Are we delaying the inevitable?

[Slytherin]

I am wondering if we are delaying the inevitable here with continued lockdowns/social distancing etc.
These events surely happen in the world and over history to ensure population reduction and control.
Surely the virus will continue to circulate whatever happens, until it has burnt itself out/finished its natural run?
Unless a vaccine/decent treatment is found sooner.

@SandlakeRd I'm so sorry that you aren't getting the drugs you need and thank you for sharing your story.

I feel so worried and angry about all those who have missed their chance to have cancer detected in the early stages when there's a good chance of treating it. But hey it's Covid donchaknow only show in town.

@LongAndWhiningRoad

Humans are on a J curve which is not the sort of curve you want to be on! Nothing mercenary about it it’s just nature!

Are we? Global population growth peaked in the 1960s. It's been falling ever since. Latest studies suggest it will no longer be growing by the end of this century.

Yes I read an article about how fertility rates are falling and the population decrease is actually a cause for concern in developed countries. www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-53409521

Loads of old people and not enough young people to look after them, pay taxes and work. Maybe a disease which kills the very elderly is the right way to go...

Yes. A worse first wave would've been better. Now we don't have empty hospitals and people won't be as compliant. Pushing it to the winter will make it far harder for the NHS and the outcomes will be the same if not worse

until it has burnt itself out/finished its natural run?
can you explain what you mean by 'natural run' in this instance and do these things even have a natural run?
I thought mostly they've been with us for millennia?

@Heffalooomia SARS and MERS both burned out/ ran their course. It's not unheard of, this one is particularly stubborn

As I understand it SARS and mers although they were also coronavirus have properties which make them behave quite differently from covid

Most hospitals may have reopened but most community services have not. New mums are not having HV visits. No bf clinics. GPs are not seeing patients.

The ED is overrun with people who should have been seen in their community.

It is time we got closer to normal and allowed people to make their own decisions until we have better treatments, or a vax, for this. So if parents want to home school for the next year - crack on. If you find a lump - get yee to the GP for a review and referral if required PDQ. If people want to go to the cinema - great!

Yes let's maintain SD, use of sanitizer and face masks but let's not go OTT on the nanny state. It doesn't help citizens make their own decisions and take ownership of their health and bodies in the long run.

One of the biggest issues we have as a nation is we are overweighted unfit; insulin resistant. This is having an impact on our ability to fight the disease. So if the Gov does anything they should be encouraging weight loss and exercise. However that message is not coming out loud and clear. Oh and community healthcare is still "off" so no way of getting the message out.

Ugh.

MindfulBear,GPs may be not seeing patients in your area,but our GPs are and have been doing a good job of dealing with people remotely,with face to face as an option if necessary. If you have a breast lump - yes,do go to the GP,cos the breast clinic is working here as well,and has been for a while.

Yes I think we are delaying the inevitable in a way. My understanding was that the lockdown was aimed at spreading out the deaths from the virus - so that all the hundreds of thousands of people who would need intensive care would not get it at these time and overwhelm the NHS. I think the gov, and probably the world, has since lost sight of this goal now though m. Now we seem to be intending to eliminate the virus, and whilst that is admirable, it is surely impossible, at least not for years and years. Even a vaccine would take years to roll out worldwide. Eventually they’d surely expect healthy people to expose themselves to the virus rather than rely on vaccination. I don’t think the gov is being honest with people about the fact that they will have to live with the risk of the virus for many years, with or without a vaccine.

Now we seem to be intending to eliminate the virus
I suspect the government always knew that the best they could do is slow down the deaths to a manageable rate and to not overwhelm the NHS
But if we think that eliminating the virus is a realistic goal that will be all the better for them because it distracts us from the fact that their priority is to maintain access to the gravy train for themselves and their rich friends

My GP practice is doing face to face appointments, after a phone call from the doctor, I'm going tomorrow (Sun) which is pretty impressive, they are doing Sun surgeries now.

I would contact the GP if I had any worries, indeed I have done, I wouldn't assume that they are too busy/not working/face to face- part of the problem isn't just services not running, it's that people select themselves out when sometimes the services are up and running, this happened with A and E even though capacity wasn't that bad even in the early lockdown period.

@Jaxhog

Finances, education, both can be recovered but there is no recovery from death.

Quite.

But what about those who die because of the damage done to the economy, are they dispensable?

And to comment more on MindfulBear's post - the one friend I know who has been to A and E ( "the ED"? Are you American,then?) said it was really quiet,so not at all overrun with the people who haven't been able to see their GP.

@Supersimkin2
You can take Prep to stop you transmitting HIV, and there are loads of pills that stop HIV turning to AIDS.

You take PrEP to stop you catching HIV rather than transmitting it.

@fedupwiththeidots
Does the UK government pay for PrEP? nope

If you mean is it available on the NHS, a fully commissioned PrEP programme has been agreed for England following the Impact Trial although roll out in October might be delayed across all clinics due to COVID-19. The 10,000 or so already taking it as part of the trial are continuing to do so.

In Scotland PrEP is available on the NHS to those at high risk of acquiring HIV.

In Wales and N Ireland it's also available to those at high risk as ongoing trials

@FiveToFour ha ha. The ED is how friends and family who work in it, refer to it. In England. In the NHS. And have done for a number of years!!!

