Why isn’t there more deaths atm?

[Mummypig2020]

Just that really. Obviously cases are going up and have been for a few weeks. Surely there would be at least an increase of people in hospitals by now at least? Or in a week or so are we going to suddenly have hundreds of deaths again?

[quote chickenyhead]@Alex50

So are the low number of deaths down to herd immunity?

I would love to know this. Love to have antibody testing rolled out, it would change everything.

But it isn't, so could be, who knows[/quote]
Antibody testing was done on the Isle of Man. We haven't had any cases for 100 days now, but the results are interesting. I am surprised they haven't been more widely published and analysed

covid19.gov.im/media/1314/preliminary-results-on-covid-19-antibody-testing-on-the-isle-of-man-july-2020.pdf

@chickenyhead

Testing has been done. The most recent Government sponsored study covered over 100,000 people and indicated that 6% of the population had antibodies, rising to 13% in London.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/react-2-study-of-coronavirus-antibodies-june-2020-results/react-2-real-time-assessment-of-community-transmission-prevalence-of-coronavirus-covid-19-antibodies-in-june-2020

@Wecumasathree

Thank you - that’s interesting, particularly that around 3/4s of those who tested positive had antibodies, indicating whereas there may be some who recover without producing antibodies, most do, perhaps more than the 3/4s as some will
have lost their antibodies over time (though their B cells would hopefully mean they would readily re-produce them if necessary).

Expert comments about current case rate, hospitalisation rate and death rate:

(TLDR: more testing picking up more cases including milder and asymptomatic, younger average age of cases, better treatments, possibility of mutation to milder version but need evidence for this and one of the 4 experts quoted says this is not a reason)
www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-comments-about-current-case-rate-hospitalisation-rate-and-death-rate/

Thread on Florida:

"In June, after reopening, #SARSCoV2 #COVID19 cases in Florida began to rise. Hospitalisations & deaths, however, stayed low.

Perhaps it just wasn't so bad after all? Perhaps something had changed?

We see similar trends in Europe now. So what happened in Florida?
Let's see"

mobile.twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1296080742607355904

I am sure I saw something by ONS last week that estimated about 7m people had antibodies

Signs of a rise in hospital admissions and deaths in Spain following their rise in cases:

"As cases continue to climb in Spain, the country’s health emergency chief has issued his strongest warning since the country emerged from one of Europe’s strictest lockdowns.

“There should be no confusion: things are not going well,” Fernando Simón told reporters on Thursday. “If we continue to allow transmission to rise, even if most cases are mild, we will end up with many in hospital, many in intensive care and many deaths.”

Spain has registered 66,905 cases in the past two weeks – resulting in Europe’s highest 14-day infection rate.

More than a quarter of these new infections have been in Madrid, the centre of the country’s crisis in March and April. “We can’t say that the epidemic is out of control at a national level, but there are some specific places where it is,” Simón added, without giving details.

Deaths have increased across Spain, with 131 lives claimed in the last seven days compared with 12 deaths one month ago. Around 1,400 Covid-19 patients were admitted to hospital in the last week, nearly double from one week earlier."

It's not just about antibodies, lots of people have T-cell immunity which basically means you're not even susceptible to it. So some doctors think that we could actually be close to herd immunity now.

Also, there is 0 evidence that masks work, the virus is thousands of times smaller than the gaps between the fibres in a standard mask, so a mask will do fuck all. That measure was done to pander to the paranoid rather than for any scientific reason.

@CoffeeandCroissant

Interesting thread...

We saw how things went in Italy in early March, with some voices saying: “All’s ok, it won’t be nearly that bad here. Just wash our hands more and otherwise carry on as normal!” A month or so later, nationally our death rate was worse....

Now those same voices are saying, despite the warning we’ve had from Florida, “Look at the low hospitalisations and deaths - it’s all over! Time to move on.”

It’s one thing to make a make a mistake once, but to make it twice is really stupid.

@BeijingBikini

As has been posted recently on this thread:

a) UK antibody levels are in single figures - 6% based on the latest 100,000+ survey;

www.gov.uk/government/publications/react-2-study-of-coronavirus-antibodies-june-2020-results/react-2-real-time-assessment-of-community-transmission-prevalence-of-coronavirus-covid-19-antibodies-in-june-2020

b) It seems that whereas there may be some individuals that don’t produce antibodies, the current evidence is that this isn’t so high as to give herd immunity in populations with low %s with antibodies. Firstly, see the IoM study showing 75% of those infected later having antibodies:

covid19.gov.im/media/1314/preliminary-results-on-covid-19-antibody-testing-on-the-isle-of-man-july-2020.pdf

Secondly, there are the very high levels of antibodies in certain populations, 57% in some Mumbai slums for instance (the relatively low death levels consistent with the low average age of the slum dwellers):

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-asia-india-53576653

Unfortunately, this doesn’t indicate we are anywhere close to population wide herd immunity in the U.K., especially outside London....

