Why are so many sceptical about a vaccine?

[larrygrylls]

There are currently in excess of 170 vaccines in development against SARS-COV-2 virus, 37 in human trials, 6 in phase 3 trials and one actually approved for limited use (to vaccinate the Chinese army).

Most immunologists expect we will have a vaccine by mid next year latest, and the U.K., at the forefront of vaccine development, has bought 90 million plus doses.

And yet, in thread after thread in this topic, people are saying that we should not continue to take precautions against Covid 19, as we will all ‘eventually get it anyway’.

Is this some form of status quo psychological bias that makes otherwise intelligent people not believe that one day (and not so far away) we will all get vaccinated and normal life will resume?!

www.gov.uk/government/news/millions-could-be-vaccinated-against-covid-19-as-uk-secures-strong-portfolio-of-promising-vaccines

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.amp.html

Could it increase cancer or other illnesses? Make kids sterile? They cant predict it. It may never happen and its all hunky dory which will be great but what if its not?

I don't think you understand the first thing about developing vaccines.

Scientists don't just throw a few chemicals in a mixer and see what comes out.

The ingredients are chosen specifically to do certain things, so along side the active ingredient(s) there will be things like preservatives.

Imagine you have a fabulous recipe for lemon cheese cake. You are asked to make an orange cheese cake. You have never made an orange cheesecake before.

You get your lemon cheese cake recipe and take out the lemon juice and swap it for orange juice.

Now until you taste it you do not know if it has worked but you do know a lot about it, how many calories are in it, that it won't cause food poisoning that it will last a few days in the fridge.

For some vaccines this is what happens, there is a successful recipe so swap the active ingredient and test.

Obviously it is not the same for all vaccines, I'm old enough to remember the race for an effective HIV vaccine, it doesn't exist, but effective treatment has been developed and we know more about the virus and why some people are naturally imune.

@Calledyoulastnightfromglasgow

larry I completely disagree. We should not force young children into any vaccine for the sake of others. No vaccine is risk free and we will have no idea what happens if you repeatedly vaccinate before this vaccine is rolled out. I would resign from work and home school my children before doing this and thousands others would too. It is utterly immoral.

But it’s not for the sake of others. It’s for their sake too.

Look at the threads there have been on here about kids and how much they’ve suffered, through not being in school, MH, missed exams, and there’s also a lot of fear about them getting Covid too. Vaccination helps us all get back to normal. None of how we’ve responded to this has been about what suits individuals. It didn’t suit my son to have his last year in primary ruined or my husband to not be able to work for months or for me to be made redundant but they all happened “for the greater good”.

It’s more immoral IMO not to have the vaccine and stop Society going back to more like normal, or for those who choose not to be vaccinated being happy to take advantage of the herd immunity created by those of us who do.

Me and my kids will be getting it as soon as we can. I have no time for anti vaxxers and their shite at the best of times let alone now.

I would completely support people not being able to get jobs/kids not being able to attend state school unless they have been vaccinated with the only exemptions being for medical reasons.

@netflixismysidehustle

The SARS H1N1 vaccine was rushed and a number of people who took it ended up with narcolepsy. I think that it will be hard to convince people that the vaccine has come out fast but not too fast.

But then plenty of people were fine, my kids had it with no issues.

But I would donate to a fund to pay for it to be administered in underdeveloped countries, war zones, refugee camps. I hope someone sets one up

Strongly agree!

The vaccine should not be the preserve of the rich

There are groups where you need to be more cautious about the vaccines, and do additional trials. These include the elderly and the vulnerable (the very people you would otherwise want to be early recipients) - the flu jab has different forms for the over65s (different adjuvants) because of those differences.

It's about 60% coverage that's needed, isn't it?

The whole thing hinges on a cost-benefit analysis, because rolling out a huge vaccination programme costs enormous amounts of money. There's very unlikely to be a financial justification for vaccinating large amounts of people from covid so even if there does turn out to be an effective vaccine (which is something of a long shot in itself) the question then will be whether they mass produce it, whether they offer it only to certain groups etc.

An interesting thing will be if governments use the vaccine as inoculation against the fear they themselves have infected their populations with. If governments feel that offering the vaccine will be their get-out clause then I can see some governments opting for it, even if it's not very effective (like the flu vaccine) as a way of releasing everyone from the ever-spiralling nonsense of lockdown. Of course, if the vaccine fails and a certain number of people get infected anyway, then the government can say 'oh well, we tried.'

It works for the flu, so it could probably work for covid and I'd be ok with it as a strategy.

All vaccines do is replicate natural immunity if that is bad then we cannot have a vaccine.

That isn't how all vaccines work actually.