I know close friends and family who work in the ED in england and yes they are reporting on the lack of community services which means people are having to go to "A&E" in order to access the support they need.

Not a pretty message.

I think it's like emptying a pot of shower gel. You can squeeze it all out slowly or unscrew the lid and tip it out in one go. The former is better for the NHS to cope, but the end result is much the same. Without a vaccine it's got to do its thing eventually. We can slow it down and prolong the spread in a controlled way or let it rip through the human race.

I dont hold out faith for a vaccine, I think I'm going to catch it eventually and it will either kill me or it wont. But I dont much fancy dieing on a hospital floor.

Once we get to 60-80% infected then that's when it can spread so easily I guess but who knows for sure? No one really. It's all just guesswork

It's Interesting as for years we have been saying the world is over populated and it's growing far to fast to be sustainable...

Here we have a virus that will potentially wipe less than 1%of the worlds population if it was left to its own devices and yet were closing everything down to stop it. Then in 10 years we will be saying again that we're far to overpopulated etc etc.

Now I know its easier to think like that when it's just numbers and obviously it's becomes a different kettle of fish when people's families and feelings are taken into account.

Again I know its really the health services we are protecting, however people are talking about this as if its some world ending event when in reality less than 1% may die.

How are we still getting these sociopathic surrender monkey posts that say "I find Covid restrictions hard so we should shut those millions of people who aren't me away indefinitely and let those people, who also aren't me, die."

No. Sod off. We don't just give in, give up and let British people suffer and die.

What kind of weak-minded, weak-willed defeatist, negative nonsense is that?

Why do you think so little of your country that you don't think the UK can do what the countries who are handling Covid better than us, are doing?

Don't judge this great nation by your own lazy pathetic standards.

We can get on top of this virus, just like other countries are doing, we just have to get a "can do" attitude, do what's necessary, and preferably waste less money on tests apps and PPE that don't work.

It's delaying, the virus will continue to circulate and it will end up killing 1% it's just rather than do it in 18months it will do it over 2-3 years if no vaccine is found. Even mass vaccination isn't going to really stop it as its global so you'd have to vaccinate the globe which just isn't going to happen. So covid deaths will continue globally for a few more years to come.

Humans when reminded of their immortality and that death is only round the corner often panic and go in to survival mode, it's natural. But what will be will be, we were born to die 🤷🏻‍♀️

Fair enough,@MindfulBear!
I've never heard it referred to as anything but A and E,except in the context of eg 'Eye Emergency'
I think from what I've read that there is a lot of variation around the country,

Diseases like SARS and the bubonic plague for that matter tend to be symptomatic very quickly. There it’s easier to stop the spread by getting those people out of circulation.

Covid seems to infect a lot of people without significant symptoms. There it won’t ‘burn’ out because unless you quarantine everyone (look at how well track and trace is doing!) some will always be in circulation.

@Legoandloldolls I really like the shower gel analogy, I think that describes the situation perfectly.

Unfortunately at the minute rather than smoothing the curve so the NHS can cope - which is what we were told we were doing initially, we seem to be trying to eradicate coronavirus completely. Not only is this having a disastrous effect on the ongoing economy, it also is resulting in a lot of non covid avoidable deaths for the future so things like early cancer screenings.

Sticking to the original brief of keeping the curve low is unpalatable because of the number of deaths and the impacts to vulnerable members of society.

But it does seem that the unintended consequences of trying to eradicate coronavirus e.g. more cancer deaths from people who would have survived had they been treated early, long term poor outcomes for DCs who have missed teaching and free school meals, increase in mental health issues etc. etc. are not being included in the equation.

Also flattening so much in summer when the wards have largely remained empty seems strange as people do catch more stuff in winter, so more strain on NHS at already tricky time for them.

We have to pin our hopes on test and track and at the minute that's not inspiring me with much faith.

When that 1% includes a disproportionate amount of your doctors and nurses (especially intensivists, who can't be replaced overnight), has led to the collapse of the health service, which even only briefly would cause thousands of tens of thousands extra deaths (all those which are likely to be attributed to planned pause of some services, plus all the others from complete collapse with no safe treatment), no-on earth is going to be queening up for the cull to happen in this way.

It's also a disease which can cause lengthy and relapsing illness. So also allow for terrible ecomonic cost as services collapse because there are no planned support measures - because those who would be planning the support are also off sick.

Dreadful scenario

How are we still getting these sociopathic surrender monkey posts that say "I find Covid restrictions hard so we should shut those millions of people who aren't me away indefinitely and let those people, who also aren't me, die."

No. Sod off. We don't just give in, give up and let British people suffer and die

Agree strongly

We can get on top of this virus, just like other countries are doing, we just have to get a "can do" attitude, do what's necessary, and preferably waste less money on tests apps and PPE that don't work

I hope that we can learn at lot about how to use well things like local lockdowns and other measures over this first winter virus season - which could be a challenge. I hope we get through it well.

But with some estimates of the exposed population still being as low as 5%, and a small increase in cases we are back to where we were in February. We can turn this around, but not if people do not comply with hand hygiene, and distancing of 2m - only less if you can wear a mask

Interesting article published by Centre for evidence based medicine in April

www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-the-tipping-point/