Why are so many sceptical about a vaccine?

[larrygrylls]

There are currently in excess of 170 vaccines in development against SARS-COV-2 virus, 37 in human trials, 6 in phase 3 trials and one actually approved for limited use (to vaccinate the Chinese army).

Most immunologists expect we will have a vaccine by mid next year latest, and the U.K., at the forefront of vaccine development, has bought 90 million plus doses.

And yet, in thread after thread in this topic, people are saying that we should not continue to take precautions against Covid 19, as we will all ‘eventually get it anyway’.

Is this some form of status quo psychological bias that makes otherwise intelligent people not believe that one day (and not so far away) we will all get vaccinated and normal life will resume?!

www.gov.uk/government/news/millions-could-be-vaccinated-against-covid-19-as-uk-secures-strong-portfolio-of-promising-vaccines

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.amp.html

I am also very hopeful about a vaccine. The Oxford one is already in production, in the hope that this last testing will be positive, so while the rolling out will be fairly slow just because of distancing (maybe they’ll be able to do it outside?) it’ll be ready to go as soon as it passes.

My worry about it is that this is an opportunity to eradicate this virus if enough people who can have the jab do so. But the anti-vaccers are already talking about how unsafe it is. It’s not. Like others have said, the Oxford one, just for starters, is built on a very well-established vaccine, and then on years of research on MERS. It’s not being rushed out. It’s just getting immediate funding and global cooperation. You can read all about it on the website.

But I hope this shambolic government stand aside to let the scientists explain what it is and how it works because if it does offer protection for a limited time, then it’s so vital that the vast majority get it. Then the virus can’t spread, it can’t have a chance to mutate, and it’ll peter out. If anti-vaccers mess up this chance to do that, it’ll be a tragedy.

I do hope that, if a vaccine is developed that is effective but confers (relatively) short lived immunity, it be made compulsory for all school children (except proven medical exceptions) if they want to attend school. Given the age related morbidity of Covid, it would not be fair to expose middle aged teachers to Covid based on the non scientific parental whims.

The below is an interesting link for those sceptical because we do not yet have an HIV vaccine.

www.historyofvaccines.org/content/articles/development-hiv-vaccines

The basics are that no one has eliminated an HIV through an immune response, so vaccine makers do not know what to model and, in addition, HIV mutates very rapidly. Nonetheless, they did produce a vaccine with 31% efficiency and are slowly moving towards a more effective vaccine.

With Covid, most people recover via a normal immune response and there are already animal vaccines to Corona viruses. In addition, it mutates very slowly.

I’m generally vaccine cautious but optimistic a vaccine digs us out a hole. I feel the elderly will have little quality of life until we get one. We are clever people and will work that out

However I don’t particularly want the vaccine myself - and it might be every six months. I’m very low risk and my kids are too and it will take a lot to convince me we should force anyone into any vaccine for a minority. I know that sounds harsh but it’s a dangerous path.

So I’m hoping the vaccine actually works in those who need it.

larry I completely disagree. We should not force young children into any vaccine for the sake of others. No vaccine is risk free and we will have no idea what happens if you repeatedly vaccinate before this vaccine is rolled out. I would resign from work and home school my children before doing this and thousands others would too. It is utterly immoral.

This thread gives me hope. Not just good to see the vaccine arguments laid bare but reaffirming to hear non doom merchant chat. I truly believe there will be something next year. May not be one silver bullet but something to start with.

Called,

So you think exposing a 64 year old teacher to Covid is an acceptable risk for them, but exposing your children to a safe vaccine that has been through many layers of trialling is an unacceptable risk for them?

I’m with you too OP, aside from the conspiracy theorists I think it does stem from people who either are struggling with the situation and catastrophising, or who simply don’t want to comply with distancing etc.

I feel we will be largely out of the woods by April, thanks to vaccine development and possibly improved test & trace for the remaining cases as not everyone will have it or be able to have it. That’s what I’m hoping anyway!

@Calledyoulastnightfromglasgow

I do hope you’ll reconsider. Vaccines don’t work simply by being taken up by the people who feel vulnerable. Because some people can’t take them, the ones of us who are less at risk, or currently healthy, need to have them on their behalf. It’s not a personal whim, it’s caring about the whole population. In getting vaccinated, you’re actively saving lives.

But the biggest thing that sits uneasy with me is the Chinese opting to vaccinate their army first. Why not the hospital staff who are most likely to come into contact with it?

a) it's the easiest group to order to participate
b) they are more expendable than HCPs (if this is a de facto trial)

I also agree with OP, and @MiniMaxi I agree too! And even that time from the start of vaccinations, things will get better by the week, because there will gradually be fewer and fewer people able to spread the virus, so it’ll finally start to feel safer and safer the more time goes on.

“a) it's the easiest group to order to participate
b) they are more expendable than HCPs (if this is a de facto trial)”

This. Plus
c) if the vaccine isn’t effective, then the people being tested are young and fit, so hopefully will be okay if they go on to contract coronavirus.

It sounds sensible rather than sinister

Some posters are spouting total crap again I see.

Ringing that bell of doom. Aggghh, we are all going to die.

There will be an effective vaccine people. This will not be the end of the world as we know it.

@user1477391263

I think there are three things going on with the "there won't be a vaccine" people (an odd stance. There IS a bloody vaccine already. We're just waiting for it to be rolled out, more or less).

1. As a PP said, it's sometimes a stance connected with not wanting to modify behaviors. People who don't want to social distance or wear masks have a strong emotional incentive to decide that "There's no vaccine in the pipeline so trying to control the virus is a waste of time, let's just get it over with since we will have to let the thing burn through the population at some point anyway."

