For the people who think they've been duped...

[mac12]

I'm not trying to start a bunfight but I'm just curious about this thought process. People who think they've been duped by coronavirus & think lockdowns were a hysterical over-reaction...

• what do you think is going on when countries like China haven't rolled back from their strong stance on this? Do you think it's just to save face? I mean would a country really take a wrecking ball to their economy to save face?
• why have countries like Israel or some US states, which did reopen, decide to start closing down again? Why wouldn't they just crack on and carry on with full reopening if it was so clear that they had been duped & it had all been an overreaction?
• why wouldn't all governments be taking the Sweden line? Our govt isn't averse to the odd U-turn, why wouldn't they do this if they genuinely thought it was safe and they had overreacted?

I'm just wondering why people think governments would persist with this if it was so obviously an overreaction?

I think the conspiracy people think that most of world leaders must be in on something ??

@Notfeelinggreattoday no one is coming out with conspiracy theories here

@TheDailyCarbuncle

I know plenty about viruses and I also build models like the Imperial model so I know exactly how they work, what their purpose is and how inaccurate they can be. I think it's that model that will be held up as the biggest problem and failure of this whole shitshow....

46,736 people died with Covid-19 as the underlying cause to 4 July (I’ve deliberately removed the died “with” Covid figure).

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinjune2020

The latest study of antibodies indicate that 7.1% of the U.K. have Covid antibodies.

www.ukbiobank.ac.uk/2020/07/uk-biobank-covid-19-antibody-study-latest-updates/

A study from Mumbai indicated nearly 60% antibodies levels in some slums (with relatively low death rate likely due to young average age of inhabitant) indicating that there aren’t swathes of people infected who don’t generate antibodies.

Assuming 60% infection for herd immunity, the figures above imply that just under 400,000 deaths would occur... not far off the 510,000 figure from Imperial’s “do absolutely nothing” modelling. Yes, their modelling arguably had some flaws, which is easy to say with hindsight than it would have been in early March, but the figures are standing the test of time!

It’s easy to say you’d have done things differently, (and by the way, IC’s figures prompted voluntary social distancing before lockdown was imposed a week later) but faced with the evidence at the time, you’d have been playing Russian Roulette with 100,000s of British lives if you’d ignored it.

Stockholm scales up to the U.K. equates to 100,000 deaths...

Does anyone know why Belgium faired so badly? Or again is it the way deaths have been recorded?

Buy you wouldn't have ignored it. Social distancing and good hygiene would have been far better than locking us all up. 3500 people at my workplace, with these measures in place there has been not one single case. Smallish sample size but it still holds up.

I think the conspiracy people think that most of world leaders must be in on something ??

I have heard a few times that they believe that all the world leaders over reacted but are too embarrassed to admit it.

I remember reading something about Trump saying that the USA is doing better than Belgium and someone said that the USA wasn’t reporting the deaths as well as Belgium - but I don’t know for sure.

But @Jussayingisall with the numbers increasing all the time do you think everyone would have carried on as normal at work, school etc with just washing their hands and keeping their distance from people. Bearing in mind keeping your distance from people is nigh on impossible in schools as we will find out in September. What about the tube, other public transport, would people have had that confidence?

And @Jussayingisall are people regularly tested where you work, it is possible you have had asymptomatic people?

Social distancing and good hygiene would have been far better than locking us all up

Yes I think everyone would have preferred that. But isn’t that what we’re doing now? And the numbers are on the rise again.

I absolutely loathe the constant trotting out on here that if anyone dares question lockdown they're automatically a conspiracy theorist.

Oh come on don't trot out the asymptotic line. Not 3500 people. If the percentage was that high then there is definitely no need for lockdown as we would all be fine.

No it's not what we are doing now. What a lot of people are doing now is making up for the shit that they have just been through and a lot of people are being stupid and making poor choices. I think we have enough information now that in my opinion if you catch it, you have done something wrong.

So do you think everyone would have toed the line if we were told to social distance and wash your hands @Jussayingisall?

What is your definition of social distancing, everywhere, just at work, school, shops, home?

@Sallycinnamum
I understand but I have heard the most ridiculous conspiracy theories and there seems to be a new one every few days.
So if you are questioning something like lockdown which the majority of experts recommend then you need to have scientific evidence to back it up.
Because if you don’t it can lead to outrageous conspiracies like the aliens punishing us or it can make people too lax about the rules which can increase case numbers and might push us into another proper lockdown which none of us want.

For those of you who don't believe in lockdown, do you believe in shielding?

Of course not everyone would have towed the line but that's just life. People didn't tow the line in lockdown but that's on them. It would have been shops, school as much as you can. We might have needed time to make some places more secure but not 4 months and a lot of taxpayer money.

And how long do you think social distancing needs to go on? What are your feelings on masks?

How would social distancing work on the tube?

So if you are questioning something like lockdown which the majority of experts recommend then you need to have scientific evidence to back it up.

Locking down entire populations to control a respiratory virus is not something humanity has ever really done before, so it's important to ask questions, rather than taking it as an article of faith that it's the right approach. The fact that the majority of experts have a view is not a reason not to question it: some experts disagree, and we should try to understand the evidence rather than blindly following

Masks are fine if they work to help stop the spread. I don't know how long it goes on but my life hasn't been impacted by it as I can do the same as before with just a little more planning. I think there are some exceptions like night clubs etc but they could have had more government support and that support more targeted to those in need. Might be that we persist until we get an effective treatment or vaccine but coming out of lockdown to now having to social distance when we could have done that in the first place seems counter productive to me.

For those of you who don't believe in lockdown, do you believe in shielding?

"Believe" is a strong word. I think lockdowns are necessary in some circumstances to prevent health services being overwhelmed, but aren't a sustainable way of controlling this virus in the long term. Shielding the vulnerable is probably a very a good idea - but it's not realistic to expect people to stay indoors forever

From a scientific perspective perspective lockdown makes a lot of sense.

From an economic, social and cultural perspective it makes less sense.

@jussayingisall I never said anyone in this thread was i was commenting on some of other posts and original Op post if thats ok

@Jussayingisall

I don't feel I have been duped but still as a 40 year old healthy person I have zero to worry about. Infection rates rise cause people are stupid but the fact that this is not deadly to an overwhelming majority remains the case. People need to get back to work and off sky news and you'll see life feels much better and normal

There are people of all ages reporting still ill and unable to work four months on from getting ill. They are known as long haulers. It’s not known if they may become chronically ill. They have myriad symptoms and poor functioning. Like living with flu 24/7. Still unknown how many this is affecting but cause for concern.