The reality is.

[UserNeedsGin]

...Coronavirus cases across England appear to be levelling off, despite flare-ups in local hotspots, according to estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

An estimated 1 in 1,900, or 28,300 people in England currently have the virus.

This is from BBC News. Chances of you meeting someone with covid is slim. Some people just seem to think it is everywhere. The constant covid news deluge needs to stop, so people can move on and not fret about something they are unlikely to get.

Scorpio Yes, the WHO stats table includes total numbers of tests and number per 100000 of population for each country. We're one of the highest in the world for testing per 100000 to be fair.

Hear, hear. Thank you for the uplifting threat, OP.

*thread!

@TheMumblesofMumbledom

Careful Dobby those of us on here that are reasonably sure we had it last December have been shot down in flames many a time this year and called nutters and theorists.

I know, I’ve read the threads. Spain has tested is sewage plants and found covid-19 back as far as March 2019.

What a refreshing, balanced thread.

I live in an early hotspot although the worst impact was in other neighbourhoods. The last week before lockdown I was out and about more than usual, going into town and preparing in case we were locked down.

I was relieved a couple of weeks into lockdown when there were no signs of symptoms and I'd passed the point of highest risk of exposure.

As much as I've been vocal on mask threads, I continue to be careful about who I see and where, and distancing. But education needs to return as normal and society needs to continue opening up. Lockdown causes so much economic, social and mental health harm. People are free to vote with their feet and things will be naturally quieter which will help.

People have different levels of risk, different perceptions of risk and different relations. I'm low risk, comfortable with the current statistics against my usual level of social contacts and don't tend to end up in a position of exposing people who are more vulnerable (e.g. elderly parents are at a distance and physical contact is not regular). I need some normality of routines back into my life because that hasn't happened yet due to the nature of my voluntary roles. It's been very frustrating to have my life suspended for nearly 5 months, with no other change other than DCs returning to school on the horizon.

For all the "don't you know there's a pandemic" being trotted out, we ceased to have an epidemic in the UK months ago!

I find it highly plausible that March was the second wave and widespread by December.

DS (9) was unusually poorly spending a week in bed. At the start of it, he had a sweat so bad, I thought he'd wet the bed. He wasn'y right for a long time afterwards and not really back on full energy until March. At the time, I described it as a "bad cold" on his first day off. A third of his class were off at the time (mid-December)

I read an article a while back tracing the Icelandic strain to the UK indicating that the UK had established its own subtle mutation over time. It is possible that the travel from north Italy at Feb half term introduced an additional more serious strain that was a tipping point for cases requiring NHS care.

I hope March was a second wave and that we are further along community immunity than we realise.

@BogRollBOGOF

What a refreshing, balanced thread.

I live in an early hotspot although the worst impact was in other neighbourhoods. The last week before lockdown I was out and about more than usual, going into town and preparing in case we were locked down.

I was relieved a couple of weeks into lockdown when there were no signs of symptoms and I'd passed the point of highest risk of exposure.

As much as I've been vocal on mask threads, I continue to be careful about who I see and where, and distancing. But education needs to return as normal and society needs to continue opening up. Lockdown causes so much economic, social and mental health harm. People are free to vote with their feet and things will be naturally quieter which will help.

People have different levels of risk, different perceptions of risk and different relations. I'm low risk, comfortable with the current statistics against my usual level of social contacts and don't tend to end up in a position of exposing people who are more vulnerable (e.g. elderly parents are at a distance and physical contact is not regular). I need some normality of routines back into my life because that hasn't happened yet due to the nature of my voluntary roles. It's been very frustrating to have my life suspended for nearly 5 months, with no other change other than DCs returning to school on the horizon.

For all the "don't you know there's a pandemic" being trotted out, we ceased to have an epidemic in the UK months ago!

Pretty much agree.

And it's true the epidemic ended here a while ago.

But we have to balance the measure as we open up or we'll have another epidemic. That's not to say everyone should be locked up and scared. They shouldn't. In most of the uk you are actually pretty safe.

It's just recognising there is a whole area between no epidemic and carry on as normal and epidemic.

And it's the inbetween. bit and measures that will orient the epidemic rising its ugly head.

@BogRollBOGOF

I find it highly plausible that March was the second wave and widespread by December.

