What is the 'end' of this going to look like?

[moretolifethanthis2020]

I believed it when we were told it was to 'flatten the curve' to make sure the NHS could cope. I assumed that meant that we had to accept the virus would spread through the country but as long as the NHS could cope, then that was ok. It now seems to be a 'we must lockdown if there are any cases' even asymptomatic ones. Surely it's obvious the virus will spread through the population anytime that more things open up, so I just don't understand how the end will ever be in sight the way we are going?

I feel like I'm at the end of my tether with it all. I don't understand the 'end point' or what the aim is. I also feel we, as a population, are being held accountable for spreading the virus at all....but that's what humans have done forever...viruses are clever.

Is the end point getting a vaccination?

I totally get where you're coming from OP. The thinking and rhetoric has changed over time and what they're asking for now is unreasonable.

We all remember the graphs back in March when they were banging on about flattening hte curve and the logic was undeniable. NHS can only cope with X cases, we can't let numbers rise above that. Fine.

But the NHS was never overwhelmed. As cases started to fall then the government completely switched tactic to trying to eradicate it - impossible. And the consequence of that is that any other illnesses are being ignored as everyone is told to stay away from their GP and hospital. Cancer referrals down by some ridiculous percentage. In the next few years we will see an increase in people dying from all those other things which have gone untreated because it was all about Covid. The economy is devastated, job losses have only just started, kids out of school.

And the sheer amount of litter which is being generated by all those single use masks, gloves, aprons, cleaning products - doesn't bear thinking about.

And it isn't a vaccine trial that was pulled, it was an anti-inflammatory drug treatment for covid.

But the NHS was never overwhelmed.

The NHS as a whole wasn't overwhelmed, probably because of lockdown. But as someone working in this area, I can assure you that some hospitals reached capacity for critically ill patients and had to transfer them elsewhere.

Oh and people need to come to terms with the fact we're all going to die one day. All of your loved ones are going to die. A death from Covid is no more tragic than a death from anything else.

It's not morbid, it's a fact of life. Saving everyone, always, is just impossible and always has been.

It'll be raining and cold in 6 weeks. If we can make it to Autumn without riots and illegal raves, we should be fine until around April or May next year. If there are food shortages, however, we will see both riots and ram raiding of supermarkets. It's not unlikely that we'll see the army guarding identified key supermarkets and petrol stations by next year. This was even anticipated by covid planning.

@soloula

I saw a thing on sky news the other day. Think it was Ian Dunt saying that the language of peaks and troughs and ends is all part of the programme of social compliance. It's likely to be here for a good few years until we get a vaccine, eliminate or get better treatments. So in order to manage it we need to let people think the end is sooner than later - it was 12 weeks to control it in match, Europe's heading for a second peak (which implies a trough), Bojo and his over by Christmas...if people's liberties and freedoms are being curtailed they're more likely to be compliant about it if its for a finite period (or they think its for a finite period). Look at all of us here talking about an end...

On the other hand this type of programme (dominic Cummings master plan) can be quite damaging. The 12 weeks to control the virus - Many people with just a little knowledge and research of this virus quickly realised there would be no quick fix so lost faith in the government's information or rather the missing information regarding their longer term strategy. Other people took it to be definite and were just waiting to get 'back to normal'. Now you've got both sides pissed off but still divided. The same with this latest 'Over by Christmas' remark. There will be so many people now expecting a normal Christmas when that is really not a realistic possibility.

@SockYarn

I totally get where you're coming from OP. The thinking and rhetoric has changed over time and what they're asking for now is unreasonable.

We all remember the graphs back in March when they were banging on about flattening hte curve and the logic was undeniable. NHS can only cope with X cases, we can't let numbers rise above that. Fine.

But the NHS was never overwhelmed. As cases started to fall then the government completely switched tactic to trying to eradicate it - impossible. And the consequence of that is that any other illnesses are being ignored as everyone is told to stay away from their GP and hospital. Cancer referrals down by some ridiculous percentage. In the next few years we will see an increase in people dying from all those other things which have gone untreated because it was all about Covid. The economy is devastated, job losses have only just started, kids out of school.

And the sheer amount of litter which is being generated by all those single use masks, gloves, aprons, cleaning products - doesn't bear thinking about.

But can't you see that just flattening the curve and then going back to doing exactly what we were doing before would have just led to another huge curve? We know this virus hasn't gone away so why do you think there would be no need to contain it any longer? The NHS would get overwhelmed again within months. Yes we're all going to die one day but I would hope there will be infrastructure in place to deal with it.

stringbean

yes, so my point is it’s much more likely now than 10% because there are now already vaccines into phase 3 which are much more likely to be successful. Your 10% figure comes from drugs entering phase 1, which is much further behind.

And as I previously pointed out, a number of the commercial issues that contribute to the 10% figure are mitigated in this case by governments and companies throwing money at this.

Finally, reallybadidea rightly points out that vaccines in general are more successful than drugs overall.

So all in all, vaccines look like a good possibility in the next couple of years.

Why is complete world lock down for 15 days is never considered?

