The reality is.

[UserNeedsGin]

...Coronavirus cases across England appear to be levelling off, despite flare-ups in local hotspots, according to estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

An estimated 1 in 1,900, or 28,300 people in England currently have the virus.

This is from BBC News. Chances of you meeting someone with covid is slim. Some people just seem to think it is everywhere. The constant covid news deluge needs to stop, so people can move on and not fret about something they are unlikely to get.

The reality from antibody testing is that 1 in 10 to 20 had it around march and april time... And more like 1 in 5/6 in London.

@Jrobhatch29 Is there data to support that? I don't know anyone who has had an antibody test, so is it self selecting?

Totally agree OP

@ohthegoats

The reality from antibody testing is that 1 in 10 to 20 had it around march and april time... And more like 1 in 5/6 in London.

@Jrobhatch29 Is there data to support that? I don't know anyone who has had an antibody test, so is it self selecting?

The ons does weekly surveillance on it don't they? I am sure it is in their reports They said a while back it was 17% in london and 5 to 10% elsewhere depending on where you live. That was when the briefings were still on and matt hancock announced it

You are preaching to the converted here.

@Nellodee

Cases in the UK, ONS data.

Nellodee's graph (page 1 of thread) is helpful, I think.

The steep rise in cases in March/April versus a very gentle rise over the last month or two... steep rise was before social distancing, gentle rise is with social distancing. The danger is that if we remove all restrictions we go back to the steep graph.

You can look at this across different countries here:
91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?fbclid=IwAR30qEvzq11I78qY5WyPOXUOtjUmZdzQL3d-k9gtDLrG6SMyl5EwD0lWmmU
(the plots are based on American Center for Disease Control data). The majority of countries show this initial steep curve, then a drop (usually following some form of lockdown) followed by a gradual rise in cases (partial easing of lockdown).

The truth is we don't know what the second peak would look like in the absence of some sort of social distancing measures, partly because hardly any country has tried this, and partly because there are so many confounding factors (population density and international transport hubs, plus age structure of the population, plus cultural differences like multi-generational households, prevalence of old people's homes, etc.)

I think it's naive to assume that because cases are only rising slowly with social distancing in place, we can relax social distancing and continue to see only a slow rise.

@ohthegoats
www.gov.uk/government/news/largest-home-antibody-testing-programme-for-covid-19-publishes-findings
This is the most recent. It has dropped in london to 13% in latest round presumably as people don't seem to hang on to antibodies

Yes so very low in my area. Under 10 people. It’s good as a start to give breathing room for schools to open.

Yep Op

And of those many are in hospital, care home or at home ill.

Not going round spreading it. The younger asymptomatic ones may be spreading it amongst themselves and building up immunity which will also go to protect us moving forward.

I have found my people....sanity prevails

@Jrobhatch29 thanks.

The younger asymptomatic ones may be spreading it amongst themselves

And to relatives. That's what's happened in the area of GM where my inlaws live. Young folk out and about in Altrincham and Hale, so cases amongst the younger age groups, then next a load of cases amongst their parents' age groups. Fingers crossed not too many are visiting grandparents indoors.

Your right things are going well.

Problem is if we just sod all the measures they won't be.

It continuing to be a good position relies on people realising this and following the guidance as much as they can.

I'm not afraid to leave the house. My town has had 2 cases in 2 weeks.
But I also don't worry about that becoming out of control because in general people follow the guidance.

I do worry that if people give up those 2 people have have spread it much further and much faster. And there is evidence that this is what can happen.

[quote DobbyTheHouseElk]@TheMumblesofMumbledom

My manager was very very ill. ITU for weeks, off work for 6months. Tested for all known coronavirus’ in Dec.

Had all symptoms of covid-19 in hindsight. Still not 100% now. I can’t believe it wasn’t here last year.[/quote]
Also know loads of people who were extremely ill before Xmas. Cough that lasted weeks and many were tested for glandular fever. This was mainly children in ds swim club who are actually all fit and healthy athletes generally.

What a nice thread to read. Thank you for pointing this out OP!

I wonder if they have any data in that antibody test to find out whether education staff are more likely to have antibodies? In the same way they've singled out care home and health care?

Because if that was no more likely than any other profession, it would surely help with confidence around school opening.

Have I read somewhere that second waves of viruses tend to be more dangerous? I think that was what happened with the Spanish flu at the end of WW1. So that would make sense with the numbers in March and April.

Listen to this week's More or Less, it's a positive one:

www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000llw2

But I also think the reality for those of us who have very low community transmission is probably better than those in the lockdown high case areas.

I think I'd feel differently if I lived in Oldham right now.

@ohthegoats

I wonder if they have any data in that antibody test to find out whether education staff are more likely to have antibodies? In the same way they've singled out care home and health care?

Because if that was no more likely than any other profession, it would surely help with confidence around school opening.

They won't do regular surveillance testing or antibody testing in schools.

It's been requested and refused.

@ohthegoats

I wonder if they have any data in that antibody test to find out whether education staff are more likely to have antibodies? In the same way they've singled out care home and health care?

Because if that was no more likely than any other profession, it would surely help with confidence around school opening.

"Also know loads of people who were extremely ill before Xmas. Cough that lasted weeks and many were tested for glandular fever. This was mainly children in ds swim club who are actually all fit and healthy athletes generally."

It is weird as one of my little boys was so ill before xmas - cough, temp, sore throat, sickness. I took him to the doctors and she said there was a nasty virus going round and they were seeing loads ill. She said he had tonsillitis and I remember saying is a cough normal with that and she said no. Antibiotics didnt help it eventually ran its course. He actually had covid symptoms the 2 weeks before schools closed so if he has had it it was likely then. But it has stuck in my head about the doctor saying there was something nasty going round.

Whoops didnt mean to quote you there @ohthegoats

The other important thing to remember when looking at case numbers is that the data from March/April/May is FAR lower than the actual numbers and nowhere near accurate. Only people who were hospitalized had a test (and you had to be very ill to be hospitalized), so on days when tests were saying 1000 cases per day the actual number was more like 100,000 cases per day.

Compared to now, they will be picking up a much larger proportion of cases. So even if only 20% of cases are tested, thats around 5000 cases a day which is much much lower than we had in Spring.

People don't want reality, though.

How many people are being tested in various countries now? Is there any site that gives numbers for different countries anywhere?

Thank you for posting something that reassures rather than scaremongers, OP. I found this map of weekly cases by ward very reassuring. It gives a good visual representation of the huge swathes of the country with tiny numbers of cases.

phe.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076

Thanks for a lovely positive thread OP. Hopefully before long sanity and logic will once again prevail. I’ve enjoyed listening to a Radio 4’s More or Less and The Briefing Room podcasts this week - good to come across some rational reporting and clear-sighted analysis for once, rather than the constant scaremongering of mainstream news.