So Covid appears less dangerous in Europe and we don't know why.

[Treesofwood]

www.newscientist.com/article/2252699-covid-19-is-becoming-less-deadly-in-europe-but-we-dont-know-why/

But we are still increasing measures. Why?

@Heffalooomia

Good point, though vulnerable people are more likely to be susceptible.

@Forgone90

False hope is for fools imo.

What @Derbygerbil posts about the influenza figures is important, because there are many people using the comparative death numbers flu vs covid to mislead.

We need real, scientific hope.

Social distancing, masks, hygiene, mitigations, treatment and ultimately hopefully a vaccine DO give me hope.

@latticechaos I'll tell you what, yes there may no be scie tific evidence yet that is is getting weaker.. There is also no scie tific evidence to say its not!

Even if people believed the flu figures it doesn't mean they are going to start licking surfaces etc. However if that hope makes them sleep a bit better or helps their mental health then I can't see the harm in it!

@Forgone90 I'm sorry if you are not sleeping well.

But I think reality is important.

[quote Forgone90]@latticechaos I'll tell you what, yes there may no be scie tific evidence yet that is is getting weaker.. There is also no scie tific evidence to say its not!

Even if people believed the flu figures it doesn't mean they are going to start licking surfaces etc. However if that hope makes them sleep a bit better or helps their mental health then I can't see the harm in it![/quote]
Trouble with being over-optimistic rather than realistic is that you come crashing down further when your "hope" turns out to be misplaced.

Personally, I find it better to be more realistic, that way I'm happy when things go better than planned, but not quite so down-hearted when they don't.

Re people with mental health issues, I think the worse thing you can do is give them false hope as they're more likely to be worse affected when things don't work out as planned.

"Prepare for the worst, hope for the best" is a much more realistic way of living.

"Prepare for the worst, hope for the best" is a much more realistic way of living."

In your opinion.

Well, far be it from me to discuss the meaning of 'realistic'. Actually no one knows what the 'truth' is about reinfection, the effect of the opening of schools, how long immunity lasts, what percentage of people have long term effects, what percentage of people are asymptomatic etc etc.

There are lots of studies going on and there is a thread on here that links to many of them - but many of them are small scale and some of them as with all studies downright contradictory. I'm not abreast of most of them by any means. Some people leap on the most negative, some on the most positive.

@Forgone90

I‘m fine with being positive when it’s based on reality, and the fact deaths are continuing to be low is genuinely something to be positive about.

However, I do have an issue when people post positive news that is misleading and inaccurate, because it’s illusory and potentially dangerous for those who are at risk, and there is a risk of disillusionment when the “good news” turns out to have been based on thin air, and they will be less likely to recognise actual, factually based, good news when it does come.

It sounds like you don’t really care about what’s fact, or what’s fantasy, as long as it’s “good news“! You may want to live in a “post truth” era where the “truth” is whatever you want it to be, but to me, that’s madness.

Do you really think the truth of “news” doesn’t matter as long as it’s “good news”. If so, what about:

“Covid is over because a unicorn whispered in my ear that the fairies had magically conjured the virus up into the clouds, and unicorns and fairies definitely exist (do you have actual proof that they don’t? Thought not!) and they never lie (do you have actual proof they don’t tell the truth? Thought not again!)“

Re people with mental health issues, I think the worse thing you can do is give them false hope as they're more likely to be worse affected when things don't work out as planned.

Precisely.

@Treesofwood

www.newscientist.com/article/2252699-covid-19-is-becoming-less-deadly-in-europe-but-we-dont-know-why/

But we are still increasing measures. Why?

We aren't "still increasing" measures though are we?

We've had 3 months of the restrictions generally being relaxed. Lots of places are now open. As some have been opened, mitigating measures have been put into place such as masks because so many people are now out as are those previously shielding. But overall, we're in a much better place as regards freedoms, being able to do things, today than we were in April/May.

The coronavirus family shows strong seasonal behaviour (not necessarily this one, still too early to tell). The others are not at their strongest in the Summer, show a fall-off anyway in early May and a Jan-Feb peak. Some studies have considered relative humidity being important in this (a window of about 35 percent to an upper limit I can't remember - so not too dry, not too humid). In other words I would suspect this is the fallow period of the year.
One study on these lines here www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200407164949.htm

elderly were untested & almost forcibly sent back to care home when they were positive & it spread like wildfire in the care homes with the most vulnerable

They weren't forcibly sent back to care homes, they were discharged home. Care homes are their home.

And they're not prisons. The residents are allowed out, so they could have caught the virus out and about, too. Nursing homes are a bit different as the residents are usually very close to end of life or have very serious illnesses - and may not be elderly, either.

There was an article in the Sunday Times about this at the weekend, saying that there are lots of possible explanations. One was that because everyone is wearing a mask now, the viral load is that much less, people are catching a "glancing blow" of the virus and it's much less serious. Plus all the other explanations like better treatment, mutating virus and it's mainly the young catching it.

"1. Testing has become far more widely available, particularly the testing track outside hospitals that is more likely to identify cases with mild or no symptoms.

1. Younger people are now catching the virus. Since the start of the resurgence in July, infections have risen fastest in people under 40. Younger people of course face afar lower risk of developing severe cases.

1. Medical outcomes have improved as doctors learn how to best treat this new disease. The use of dexamethasone to cut mortality in severe cases has been a particularly notable advance.

This all looks hugely positive with the upcoming vaccine work that is ongoing.*

twitter.com/martinstabe

It may be because now, August, after such lockdown, is more like back in Nov 2019 in reality, with lowish infection amongst healthy population.

So the first 2-3 months after the soldier athletes returned from the World Military Games in wuhan.

If so, only by mid-September will Europe be at the stage of mid-Jan 2020 then by October : Feb 2020 etc.

[quote Forgone90]@derbygerbil you don't need to reply to this as I won't be back on this thread. However I must just say you must live a really depressing life? You spend all of your day dashing any positive news that anyone has on covid? What is wrong with you! People need hope etc in times like this. Why would you go out of your way to take that away from people.

At the end of the day you don't actually have a scooby doo about why deaths etc are lower in Europe now. It's all just educated guess work. Let people use good news to bring them some hope for the love of God![/quote]

@Forgone90
Just to say that I have seen @Derbygerbil's posts before and have never considered them to be as you say .

There are many posters whose responses I do inwardly groan at on Coronavirus topic as I agree many posters have to turn everything to a negative slant , but I haven't considered Derbygerbil to be one of them .