Those groups who couldn’t or wouldn’t socially distance over the past few months may well have a degree of immunity, but there are many tens of millions (including 2.2 million of those shielding, 95% of which reportedly followed guidance to isolate) who have lived far more socially distanced lives since March, who won’t have had the chance to be exposed, even if many are starting to become more “social” than they were a month or so back.

So how do we explain such low levels of actual illness in the face of apparently increasing infections?

@Derbygerbil

Thank you for all that!

I would like to know whether we have had it because we were all so very ill in early March.

We have potentially been unnecessarily being over cautious. It would be freeing to know tbh.

@BeijingBikini

You may reasonably dispute the effectiveness of masks, and I don’t believe they make that much difference in shopping scenarios for instance as encounters are generally brief, but your dismissive “Also, there is 0 evidence that masks work, the virus is thousands of times smaller than the gaps between the fibres in a standard mask, so a mask will do fuck all.” isn’t justified:

www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent

As for the size of the virus, yes it is smaller than the gaps in masks, but the virus doesn’t tend to transmit as a solo particle, but within water droplets that are many hundreds of times larger (though still minute). It’s a bit like saying that a fishing net won’t catch a fish eye as it’s smaller than the holes in the net, without appreciating that the holes are smaller than the fish!

So how do we explain such low levels of actual illness in the face of apparently increasing infections?

Our testing has got more targeted... When hotspots are identified, we’re now carrying out a lot of testing focussed in those areas... Anyone can get a test in those places, symptomatic or not, and people are encouraged to do so, so it’s seems reasonable to think we’re picking up more asymptomatic cases than we were. We have only done this widely over the past month or so.

Also, cases haven’t really increased that much - we’re still very low.

@chickenyhead

You can get one for £65.

www.bupa.co.uk/health/payg/covid-testing

@Derbygerbil that does make sense about more testing and picking up asymptotic cases, I also think the more vulnerable are still being extra careful, it’s starting to become very clear how little this virus affects people under 40.

What I dont really understand is arent the antibody studies used to predict the IFR? (If I am wrong on that happy to be corrected). Yet we know not everyone produces antibodies. If it is 25% that don't make them, have any IFR studies made allowances for this?

@BeijingBikini

Erm, there is a lot of evidence that masks do make a difference, if everyone wears one. They are much less protective if you are the only one wearing one, but this is why it is so important that everyone does so...to protect those around them, even if they themselves are not as vulnerable.

www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-07-08-oxford-covid-19-study-face-masks-and-coverings-work-act-now

www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext

www.wsj.com/articles/face-masks-really-do-matter-the-scientific-evidence-is-growing-11595083298

@Alex50

Yes, of you’re under 40 then your risk is extremely low, and Covid is very dependent on age, with the risk increasing exponentially as you get older.

Mortality doubles roughly every eight years, so your average 80 year old has more than 100 times the risk of dying than a 25 year old. However, the risk of death for a 60 year old with Covid is similar to a 80 year old with influenza, so it’s a far from trivial illness for those in late middle age.

@Jrobhatch29

The 25% was one smallish study, and whereas it is enough to give a strong indication that there aren’t swathes of people who’ve been infected without producing antibodies, more evidence is needed before settling on a figure.

The problem with an IFR is Covid is so heavily age dependent, far more so than other underlying conditions, so the IFR in Afghanistan (median age 19) is going to be vastly different to the IFR in Italy (median age 45). Also, progress in medical treatment will have meant the IFR should have reduced since March. And if an outbreak is well controlled and doesn’t overwhelm medical facilities, that will have a significant positive factor too.

That said, the CDC in the US have estimated 0.65%

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-deadly-coronavirus-true-fatality-tricky.amp

Apologies if this has been touched on earlier in the thread - but one strong reason is the change In the way they tally the figures. It was of course daft that you could be hit by a bus 4 months after catching Covid and being listed as a Covid death. But it’s also daft that if you pass away in intensive care 29 days after testing positive with Covid, it’s no longer listed as a Covid death. The old way of counting would have meant 90 more uk deaths today alone.

@Derbygerbil

Thank you

Will order now x

It’s not just about deaths, hospital admissions are really low 33 new admissions on the 8th August in the whole of England’s hospitals, 0 in all of London.

@Alex50

Yes, good news about hospitalisations... I just hope we keep it that way and we’re able to avoid any further restrictions.

If we could understand why, it would help. I see people mixing more and more everyday and yet the numbers keep going down. I do wonder if being outside makes a big difference. We will find out when schools open and through the winter months.