@meditrina

But I would donate to a fund to pay for it to be administered in underdeveloped countries, war zones, refugee camps. I hope someone sets one up

Strongly agree!

The vaccine should not be the preserve of the rich

Exactly.

This is a worldwide problem and the vaccine needs to be a worldwide solution.

I'm old enough to remember the race for an effective HIV vaccine, it doesn't exist, but effective treatment has been developed and we know more about the virus and why some people are naturally immune

Taken 40 years to get to this stage.

Vaccine trials take many years, for a reason, sure in this case, these will be shortened and rightly so but regardless, the vaccine has to be safe and be seen to be safe.
Imagine the harm to existing vaccine programs if any new vaccine had issues? the anti vaxxers would be rubbing their hands in glee.

Lovely if we have a vaccine ready for the public by Spring '21 but realistically, i am not holding my breath.

@PuzzledObserver

Thinking about paying for the vaccine - I would pay. With my risk level and medical exemption from prescription charges I am certain I won’t be asked to, although personally I think it will be free on the NHS for everyone.

But I would donate to a fund to pay for it to be administered in underdeveloped countries, war zones, refugee camps. I hope someone sets one up.

...... iirc most wealthy countries have joined an agreement to pay to roll out the vaccine to all the developing countries It's also self-interest, of course, because people visiting unvaccinated countries could bring the infection back again

@TheDailyCarbuncle

The whole thing hinges on a cost-benefit analysis, because rolling out a huge vaccination programme costs enormous amounts of money. There's very unlikely to be a financial justification for vaccinating large amounts of people from covid so even if there does turn out to be an effective vaccine (which is something of a long shot in itself) the question then will be whether they mass produce it, whether they offer it only to certain groups etc.

An interesting thing will be if governments use the vaccine as inoculation against the fear they themselves have infected their populations with. If governments feel that offering the vaccine will be their get-out clause then I can see some governments opting for it, even if it's not very effective (like the flu vaccine) as a way of releasing everyone from the ever-spiralling nonsense of lockdown. Of course, if the vaccine fails and a certain number of people get infected anyway, then the government can say 'oh well, we tried.'

It works for the flu, so it could probably work for covid and I'd be ok with it as a strategy.

...... COVID has killed nearly ¾ million people globally, caused a global recession, costing trillions

The cost of rolling out a vaccine to everyone around the world is absolutely trivial compared to this

I agree with Larry about making the vaccine mandatory for kids to go to school.

We want all teachers to return ft, including the elderly and vulnerable;
Vaccination of all kids & staff (obvious medical exceptions) would massively reduce the risk to them,
as well as the spread to parents & families

We also want all previously shielded children to return

• so the healthier ones need to be vaccinated to provide herd immunity for those who can't be

Covid hasn't caused a global recession, the reaction to covid has. And you're right that it's costed trillions, which means that countries will need to think carefully about what they spend money on - a vaccine for an illness that has already infected millions upon millions without causing them any problems? Or rebuilding economies, to reduce the numbers of deaths that we know are caused by unemployment, poverty, lack of healthcare and education? The second option would save a much bigger number of lives, but the first option may be necessary in order to achieve the second, because people are so convinced that covid will kill them (despite all the evidence to the contrary) that they won't move without a vaccine.

TheDailyCarbuncle,

Do you not actually know that we have ALREADY bought enough to more than inoculate the whole population?

The analysis has been done and the money spent.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/29/uk-signs-deal-for-fourth-potential-coronavirus-vaccine

I believe that they have purchased a total of 250 million doses of 4 different vaccines.

You are obsessed with the fact that you somehow think the government has some kind of (far fetched) agenda to make people fearful for some nefarious purpose.

Governments in democratic nations want the polar opposite. They want everyone happy, partying and driving the economy forward, so they can be re-elected.

Boris tried the ‘no fear’ approach for a few days. It just didn’t work. Carrying on as normal nearly killed him.

PowerslidePanda
Excellent point.

If a vaccine is produced, do you really expect teachers to agree to teach unvaccinated children (with the exception of those medically exempted)? Should someone middle aged risk their life because of your unfounded fear?

Why would they? What do you think the teaching unions would do?

