2nd wave if schools reopen (without improving T&T)

[Lionsandtigersand]

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/03/boost-test-and-trace-this-month-or-risk-second-uk-covid-19-wave-ministers-warned

I found this quite alarming:

The results reveal that should schools fully reopen in September, alongside a relaxation of other measures, and 68% of contacts of infected people can be reached, but only 18% of symptomatic adults are tested and isolated, the UK could face a second wave of infections up to 2.3 times the size of the recent epidemic, with a peak in December

I hope the government is taking rapid action on this but based on prior performance I don’t hold out much hope

Yes so do I, find it alarming.

Dido Harding lying about the test, track and trace figures yesterday doesn’t help. She either lied or is incompetent, or both. But that’s what we have had from the government throughout the pandemic so not surprising really.

Am delighted that areas of the north have started their own t t and t - and hope other parts of the country follow suit. It should have been locally organised from the start (as well as kept going - when was it stopped, in March?).

A peak in December sounds particularly cheery

The report is silly scaremongering. The Guardian has taken the modeller’s worst case scenario which includes schools fully reopening alongside a relaxation of other measures (which has already been cancelled).

Where does the 18% of symptomatic adults tested and isolated come from?! Testing is now widely available and most sick people stay at home anyway.

The reality is the cases are now available real time and the government will take measures as we go along to prevent a huge second wave. It is even possible we will have a vaccine by then (although that is, admittedly, optimistic.

Well presumably 18% is the current actual figure?

Lions,

Well let us take a look!

Here is a link to the study quoted:

www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30250-9/fulltext

The 18% estimate was made using a method of least squares fit to the U.K. data between Jan and mid June this year (unless I am misreading or misinterpreting it?). This covers the peak of the epidemic when testing was not readily available.

It is just not common sense to me to believe 4/5 of symptomatic Covid patients will just carry on as normal.

As I said above, irresponsible and lazy reporting..