What is the 'end' of this going to look like?

[moretolifethanthis2020]

I believed it when we were told it was to 'flatten the curve' to make sure the NHS could cope. I assumed that meant that we had to accept the virus would spread through the country but as long as the NHS could cope, then that was ok. It now seems to be a 'we must lockdown if there are any cases' even asymptomatic ones. Surely it's obvious the virus will spread through the population anytime that more things open up, so I just don't understand how the end will ever be in sight the way we are going?

I feel like I'm at the end of my tether with it all. I don't understand the 'end point' or what the aim is. I also feel we, as a population, are being held accountable for spreading the virus at all....but that's what humans have done forever...viruses are clever.

Is the end point getting a vaccination?

In Japan face masks are normal, you constantly stand apart from others and you dont hug all of your friends

Yet they still get influenza outbreaks in many years.

Something to do with a metropolitan area of 38 million people. tiny living spaces, pushers on the trains, perhaps? Or simply that viruses are designed to spread and.face.masks.are.not.panaceas.

The strategy seems quite clear to me:

• find the level of 'restriction easing' that keeps the virus R level just below 1 - that way it isn't growing, just existing at a low level in the population
• tighten restrictions in areas where there are flare ups and transmission rates are growing
• employ track and trace effectively

Keep juggling this until there is some sort of game-changer e.g. a vaccine that can suppress infection to a permanently low and manageable level (like flu).

The problem is:

• hard to exactly measure R in real time and regionally, so there's always a bit of catch up
• there are always people who want to bend and break the rules, or do so due to poor understanding or other reasons.

I've yet to hear any other sensible suggestions for a way out of this crisis?

Oh, should add, the 'strategy' can be clear, but the 'execution' fail e.g. track and trace!

And that is what the UK is doing. The gov just needs to work on its communication as seems there are a lot of people who either do not know or do not understand still. Bori giving people the impression we'll be ok by Christmas is very unhelpful.

We have to accept this year (and the winter ahead) is pretty much a write off and is just about trying to get schools back while trying to salvage what's left of the economy.

What we need to do is return to some form of normality next year. To do that we'll need better treatments. Ideally some form of a vaccine in place during the first quarter next year, so we can have some semblance of a summer next year. Even if it's just the equivalent of a flu vaccine that significantly minimises risk it'll make a big difference. Otherwise we're writing off another year and the economy will completely fall apart.

Cornflakes yes to that

The end of this is going to look like complete annihilation of the NHS - the effect on mental health is going to be catastrophic

Ignore the (economic) context and (economic) dynamic at your peril.

In broad brushstrokes, the context is one of increasing global and national inequality. The dynamic has been one of wealth distribution from the poor to the rich and this has INCREASED during the pandemic despite collapse and rising unemployment.

The pandemic highlights inequality within and between countries. Inequality leads to disorder.

The COVID pandemic brings its own challenges but how we respond to them is determined existing ways of doing things and may well be overtaken in terms of reordering of social, political and economic life by the already existing problems it highlighted.

Grapes and cucumbers study:

The existential question of where does this all end has to include discussion of whether it is rational and in our interests (not to mention the interests of other species and the planet) to go all out to resume the 'normal' unequal way of doing things at the cost of increasing inequality and compounding problems - that may well have caused and in any case have worsened the 'problem' in the first place.

The psychological impact is that I am struggling daily to connect the existential with the practical - atm DS2 going into year 10 'as normal'. Mental health impact of cognitive dissonance = mind fuck. One or the other is easier to deal with as shown by MN threads.

@lljkk not to our level. And agreed but if the UK adapted some of those norms as a way of life then it would surely help.

@KeepOnKeepingOnAgainandAgain

“ psychological impact is that I am struggling daily to connect the existential with the practical - atm DS2 going into year 10 'as normal'. Mental health impact of cognitive dissonance = mind fuck.”

This exactly. This is the thing that is the hardest to handle mentally than anything else, the cognitive dissonance.

It's a novel (new) virus. We didn't know the implications, the spread, testing or long term risks when it landed here.

How on earth can we plan for it and have an end plan? We're working in the dark and learning all the time.

We need continual surveillance, research and monitoring and to act fast to reduce illness, weighed against with the health of the economy.

@Lua

Why is complete world lock down for 15 days is never considered?

I know it sounds crazy, but if we have a warning, and get enough food, medication, entertainment and whatever and the whole world just shuts it down for two weeks, wouldn't that starve the virus of new hosts?

I would rather do that, than an eternal half ass lockdown....

Wouldn’t it need longer than 15 days to allow for spreading within households?

I'm so pleased I started this thread. Thanks so much for all the replies so far

Am not understanding the amount of people who seem almost shocked that numbers go back up as we relax lockdown. Why is this surprising, so many seem to think that the point of lockdown was so the virus disappeared?!

Also finding myself quite shocked at the amount of seemingly intelligent people who appear to think that we should have a hard lockdown until there is a vaccine, and that the economy would 'bounce back' then. Erm.

Finding it quite amusing too, the amount of parents I know who months back were randomly 'oh September, September is a magical month when Everything Will Be Fine. My kids will go back then.' Who are not in hysterics as apparently September is far too soon and we shouldn't even be considering schools being back until at least...EASTER!

I also thought that the flattening the curve idea made sense. But have not been able to make much sense of anything after this. And cannot for the life of me understand those who seem to want permanent lockdown. Nor those who seem to be almost joyful at the prospect of life potentially being a bit shitty for the foreseeable future, or happy to have something to moan at others about (mask/lockdown police, etc...seem overjoyed to be able to report people for stuff?! Bizarre.). An odd amount seem to be very happy whenever bad news is announced. Local lockdowns 'aha, see, I knew it. Whole country will be back in lockdown soon because people have been daring to leave the house which is so so dangerous and noone should do it because vulnerable people exist and you are literlaly killing them!!!'

Hmm, that was in the wrong thread but sort of fits here, looks a bit glib though given the rest of the serious posts here. The post from the person who works with vaccinations has put my mind at ease somewhat actually.

@BatShite
Just saw you said your post was in the wrong thread but literally, yes to everything you say!!!!