The reality is.

[UserNeedsGin]

...Coronavirus cases across England appear to be levelling off, despite flare-ups in local hotspots, according to estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

An estimated 1 in 1,900, or 28,300 people in England currently have the virus.

This is from BBC News. Chances of you meeting someone with covid is slim. Some people just seem to think it is everywhere. The constant covid news deluge needs to stop, so people can move on and not fret about something they are unlikely to get.

I'm really struggling with the numbers: everybody seems to be counting something else

I totally agree. There's more testing now, which obviously skews the figures. No-one in march was getting tested so it's impossible to know the real figure. Different countries count deaths in a different way, people in hospital with covid isn;t the same as people in hospital because of covid.

That's why I look at hospital admissions, it's the one measurement which remains consistent. It also show that even though we are currently experiencing spikes in places across the UK, those people are not being admitted to hospital. (probably because on average they are much younger than the people being admitted back in March/April).

@Heathershimmer95

“1 in 10 to 20 had it around march and april time”

No. Just yesterday they said 3-6% have had it. Overall.

That’s 1 in 20 to 33 through 2020 so far.

That is averaged across the country. In some parts it is much higher i.e London and some parts much lower. The peak of infections was before lockdown so alot of people/most people all had it around the same time.

@pontypridd

Have cases actually been rising or are we just finding more of them? We have increased testing massively.

ONS survey suggests that cases are levelling. ZOE survey suggests that cases are decreasing.

Does anyone have any factual and reliable information to answer this?

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/england7august2020

covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

I read this this morning. Don't agree with all of it but this bit about cases stuck with me. It is really useless information without any context.

www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/coronavirus-were-paying-for-an-epidemic-of-stupidity/news-story/b403b6fa3b30879654a80d8e5c7aa6f0

Cases, as a moment’s reflection reveals, do not equal sickness, much less hospitalisations. Until we are entrusted with the knowledge of how many are the results of tests on people who show no symptoms, they serve only to strike terror into the innumerate.

Indeed, why do we need to hear these figures at all? We don’t get daily updates for any other diseases. They serve no useful purpose, as we are not given sufficient detail to make our own assessment of their significance, decide on the level of risk they represent and tailor our activities accordingly.

Perhaps the announcements, if they must continue, could give us real information: “There have been 637 new cases today, but happily 480 were young people who had no symptoms and didn’t know they’d been infected. Oh, and only two of today’s cases were serious enough to need to go to hospital.”

@DobbyTheHouseElk

I don’t totally understand the sewage thing. But I have read they have been finding the virus present in poo. So they’d been using the sewage to determine where the next outbreak would be.

Then then started sampling old sewage samples and found the virus to be present as far back as March 2019. This was in Spain.

Yes and I think it was either France or Italy reported the same thing a few months ago.

If it is the case that it was earlier, I've had it twice. Was ill for 5 weeks at Xmas, was ill again in March and still am. Worse this time.

I do think people have been filled with that much hype that the fear is instilled.

Really want normality.

Normality will put us back to March time.

Reality is that most places have epidemic under control. We have to stick with the measures to keep it that way. At least until we see what winter and temperature changes brings.

Refreshing and calm thread. Good to read.

There are over 20 cases at my DH work, so forgive me for still being worried.....

If it is the case that it was earlier, I've had it twice. Was ill for 5 weeks at Xmas, was ill again in March and still am. Worse this time.

That's the thing though if the antibodies don't last, we will probably get it again just like flu and the common cold for some, they get these viruses repeatedly.

I rarely have colds, have had flu only twice in 55 years and I can't remember the last time I had D&V virus.

Actually the figures are quite confusing. We have a local prevalence of 851 cases in what is elsewhere given as a population of 396k approx. This gives a prevalence of 1 in 465.

1. There is also a comment that the local rate is supposed to be half the rate nationally

1. These are only the cases that have been tested and that we know about.

It is very confusing and I can't see how the numbers add up.

@TheCaveCreature

There are over 20 cases at my DH work, so forgive me for still being worried.....

What kind of work is it? There have been cases at my partners work too (car factory - 2 seperate incidents) but so far been contained.

The other thing is potential for exponential spread (sorry). So cases can be quite low at the moment, but as long as there is a scattering throughout the UK, there is a potential for very rapid growth.

