Why are so many sceptical about a vaccine?

[larrygrylls]

There are currently in excess of 170 vaccines in development against SARS-COV-2 virus, 37 in human trials, 6 in phase 3 trials and one actually approved for limited use (to vaccinate the Chinese army).

Most immunologists expect we will have a vaccine by mid next year latest, and the U.K., at the forefront of vaccine development, has bought 90 million plus doses.

And yet, in thread after thread in this topic, people are saying that we should not continue to take precautions against Covid 19, as we will all ‘eventually get it anyway’.

Is this some form of status quo psychological bias that makes otherwise intelligent people not believe that one day (and not so far away) we will all get vaccinated and normal life will resume?!

www.gov.uk/government/news/millions-could-be-vaccinated-against-covid-19-as-uk-secures-strong-portfolio-of-promising-vaccines

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.amp.html

Because natural immunity to the virus does not appear to last. All vaccines do is replicate natural immunity if that is bad then we cannot have a vaccine.

I actually do not understand the “naturally immunity doesn’t last herd immunity is stupid we should lockdown until a vaccine. A vaccine is herd immunity!!!

I think the fear may have something to do with the fact that new vaccines can apparently take up to 10 + years to establish if they actually work and whether or not they cause detrimental or unknown side effects in that period of time. I'm not a medical professional - just something I read.

Natural immunity may not last, but the vaccine gives a different form of immunity. Hence the word “immunisation”.

There are other coronavirus vaccines, I believe in animal health.

Masses of MN posters want to believe the end of the world is nigh and are virtually wearing a sandwich board ringing a bell of doom.

Because they’re not especially well versed in virology. They don’t understand, for instance, that the Oxford vaccine is based on old school technology: a deactivated adenovirus with the protein we want our body to recognise. It’s well established and has been used for decades (at one point it was compulsory for the US military to be vaccinated against adenovirus). There are literally no safety concerns with that one whatsoever.

Added to that of course that the researchers pivoted off the MERS vaccine they had already been working on beforehand, so they had a head start.

There is also a huge predilection for conspiracy theories at the moment that people are lapping up in droves.

If and when the vaccine is rolled out we will need a huge public information campaign about it.

I have a family member involved in developing the vaccine. I have no concerns about having the vaccine. The UK is very good at developing vaccines. It’s wonderful we have such clever scientists working away on this. I’m proud of our labs developing the vaccine.

Common cold is a vaccine but we have never developed a vaccine (granted, it hasn't had the same sort of resources thrown at it.) The virus could mutate rendering it ineffective. Vaccines generally take years to develop (again, throwing resources at the problem helps.)

Actually, I am pretty hopeful that we will develop a vaccine but I do think we have to keep in mind the possibility that it might never happen.

Oh, and the conspiracy theory nutters will probably refuse it anyway making herd immunity tricky.

I think the length of immunity conferred by the vaccine is debatable. However, even if it lasts months, it will reduce the virus down to virtually zero in the community and an annual booster will keep it there.

I am not a biologist but believe that antibodies are not the whole story and that T cells are also stimulated by the vaccine.

Fauci, who is an expert, is cautiously optimistic the US will have a vaccine by year end.

www.scientificamerican.com/article/fauci-optimistic-about-covid-19-vaccines-though-immunity-unknowns-complicate-development/

Yes, he is political but he has certainly not toed the party line.

Sorry no a vaccine gives the same immunity as natural infection just that you don’t get sick first!

Honestly they take the virus make it “safe” in some way and introduce it to your body your body produces an immune response so when you get the virus for real your body is prept knows what to do and you don’t get sick.

But vaccine just stimulate the bodies natural defence mechanisms there is not one around that makes the body do something that it would not do when faced with the actual virus. If we cannot amount an effective immune response to this then we cannot vaccinate unless we produce the worlds first vaccine that is better than any natural response the body would produce ..I mean nothing is impossible but that would be a huge development in terms of vaccines!

@larrygrylls

I think the length of immunity conferred by the vaccine is debatable. However, even if it lasts months, it will reduce the virus down to virtually zero in the community and an annual booster will keep it there.

I am not a biologist but believe that antibodies are not the whole story and that T cells are also stimulated by the vaccine.

Fauci, who is an expert, is cautiously optimistic the US will have a vaccine by year end.

www.scientificamerican.com/article/fauci-optimistic-about-covid-19-vaccines-though-immunity-unknowns-complicate-development/

Yes, he is political but he has certainly not toed the party line.

Don’t forget that people form opinions based on their own underlying biases. If you’re fed of up socially distancing and wearing masks, it’s in your interest to keep saying ‘we may never have a vaccine! we have to live the virus!!’.

