What is the 'end' of this going to look like?

[moretolifethanthis2020]

I believed it when we were told it was to 'flatten the curve' to make sure the NHS could cope. I assumed that meant that we had to accept the virus would spread through the country but as long as the NHS could cope, then that was ok. It now seems to be a 'we must lockdown if there are any cases' even asymptomatic ones. Surely it's obvious the virus will spread through the population anytime that more things open up, so I just don't understand how the end will ever be in sight the way we are going?

I feel like I'm at the end of my tether with it all. I don't understand the 'end point' or what the aim is. I also feel we, as a population, are being held accountable for spreading the virus at all....but that's what humans have done forever...viruses are clever.

Is the end point getting a vaccination?

Why would there be civil war and rioting?

Perhaps because younger people might realise that, between Covid, Brexit, climate change and our dysfunctional voting system, they have been completely and utterly shafted?

Not saying this is likely - our population seems to be remarkably docile - but some civil unrest wouldn’t surprise me.

I beleive there will never be a vaccine or highly unlikely there will be an effective one for many many many years (If I try to be optimistic).

I get what the government are trying to do. The NHS will just be swamped and collapse if we don't do local lockdown, limit the lifting of restrictions. Let's not forget the very real impact on NHS staff. They've not recovered from the exhaustion and mental impact from what we've just been through. They won't cope for as long in the next peak.
That said, people in society aren't coping either with the new 2020 life and it's restrictions. So yes at Some point this virus will just run riot through us. Whether that's due to society just stopping following restrictions or governments just doing what's needed for society and opening up more. Health care systems will collapse and fail to cope, which will catastrophic for those that may still value life at that point.
Then there's the ones few or maybe many (Its too early to know) that get left with long term clotting/cardiac problems after their very mild liason with this virus that will have their long term health affected, another pressure on the health care system.
Then there's other illnesses. Everything from mental health to cancer and everything inbetween.
We're just all fucked.
The end is a slow catastrophic demise of life and society as we knew it back in February. We're already on the journey. Life has changed and it will never be the same. Even if we lift all social distancing and return to pre Covid life.
This is the beginning of the end where we are now.

What does the end looks like?

The end will be a decimated society, economy across alot of the world but definately the UK. Mass death, poor long term health. The collapse of the NHS and society as we know it.

If people rioted for Mark Duggan, basically a no good scumbag being lawfully killed by police they can easily riot for this shambles

@RhianFuckingMorris

I beleive there will never be a vaccine or highly unlikely there will be an effective one for many many many years (If I try to be optimistic).

I get what the government are trying to do. The NHS will just be swamped and collapse if we don't do local lockdown, limit the lifting of restrictions. Let's not forget the very real impact on NHS staff. They've not recovered from the exhaustion and mental impact from what we've just been through. They won't cope for as long in the next peak.
That said, people in society aren't coping either with the new 2020 life and it's restrictions. So yes at Some point this virus will just run riot through us. Whether that's due to society just stopping following restrictions or governments just doing what's needed for society and opening up more. Health care systems will collapse and fail to cope, which will catastrophic for those that may still value life at that point.
Then there's the ones few or maybe many (Its too early to know) that get left with long term clotting/cardiac problems after their very mild liason with this virus that will have their long term health affected, another pressure on the health care system.
Then there's other illnesses. Everything from mental health to cancer and everything inbetween.
We're just all fucked.
The end is a slow catastrophic demise of life and society as we knew it back in February. We're already on the journey. Life has changed and it will never be the same. Even if we lift all social distancing and return to pre Covid life.
This is the beginning of the end where we are now.

What does the end looks like?

The end will be a decimated society, economy across alot of the world but definately the UK. Mass death, poor long term health. The collapse of the NHS and society as we know it.

Christ aren’t you a ray of sunshine

The end will be a decimated society, economy across alot of the world but definately the UK. Mass death, poor long term health. The collapse of the NHS and society as we know it.

Blimey. I’m glad some people with vaccine knowledge on here to counterbalance this.

If by "the end" you mean return to normal, then that means a vaccine or effective treatment.

I think even with these things parts of society will change permanently, WFH will become more accepted where desirable and possible, illness will not be something that kids and workers have to battle through and hopefully handshakes will never return.

As for present health services and flattening the curve, if infections spiral, and they can, the UK went from one/two imported cases in York end of January to hospitals on the brink of being overwhelmed Easter weekend, there are at present many more active cases than end January here today, would only take a small few weeks for hospitals to be overwhelmed and if Covid-19 is running riot many other treatments will be suspended again.