So that means that on the one hand, cases can be quite low at the moment, but they could increase very rapidly if conditions become more favourable, unfortunately.

Jrobhatch29

it is food production but there is a problem with car sharing contributing to the spread

sorry, name change there

@Clone

Jrobhatch29

it is food production but there is a problem with car sharing contributing to the spread

Yeah same at my partners work. Funnily enough the people who car shared with the positive cases were negative.

@TheMumblesofMumbledom

Careful Dobby those of us on here that are reasonably sure we had it last December have been shot down in flames many a time this year and called nutters and theorists.

Well since Harvard University conjecture it's been around since at least August last year, and both Spanish and Italian scientists have found evidence of it in Europe last year, then all I can say to that is ... Anyone remember Galileo?

I had the worst case of flu in December, totally knocked me off my feet in a way nothing else ever has. I had the right symptoms. I was ill for three weeks. I don't know if it was Covid because there was no way to test for a disease that didn't officially exist at the time I was ill. It is the only time I have been ill since 2009. And I have not been ill since. But in April a reliable antibody test was positive for Covid antibodies. Go figure. I must have been asymptomatic and that really really bad flu I had was definitely not Vivid because it could not have been in the UK on 21st December when my symptoms started. And the sun goes around the earth...

Essentially, we've destroyed the economy, the mental health of millions, the job prospects and qualifications of thousands for a virus so deadly 70% of us don't even know we've had. The literal definition of insanity.

@yawnsvillex

100% agree.

But sadly the blind obedience and lack of critical thinking with the general public will cause more damage than the virus.

I'm with you OP @UserNeedsGin

I am getting to the point of despair with this ignorant attitude. People who think they are clever dismissing fear of the virus as ‘lack of critical thinking’ and belittling people who have a far greater understanding of the situation, with words like ‘hysteria’

You just don’t get it. This virus has the. potential to end our way of life. We need to work together to eradicate it.

Frankly, whether you and your family die or not simply doesn’t matter. There is far more at stake. Social stability, food security, social order. These are what is at risk.

People who can’t see that, who can only say ‘the numbers are stabilising ‘ or ‘ it only has a 1% death rate’ have got very limited minds, possibly due to being lulled into a false sense of security from living in a peaceful, stable country for so long, observing from the touch line as disasters hit other countries, and feeling second hand sympathy and a smug security that ‘it could never happen here’.

Far from being extreme caution being down to lack of critical thinking, it is quite the reverse. It’s the stupid arrogant selfish risk taking that is down to lack of critical thinking.

I was a research pathologist for decades before teacher training. I understand the long distance modelling. We are totally dependent on a vaccine being developed over the next 2 years. Best case scenario, with a sound vaccine coming, we are 10-20% if the way through this crisis ( and death toll).

Worst case scenario, well, anything up to and including an extinction level event within 3 generations. And yes, species do go extinct because of viruses. And yes, human populations have done so in the past too

I’m not saying it’s likely. But we simply don’t know enough to rule it out. It will only take mutation during a single transmission to change everything.

I am not expecting anyone to retrain as a pathologist now, obviously it take 4 years minimum. But please , open your minds, listen to people who know better than you, accept the rules and regulations that are in place for the benefit of every body. And understand this has hardly started

@Clone

Jrobhatch29

it is food production but there is a problem with car sharing contributing to the spread

If your husband works where I think he works, all the cases are asymptomatic, and everyone who works there is being tested now. This wouldn’t have happened a couple of months ago, Those people would have carried on regardless unless they had symptoms.

Surely that’s the opposite of worrying, it’s reassuring.

Clive. You are an hysteric.70% of people don't even know they've caught the bloody virus. Hardly extinct horizon scenario!

"Worst case scenario, well, anything up to and including an extinction level event within 3 generations. And yes, species do go extinct because of viruses. And yes, human populations have done so in the past too"

Oh for gods sake. I have seen it all now. Extinction level event ffs

Worst case scenario, well, anything up to and including an extinction level event within 3 generations.

And now I’ve heard it all. That’s some next level scaremongering right there.

Worst case scenario, well, anything up to and including an extinction level event within 3 generations

I wonder if they'll have got rid of social distancing by then?

I was a research pathologist
Cool story bro