DS (9) was unusually poorly spending a week in bed. At the start of it, he had a sweat so bad, I thought he'd wet the bed. He wasn'y right for a long time afterwards and not really back on full energy until March. At the time, I described it as a "bad cold" on his first day off. A third of his class were off at the time (mid-December)

I read an article a while back tracing the Icelandic strain to the UK indicating that the UK had established its own subtle mutation over time. It is possible that the travel from north Italy at Feb half term introduced an additional more serious strain that was a tipping point for cases requiring NHS care.

I hope March was a second wave and that we are further along community immunity than we realise.

Agree.

I work in education and see lots of students and also train staff around the county. I saw loads of illness before December alongside what I saw in my role at the swimming club.

Kids racing as they usually do and then not staying full days at Gaza's as exhausted, or coughing or just not able to get their bodies close to what they can do.

Loads of kids around county with gastric flu type bugs that weren't following usual patterns.

Lots of adult staff complaining about sinus pain they've never experienced before and sore throats that numbing spray didn't even touch.

For so many people to have been surprised by the pattern of illness I would conclude that it wasn't the usual illness people have (and moan about )

Yep, my hairdresser told me, when I went in early January (so before all the Coronavirus publicity influencing her), that she'd been ill over Christmas. She said she had a raging temperature, hacking cough that didn't 'do' anything. Couldn't eat, was in bed on Christmas Day semi hallucinating at which point her boyfriend took her to A&E. They did a few tests, told her it was likely to be 'flu or similar and sent her home with the proviso to watch out for pneumonia symptoms. By new year she'd come back to the land of the living but had no taste or smell for a week or so afterwards.

When I went for my appointment in early March, just before lockdown, we were both talking about and were convinced she'd had it. Matched the symptoms almost to the letter.

@Silvercatowner Fri 14-Aug-20 15:57:00
Have I read somewhere that second waves of viruses tend to be more dangerous? I think that was what happened with the Spanish flu at the end of WW1. So that would make sense with the numbers in March and April.

It's not flu - it's a Coronavirus. 25% of colds are caused by a Coronavirus. These Coronaviruses were probably fatal in many cases when they first appeared in humans but now present as a cold. It is likely, I think based on what I have read, that this will follow the same pattern. www.newscientist.com/article/mg24632800-700-what-four-coronaviruses-from-history-can-tell-us-about-covid-19/ An article from the New Scientist - most of it is beyond a paywall but it makes interesting reading.

I’m in West Yorkshire. Cases are higher than average here although where I actually live, there’s been none for weeks & weeks. But I get lumped into a council area with 450,000 people in it & thus locked down. 🙄 the nearest postcode with cases is a 40 minute drive away. It’s infuriating. But regardless, I’m not behaving any differently other than I don’t sit in my friends gardens anymore. I see them in a park. Or other outdoor activity. I’m not more worried or behaving differently. My elder daughter goes to nursery. I go shopping, to the park, to picnics, to local farms, the zoo, we went to an outdoor splash park last weekend & the coast where we met my parents for the day 🤷🏼‍♀️ All feels fairly normal really! Apart from the social distancing & masks..

It probably was here in December because it was spreading in China by then and with open borders it's soon going to turn up everywhere else.

There's different strains of it. The one that hit Northern Italy in February was fatally bad and quickly found its way here.

Touch wood there doesn't seem to be any bad strains going around at the moment throughout Europe. The big ongoing death tolls are across the Americas (and India).

@annabel85

It probably was here in December because it was spreading in China by then and with open borders it's soon going to turn up everywhere else.

There's different strains of it. The one that hit Northern Italy in February was fatally bad and quickly found its way here.

Touch wood there doesn't seem to be any bad strains going around at the moment throughout Europe. The big ongoing death tolls are across the Americas (and India).

Current,y the age of those affected is lower which will affect death rates and the One shielding only ended 2 weeks ago.

A few weeks from now we will or won't have more evidence to back this up. So far there's been lots of talk but epidemiologists haven't found any concrete evidence.

Let's hope the hypothesis is proven though. It'll give even more hope.

[quote IAintentDead]@Silvercatowner Fri 14-Aug-20 15:57:00
Have I read somewhere that second waves of viruses tend to be more dangerous? I think that was what happened with the Spanish flu at the end of WW1. So that would make sense with the numbers in March and April.