So I get why we need to keep halting things because it's hard to get the work/school/freedom/infection rate balance.

And it's pants.
And it's gutting for all for many reasons.

I think the vaccine news is really positive, yes it seems slow but for a vaccine it's really not. Some of the treatments work a bit, for some, probably.

I think on the "other side" many will appreciate medical research and the value of many professions that have sometimes been in the shadows.

It will be a different but possibly better world. The world our children will become adults in will have more global problems to solve I hope it can bring in a new age of international co-operation thinking on the bright side.

I just wish the government was honest with us and accepted that until there is a vaccine we have to learn to live with the virus..

We can see that lockdowns don't actually stop the virus and that we pretty much go back to cases raising the minute we start reopening things.

The reality is that nobody, especially the young, will want to live for month or even years in a world where you can't interact with other people. More lockdowns will kill the economy (not to mention the fact that Brexit is coming) and many people simply won't accept them.

I think at this point Sweden had the right idea, have measures in place (mask, handwashing, encourage social distancing) but don't stop living. Protect the most vulnerable but the rest of us life should go on...

@RhianFuckingMorris That is ridiculous.

Sweden are going through it just as we are.

Lockdowns can get the virus to a very low level whereby an effective test and trace can keep it at that very low level making near normal life possible

But too many people were too impatient to wait for both those to happen , so dragging the whole agony out for longer

The end will be a decimated society, economy across alot of the world but definately the UK. Mass death, poor long term health. The collapse of the NHS and society as we know it.

Christ aren’t you a ray of sunshine

I second the latter post!.

I understand the need to be realistic, but what does the first post serve? I genuinely don't believe the former is inevitable at all and I am l am known for my pessimism among my friends as I have been saying I think this would last for well over a year and possibly 2 years . They all thought we'd be done in 3-6 weeks when lockdown started!

Sorry you feel this way @RhianFuckingMorris

You can't help the way you feel at the end of the day but it might help you if you started looking at the facts as these beliefs seem to be rooted in pure panic.

Vaccine development is going very, very well. There are many different types of vaccines being developed around the world, each slightly different. So even if the front runners experience a major stumbling block, it's highly likely that a vaccine will be developed. Possibly not the "golden bullet" but something that will bring this under control and be a useful tool against it in the future.

Treatment of the illness has developed rapidly in the first six months, we will build on this as time goes on until it becomes an unpleasant but treatable illness.

Even without our current level of medical expertise pandemics do end and the country gets back on its feet eventually. History shows us a pattern and we have no reason to believe this is different.

How will this end? I believe we're all going to have to be patient and accept that this winter will not be fun, but progress with vaccines and treatment will advance step by step and I believe by this time next year Coronovirus will be under control (if not gone entirely) and we'll start the process of rebuilding our economy.

@RhianFuckingMorris

I beleive there will never be a vaccine or highly unlikely there will be an effective one for many many many years (If I try to be optimistic).

I get what the government are trying to do. The NHS will just be swamped and collapse if we don't do local lockdown, limit the lifting of restrictions. Let's not forget the very real impact on NHS staff. They've not recovered from the exhaustion and mental impact from what we've just been through. They won't cope for as long in the next peak.
That said, people in society aren't coping either with the new 2020 life and it's restrictions. So yes at Some point this virus will just run riot through us. Whether that's due to society just stopping following restrictions or governments just doing what's needed for society and opening up more. Health care systems will collapse and fail to cope, which will catastrophic for those that may still value life at that point.
Then there's the ones few or maybe many (Its too early to know) that get left with long term clotting/cardiac problems after their very mild liason with this virus that will have their long term health affected, another pressure on the health care system.
Then there's other illnesses. Everything from mental health to cancer and everything inbetween.
We're just all fucked.
The end is a slow catastrophic demise of life and society as we knew it back in February. We're already on the journey. Life has changed and it will never be the same. Even if we lift all social distancing and return to pre Covid life.
This is the beginning of the end where we are now.

What does the end looks like?

The end will be a decimated society, economy across alot of the world but definately the UK. Mass death, poor long term health. The collapse of the NHS and society as we know it.

Excuse me while I go and hang myself after reading this !!

@everythingthelighttouches

Yes, I believe it's about 10% of trials which result in a marketed product - I think that's probably optimistic: the FDA licensed only 49 new drugs last year, a tiny number of the thousands of trials which are running at any one time. Recent announcement this week of another vaccine trial which has been pulled here . Plenty of trials ongoing at the moment which is great, but it's a case of chucking a lot of mud at a wall to see who can get it to stick first.