A vaccine should not be mandatory if you choose to home school and tell others about your choice, so they can make an informed decision about whether they want their children playing with yours?

imo, those who are most sceptical are mainly those who don't want to social distance, wear masks or have any variation from the pre-pandemic life

They include people who have suffered financially from lockdown and the current measures

They think if they convince people there won't be a vaccine ever / for many years, then we'll all give up and go back to "normal"
and resume spending as normal too

There is also a very vocal minority of anti-vaccine conspiracy freaks, who think Bill Gates and a sinister world cabal have hoaxed us all,
so they can microchip everyone under the cover of a vaccination

My NDN, who owns & runs several businesses is presumably intelligent, but believes in all sorts of cabals & conspiracies, so has feared being microchipped even before COVID

We had demonstrators in Berlin against SD, claiming it was about individual freedom, but the banners they had were overwhelmingly about this "conspiracy"

Covid hasn't caused a global recession, the reaction to covid has

And I think we should be thankful for that. The damage of an uncontrolled peak doesn't bear thinking about - it could have been complete collapse

It’s not just the Oxford vaccine either. Countries all around the globe are currently trialling vaccines. I’m in the UAE and they have a massive programme underway for stage II/III trials (I’m not sure which) for the most promising Chinese vaccine - it’s being done in the UAE because of the diversity of the population (racially speaking) and probably also because the UAE has a deal to get the first vaccines if the trial is successful.

This is a MASSIVE global (not just U.K.) effort to find a vaccine, the likes of which have never been done before.

@scaevola

Covid hasn't caused a global recession, the reaction to covid has

And I think we should be thankful for that. The damage of an uncontrolled peak doesn't bear thinking about - it could have been complete collapse

There is absolutely no evidence whatsoever, from anywhere, that a complete collapse would have happened.

The Imperial Model was a model, not a prediction. It was a guess based on practically no data. The fact that people still take it as gospel convinces me that models should be required to be reviewed and declared inaccurate asap because the way in which people are so convinced by it is very scary and has led to a complete and comprehensive destruction of so many lives.

"Covid hasn't caused a global recession, the reaction to covid has"

People don't continue working & spending as normal, just because the government doesn't make SD laws
Without the laws, the economy still suffers, but there are a lot more deaths

COVID is different to other viruses we have to deal with because of the high rate of hospitalisation & ICU to save lives.
In densely populated countries like Italy, where the health system was becoming overwhelmed, lockdown prevented carnage
The NHS had less spare capacity before all this than the Italian system.

We can compare with / without lockdown and mandatory SD:

Sweden, which didn't lock down, has 5-12 x the deaths / million of its Nordic / Scandi neighbours who have similarly low population density and similar non-huggy culture etc
but Sweden's central bank predicts a similar drop in 2020 GDP

Sweden even has 5 x deaths per million of Germany, which has 10 x their population density
and again a similar predicted drop in 2020 GDP

The UK population density is higher than Italy's - and we were following their death curves
So it is reasonable to estimate the UK without lockdown would have multiples of its current death total

So, let’s play the ‘what if we let COVID rip’ game. Would the economy have been ok?

Firstly, there was an estimate that, at the peak, 40% of the population would have either been at home sick or looking after the sick. I suspect the short term peak hit would have been worse than lockdown to the economy. It probably would have lasted around 3 months to develop herd immunity.

There is no question that the health service would have been overwhelmed and most would have received ‘battlefield’ medical treatment at best. It is an open question how many medics would have gone on working without adequate PPE. They have been pretty heroic but everyone has a limit. In addition we would actually have lost a substantial proportion of our health service professionals to the virus.

It is also fairly certain that schools would have closed due to a combination of sick teachers, teachers refusing to teach and parents refusing to send their children in.

Deaths? Again uncertain but I suspect, with minimal medical treatment a few hundred thousand to a million, mostly older but some younger. You could argue that money being passed to children could be an economic stimulus. However the housing and stock market, at least in the short term, would be devastated due to liquidation of the assets of the dead.

I really don’t think the above would have been the optimal strategy, even evonomically.

I just think it's pretty naive to just put all hopes in a vaccine that works reliably for everyone for enough time , as an "end point" to all this.
It would be great, yes, if it happened. For one it would be some incredible science to have got it developed and made at such speed sk that would be just fantastic

But.... Until it happens what's the point of having this as an achievable end point.

Much more realistic to assume we need to live with it and move on and if there's a vaccine that'd be good.

I'm not pessimistic, I honestly couldn't care much less about covid if I'm honest, no disrespect meant, but I just think it's naive to think yes this would be the end.

TheDailyCarbuncle,

You said on another thread and this one that you do not like the Imperial Model and that you produce similar models.

Can you tell me specifically your issues with the Imperial model, please, aside from the level of uncertainty, which will exist in any early stage epidemiological models?

It's not the death rates are the issue.

It's the number of people who wouid have been ill more or less simultaneously and unable to work, with a condition that can take several weeks.

Even if no-one died, the dislocation caused by that level of incapacitation wouid cause considerable damage, and significant additional hardship, as deliveries become patchy and supermarkets unable to restock, many places be unable to open at all because of insufficient staff. And so many services wouid just stop.