On the other hand, belief that a vaccine will be rolled out in the next 6 months (as per the consensus of those in the field) will make some more likely to stick to the guidelines. Why would you risk getting sick from covid, or having a vulnerable family member pass away, when you could’ve hung on just a few more months?

I agree with you op. I have high hopes that we will have a vaccine, I pray that we have one sooner rather than later but understand these things take time.

Also, I think there are 7 in stage 3, not 6! Which is amazing. When i checked about a month or so ago (timing may be off there!) There were only 3 in stage 3 so it is increasing all the time.
Very impressed with the scientists who have such a tough job and am keeping everything crossed that we will at least have the news this year that a vaccine is successful.

Sarah Gilbert from the Oxford vaccine explained that they do anticipate that the vaccine will produce a stronger immune response than natural infection.

The Oxford vaccine uses a chimpanzee adenovirus wearing a sort of "Covid jacket". The body creates an immune response to the adenovirus and typically immune responses to adenoviruses are stronger than those prompted by coronaviruses.

It's really fascinating.

@DobbyTheHouseElk

Natural immunity may not last, but the vaccine gives a different form of immunity. Hence the word “immunisation”.

There are other coronavirus vaccines, I believe in animal health.

Masses of MN posters want to believe the end of the world is nigh and are virtually wearing a sandwich board ringing a bell of doom.

This.

I’m optimistic there will be a vaccine. It is unlikely to be a magic wand but hopefully enough to bring about enough immunity to bring us back to basically normal life.

I was watching an interview with the director of the Wellcome Trust and he said he’s cautiously optimistic of a vaccine later this year. I trust the view of someone eminent like that more than MN doom mongers who know no more than anyone else.

They are not tested properly i.e there is not a placebo group in any of the vaccine trials.

@Comicstar

I'm not sure where you heard that? There is a placebo group in the Oxford trials (and all the other trials for that matter). The placebo group in the Oxford trials are receiving a meningitis vaccine.

I absolutely believe there will be a vaccine. There are already coronavirus vaccines for animals, we've just never bothered creating them for humans before because they weren't necessary.

A lot of the delays to vaccines usually are due to waiting for funding - that simply isn't a problem now, the entire world is throwing money at this. If a vaccine is possible - and there's no reason to think it isn't - then there will be one, sooner or later.

The Oxford vaccine has a huge advantage because it's variably already existed and been tested for a long time. The slight change to make it work for Covid doesn't fundamentally change the vaccine, there's no reason to think it would be dangerous. Sarah Gilbert's own children have already had it. We just need to wait a few months for it to go through the necessary trials and then be mass produced. I'm very hopeful that at least those most at risk will be vaccinated by this time next year.

*basically not variably

The placebo group are given another type of vaccine or medication not nothing at all, for example there is not a group unvaccinated and a group vaccinated and then assessment of effects. My doctor confirmed this when I questioned it.

@Comicstar that's what sunshinegirl just said

@Comicstar

The placebo group are given another type of vaccine or medication not nothing at all, for example there is not a group unvaccinated and a group vaccinated and then assessment of effects. My doctor confirmed this when I questioned it.

Yes, that’s done so that the recipients of the placebo can’t work out which group they’re in and so modify their behaviour accordingly.

The note of caution is because until one is shown to be effective and safe, it remains 'jam tomorrow'

Even the optimistic scientists are not saying they are sure it will work (likelihood depends on who was speaking and when, but it's 50-80% chance) nor when it could be rolled out.

So it's 'hope for the best, prepare for the worst'

Having had a child who had a life threatening reaction to a vaccine I’d be wary, also we lost a family friends child to the whooping cough vaccine in the 70’s. However science has moved on and the current situation with Coronavirus is untenable so I’m open to it, just not completely blind to the fact that it could have complications.

I am skeptical but just to say yes there is a little placebo for oxford it is the meningitis jab.

"The placebo group are given another type of vaccine"

They're using the MenACWY shot normally given to teens, but which most adults have not previously received (it only rolled out in 2015). So everyone is getting an actual vaccine which they have not had before, and either group might get side effects.

And if you're in the placebo group, you won't get any of the risk/benefit of the trial vaccine, but you do get a protection from some meningitis

Redolent could you explain what you mean by "modify behaviour" please.

Having read up on the Oxford vaccine, I have TOTAL faith in them and strongly believe that I will have been vaccinated by this time next year.

In fact, when I was deep in thought about it earlier today, I actually came to the conclusion that I am so optimistic about it that I will be completely devastated if it doesn’t go ahead for any reason, as it’s basically keeping me going through all of this.

Sarah Gilbert is a true modern hero and I hope she gets a knighthood for her work, along with everyone else in her team who must be working to exhaustion at the moment.