Re civil unrest.

Historic patterns show that when unemployment rates get high in young populations you start to have political instability and civil unrest.

If memory serves, that threshold is around the 30% mark.

The danger therefore is that all these job losses - which are predominantly affecting the young - will mean that in some areas we will be approaching this figure.

We also know that some deprived communities will be disproportionately affected.

At this point you only need a small flashpoint to start a chain of events which lead to problems. These can be completely unconnected to covid or related to covid but are to do with economic insecurity and people having little else in their lives to do.

Whereever you look in the world and regardless of the type of government there is: from liberal democracy, to communist societies, to right wing dictatorship the same pattern has held true.

The threat of covid isnt sufficient to stop unrest if other conditions are right.

I don’t doubt that there may be riots, but what on earth would anyone think they’re going to achieve? - the govt. passing an instant Act of Parliament to ban the virus from the U.K.??

IMO the people attending any riots will largely be the twats who enjoy a good riot anyway, since it’s a good opportunity to smash shop windows and steal things.

The army is on standby and SAGE have warned about unrest. www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-raves-and-protests-may-need-army-advisers-warn-jsbk5svn5

When unemployment hits 50% there will be chaos. It’s not going to be pretty.

I saw a thing on sky news the other day. Think it was Ian Dunt saying that the language of peaks and troughs and ends is all part of the programme of social compliance. It's likely to be here for a good few years until we get a vaccine, eliminate or get better treatments. So in order to manage it we need to let people think the end is sooner than later - it was 12 weeks to control it in match, Europe's heading for a second peak (which implies a trough), Bojo and his over by Christmas...if people's liberties and freedoms are being curtailed they're more likely to be compliant about it if its for a finite period (or they think its for a finite period). Look at all of us here talking about an end...

RhianFuckingMorris it does sometimes feel as though we are in an apocalypse movie, but I honestly don't think that's how it is all going to end!

The issue I have is the idea of an 'end'. Its a virus. Viruses dont tend to 'end' even with a virus. A virus is adaptable, changeable, unpredictable, and isnt something humans can control or eliminate. We have a vaccine for flu, but it still kills approx 10,000 people a year. Anyone thinking a vaccine will 'eliminate' coronavirus is being a little unrealistic. This is something we are going to have to accept and live with, vaccine or not.

I don’t think the virus will end, but that doesn’t mean the pandemic won’t.

I do feel we need a clear plan from the government and they need to actually govern. It's ok to assume that most of us on Mumsnet and our peers will have looked into the situation with some level of critical thinking. However, the young generation 18-25, are quite detached from some of the outlets we may use. Maybe that is why Hancock has taken to use Twitter, maybe it will be snapchat/tiktok next .

I do worry that the divide in society will lead to civil unrest. I live close to a perceived 'beauty spot' the Police have been completely overwhelmed by the ASBO that has happened recently. Completely unprecedented amounts of drug use/dealing/assaults/trespassing/littering on a mass scale. One officer explained to my friend there are a huge amount of pent up young people with no clubs/festivals/holidays to go to alongside the drug dealers who need 'organised' events for their own businesses. The 'locals' have almost been 'pitchforks at the ready' and can imagine there is a similar story all over.

That’s still an end to me. End to this current pandemic situation. Vaccine yearly, with flu number of deaths. Economy back to fully operating.

Perhaps because younger people might realise that, between Covid, Brexit, climate change and our dysfunctional voting system, they have been completely and utterly shafted? It's not just young people who have been shafted. Anyone whose personal interests or whose politics are towards less inequality and better care of the environment has been shafted.

[quote stringbean]@everythingthelighttouches

Yes, I believe it's about 10% of trials which result in a marketed product - I think that's probably optimistic: the FDA licensed only 49 new drugs last year, a tiny number of the thousands of trials which are running at any one time. Recent announcement this week of another vaccine trial which has been pulled here . Plenty of trials ongoing at the moment which is great, but it's a case of chucking a lot of mud at a wall to see who can get it to stick first.[/quote]
I believe the 10% figure includes drugs, which typically have a much lower success rate than vaccines. Once you get a vaccine into phase 3 clinical trials the chance of it getting approved is really pretty good - I've seen figures of 65-75% quoted. There are 3 vaccines in phase 3 trials - statistically it is very likely that some or all will be approved in the next few months.