I know it sounds crazy, but if we have a warning, and get enough food, medication, entertainment and whatever and the whole world just shuts it down for two weeks, wouldn't that starve the virus of new hosts?

I would rather do that, than an eternal half ass lockdown....

@Lua China came close to this in completely shutting down and considering their population have come close to eradicating. We live in a libertarian society and were never going to take those measures.

@Lua sounds good in theory but impossible to work. You need police as criminals would run riot knowing there's no police about (looting buildings, banks, armed robbery). Police out and about in cars means chance of breakdown = need mechanics, petrol etc. or medical help when dealing with said criminals. So that means medical staff out and about. Public transport needed for these people. It goes on ...

Governments around the world are taking a 'manhatten project' approach to a vaccine.

This means throwing money at multiple projects early on, assuming they will all be successful before trials, so that development and manufacture is completed before approval. There will then be a decision based on clinical trials which will then assess which is the best option for rolling out. This will probably be one or two vaccines. The UK government is currently financially supporting 4 vaccines.

Other countries are also developing different vaccine programmes of their own.

It is not a normal process for developing a drug. They have taken measures to take a lot of the time out of how they normally do it.

The early vaccines do not have to be long term. Just providing some short term immunity will be sufficient. The only other criteria is that it is safe and the side effects are limited.

So the two things holding this back are scaled back safety testing and effectiveness testing. Normal constraints on cost and personnel assigned to a project and manufacture process aren't there.

After that its a logistics exercise in distribution, which has its own challenges and issues unique to the crisis.

Lua it’s an interesting thing to consider but the reality is harder. Even that quarantine hotel, which with a small number should have been easy to deal with, caused Melbourne’s outbreak.

Also how do you stop people leaving their homes?

China has more compounds

Yup, we really want to be following China's lead on this one. Armed police in the streets maybe? Locking up everyone who disagrees with the government for "retraining"?

We need to learn to live with this risk. It's just another of the many risks we accept as part of living. Wash your hands and keep your distance - but the world grinding to a halt for months or years is not desirable.

There’s a film that covers this, people glued into a high rise. Pretty grim though.

@Lua

Why is complete world lock down for 15 days is never considered?

I know it sounds crazy, but if we have a warning, and get enough food, medication, entertainment and whatever and the whole world just shuts it down for two weeks, wouldn't that starve the virus of new hosts?

I would rather do that, than an eternal half ass lockdown....

How would that work in places where there is no social security safety net and not working means no food? Or people eat because they buy street food because they have no kitchen or food preparation tools?

The very idea of a lockdown is one that only exists in places which do not have shanty towns and slums and subsistence living.

@SockYarn

Yup, we really want to be following China's lead on this one. Armed police in the streets maybe? Locking up everyone who disagrees with the government for "retraining"?

We need to learn to live with this risk. It's just another of the many risks we accept as part of living. Wash your hands and keep your distance - but the world grinding to a halt for months or years is not desirable.

You have misunderstood my post. Just to clarify I am in no way suggesting we take China's lead. I was merely pointing out how they have dealt with it.

Also do you still believe that all we need to do is wash our hands and keep our distance to prevent this virus escalating to unmanageable levels?

It's a balance. We cannot stay locked down forever as the world's economies would collapse and there would be NHS to fund in the first place.

The very idea of a lockdown is one that only exists in places which do not have shanty towns and slums and subsistence living.

You would think so, wouldn't you? But in Brazil, where the government is being irresponsible, is the grug dealers that are organizing lockdowns and food distribution.... They figure our pretty quickly that at their density they were at much higher danger levels. People dying left and right was the clue....

Why do people talk out of their arses so much? The Government self-evidently does not have a virus-elimination strategy now and is definitely still pursuing a policy of having enough understanding, with tracking and tracing, of where rapidly growing problems are springing up so that it can stop those spiralling out of control, whilst accepting people will still be getting ill and dying. I think some people act deliberately dim as an excuse to ignore advice. A problem like coronavirus is out of control long before that is obvious to the general public. And as for claiming we didn’t need the extra hospitals - if you look at our excess death rates compared to the rest of the world, I would say maybe we did need them, but were keeping people out of hospital until it was too late either to save their lives or to limit long term damage to health!

A little bit forward, two steps back
A little more forward, two steps back
A little more forward, two steps back

In those little forward steps money is being spent and economy is happening. They will keep taking little steps back to avoid big lockdowns, so the little steps forward can keep happening. That's how I see it anyway.

As for an end point? Yes, I think it is vaccinne overall.

And we need to change out culture. In Japan face masks are normal, you constantly stand apart from others and you dont hug all of your friends everyone I've seen on social media you stand apart and now. You are only very physically close to your own household. And high standards of hygiene. 🤷🏻‍♀️ You can see why places like Spain and Italy have more issues (very touchy feely). A lot of us are just idiots. Have you seen the beaches?

*stand apart and bow

So I think us changing our behaviour and actually following advice would also help. Yes there is still risk going and sitting in a restaurant, but if everyone else there has listened and done everything right then the chances of someone having it and spreading it is lower.