and why and in pandemics it often is the most susceptible that are affected first. That's of course not to say there aren't still susceptible people out there but it is a valid scientific hypothesis of why death rates might drop later on.

Yes sadly the other part of my post 'is over a period of several decades, if we are lucky' :(

That you Mummabeary. Posters seem to have missed the "who are susceptible" part of my post.

Derbygerbil, maybe we should all take antibiotics, to try to eradicate it (strep)? Even if it is harmless in some people it is dangerous to others. If we all took the antibiotics at the same time we have some chance of saving lives.

Perhaps we need to make a distinction in this case between vulnerable and susceptible
Vulnerable people are those with underlying health conditions they have weak health and any extra burden on their health will be difficult for them to fight
Susceptible people are those who for example have receptors of the kinds that the virus is able to exploit, so people who are vulnerable because their health is poor still might not be susceptible to the virus
people who are susceptible to the virus might have robust health and be able to fight it off

And people are also ignoring the word "partly" in the bit of my post they're quoting.

Obviously I'm not so dumb as to think that the virus has burned itself out already due having killed everyone it was going to kill already.

Ther will be lots of factors at play.

@derbygerbil you don't need to reply to this as I won't be back on this thread. However I must just say you must live a really depressing life? You spend all of your day dashing any positive news that anyone has on covid? What is wrong with you! People need hope etc in times like this. Why would you go out of your way to take that away from people.

At the end of the day you don't actually have a scooby doo about why deaths etc are lower in Europe now. It's all just educated guess work. Let people use good news to bring them some hope for the love of God!