2. Some people love a good apocalypse. This sounds like an unpleasant personality trait, but I think it's common in people who feel trapped in a deeply unsatisfactory life and feel that anything that upends the status quo would probably be better than the present situation.

3. Some people's mental health has gone to pot and they are starting to spiral---believe that everything that can go wrong, will go wrong. I think this is called catastrophizing. It's an awful state of mind to get into, but it's definitely happening with some people right now.

Even when the vaccine is rolled out, it won't do much to stop the above because the goalposts will get moved. Instead of "there won't be a vaccine," we will hear "The vaccine won't work" "The immunity won't last," "It's dangerous and is causing a whole bunch of vague health problems which I believe I am now suffering" "I am not having the vaccine and the government can't make me" etc.

Well said

However I don’t particularly want the vaccine myself - and it might be every six months. I’m very low risk and my kids are too and it will take a lot to convince me we should force anyone into any vaccine for a minority. I know that sounds harsh but it’s a dangerous path.

Called - You don't have faith in science? Additionally, you might be low risk, but your own mother probably isn't - right? With the post above, you're judging her and others like her to be less worthy than yourself and your children. That's the ugly truth. All because you have an unfounded distrust of science.

Qasd

Because natural immunity to the virus does not appear to last. All vaccines do is replicate natural immunity if that is bad then we cannot have a vaccine. “

So we are immunised regularly, as with flu jab 🤷‍♀️

I’m very confident that there will be a form of good, reliable protection and quite soon.

My friend told me the other day to look into what I vaccinate my kids with (she does not have them ) after she had sent me the most dumb conspiracy theory message I basically in not so many words told her to bugger off .... vaccines saves life and I am optimistic there will be one ....I will even pay for it for my parents

the "there won't be a vaccine" people (an odd stance. There IS a bloody vaccine already

I find these people crossover with the 'they can't find a cure for cancer' people, ignoring that there are now many many treatments for cancer.

@Calledyoulastnightfromglasgow

larry I completely disagree. We should not force young children into any vaccine for the sake of others. No vaccine is risk free and we will have no idea what happens if you repeatedly vaccinate before this vaccine is rolled out. I would resign from work and home school my children before doing this and thousands others would too. It is utterly immoral.

I agree with Larry, personally I think if a vaccine is available it should be mandatory in schools and if you want to travel overseas without being quarantined.

You will find plenty of people that agree with you and I'm really ok with that, because then the risk (and any adverse impact connected to your choice) is to your family, which is the correct place for the consequences of your decisions - my biggest issue through this whole pandemic is that the choices we make (not to SD, not to wear masks etc) don't necessarily effect us, they effect other people and that is wrong.

@Comicstar

Oh right so results are flawed then aren't they, because the placebo group isn't really a placebo group. The only study I have found that had a "real" placebo group showed a higher number of deaths in vaccinated infants...food for thought.

Can you explain what you think a placebo is? Do you know what the placebo effect is?

Also, by using well timed boosters, some vaccines can create an immune response which gives longer lasting immunity than catching an illness normally would. I think the Oxford trial have said their best results are from a two vaccine (i.e. initial vaccine then booster) program. So even if getting the illness doesn't give you immunity long term, it may be possible for a vaccine to give you more long term immunity.

Im simply not a fan of ANY medication that dont have years and years of testing behind it. Thats just not possible in 18 months, you cant predict what it could do to peoples bodies in 5, 10 years.

That's true of COVID too though. Ever heard of Dawsons Disease? Someone has a case of Measles and appears to recover from it just fine - only to die years later from the brain inflammation it silently caused. Who's to say that COVID doesn't do something similar?

Given it's foundations, I'd say we have a far better idea of the long term effects of the Oxford vaccine than we do of this novel virus!

I totally agree with the other posters. If you want to give up your job and home school your children @Calledyoulastnightfromglasgow then great. Please do that. But yes, don't expect to be able to travel abroad.
If it only affects you then great. But anti vaxxers are annoying when they expect to lead a normal life potentially putting others at risk.
I'd be the first to pay for a vaccine if I could but I'm a late 20s healthy person so I bet I will be one of the last.

@Qasd

“Because natural immunity to the virus does not appear to last.”

The virus hasn’t been around long enough for us to know how long immunity lasts. It could be 6 months, or a year, or 10, or for life. We just don’t know.

If your statement is based on early reports of people testing positive for a second time after they had recovered, deeper investigation found that what caused the later positive test was inactive viral remnants - dead bodies lying around the battlefield, if you like. These are not capable of infecting other people, and the person themselves had recovered from the acute form of the illness.

As time goes on, we will learn how long immunity lasts. I am confident that there are people studying this right now (e.g. by taking regular blood samples from people who have recovered from the virus and checking for antibodies and T-cells) and that the findings will be used to decide whether and how often the vaccine needs to be repeated.

As someone who has had the flu jab every year for the past 15 years, I’m not worried about it needing to be repeated if it does.

Thinking about paying for the vaccine - I would pay. With my risk level and medical exemption from prescription charges I am certain I won’t be asked to, although personally I think it will be free on the NHS for everyone.

But I would donate to a fund to pay for it to be administered in underdeveloped countries, war zones, refugee camps. I hope someone sets one up.

The SARS H1N1 vaccine was rushed and a number of people who took it ended up with narcolepsy. I think that it will be hard to convince people that the vaccine has come out fast but not too fast.