It's not flu - it's a Coronavirus. 25% of colds are caused by a Coronavirus. These Coronaviruses were probably fatal in many cases when they first appeared in humans but now present as a cold. It is likely, I think based on what I have read, that this will follow the same pattern. www.newscientist.com/article/mg24632800-700-what-four-coronaviruses-from-history-can-tell-us-about-covid-19/ An article from the New Scientist - most of it is beyond a paywall but it makes interesting reading.[/quote]
Yes @IAinentDead I am aware Coronavirus is a virus not flu. That's why I said 'virus' not 'flu'.

I know, I’ve read the threads. Spain has tested is sewage plants and found covid-19 back as far as March 2019.

Not quite. Of all the samples they took from that early, they found one of the 3 genes they look for in one sample, but only on the 39th round of amplification. It doesn't fit with other data, mainly that there was no increase in respiratory infections around that time or the genomics of the virus which put it's origin in china much later than that.

The most likely explanations are lab contamination or that the test isn't specific enough on that particular gene to discriminate it from other corona viruses after that many amplifications.

LondonJax that was the same time as I had the high fever as I said above. Dh stayed awake all night when I was delirious, he was that worried about me despite him also having it. I was talking absolute drivel apparently.

Yes I'm high risk but I've been back at work for weeks and weeks now. I think I may have already had it and I know that probably won't give me immunity but I flatly refuse to not continue with my life, if I get it again then I get it again.

I've been looking at the travelling tabby site all the way through. Every graph you could imagine.

The key stat for me is hospital admissions. These are currently really low in Scotland and have been very low since the beginning of July. The last day Scotland saw hospital admissions in double figures (10 of them) was 5th June. At the peak of the epidemic there were 200+ being admitted each day.

Cases are rising again yes, but it's now affecting young people who are far, far less likely to need medical attention. Can't find similar figures on the UK page but would imagine the trend is very similar.

Also it shows me that in my whole council area there were only 3 infections reported in the last week.

www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/

It's great that cases are currently low
But we want both cases and hospitalisation to stay low
So it's not a reason to think we can slack off, or do a lot more than we currently do, because then we go backwards, and end up with more restrictions

If we can enjoy where we are now we have a greater chance of keeping that level of enjoyment

@manicinsomniac, thank you!
I agree it's plausible that March and April were already second waves as I guess we all put "weird flu thing" down to just that over the winter. I had flu end of Jan which became bronchitis but never in 54 years have I had a further 6 weeks of breathlessness like I did.
I joke now to dp that had I had my "flu" a fortnight later, the GP would have tested me.

[quote SockYarn]I've been looking at the travelling tabby site all the way through. Every graph you could imagine.

The key stat for me is hospital admissions. These are currently really low in Scotland and have been very low since the beginning of July. The last day Scotland saw hospital admissions in double figures (10 of them) was 5th June. At the peak of the epidemic there were 200+ being admitted each day.

Cases are rising again yes, but it's now affecting young people who are far, far less likely to need medical attention. Can't find similar figures on the UK page but would imagine the trend is very similar.

Also it shows me that in my whole council area there were only 3 infections reported in the last week.

www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/[/quote]
But hospitalisation for any respiratory illness, be that flu or covid, are always lower in the summer months. Whilst everything is looking promising we can't have any idea until we have gone through winter. Let's not count our chickens before they've hatched.

@sockyarn and yet our beloved fm every day tells us its dangerous... So very very dangerous!!

A lot of people don’t want to look at the bigger picture. I suppose it does show just how easy it is to brainwash people with a bit of persuasive language.

@Silvercatowner Fri 14-Aug-20 17:17:35

Yes @IAinentDead I am aware Coronavirus is a virus not flu. That's why I said 'virus' not 'flu'.

But what you said applies to new flu strains - not Coronavirus ones

Why is anything that makes a person uncomfortable scaremongering? Even if it's the truth?
Yet anything positive (even when it ignores any potential problems) is "sanity".

I mean if that's how you cope with this, then fine. But life is scary, pretending it's all lovely won't change the reality of the fact that nothing is certain, everything changes and bad shit happens.

It's not hysterical, we're all going to die bad, but neither is it everything is fine.

Middle ground, find it, stay there.

The pedant in me insists on pointing out that flu is also a virus, it's just not a coronavirus.