Chris Witty "We're at the limits of the contact we can allow"

[confusedandold]

I've been watching the Press conference and I always find Chris Witty the voice of reason. He is saying that we are at the limit of what we can open without the virus spreading further and we may even have to take a step back. So where does this leave the opening of schools in a few weeks time?

@TheHoneyBadger

I’ve been searching for data but struggling. What I have found is that as of 2017 71.3% of adults were living in households without children. Of the 28.7% living with children a sizeable amount of those will be teenagers or adult children as adult children living with parents is increasingly common.

Although, of course, it won’t feel like it on mn the number of adults with primary age children is very much a minority. Of those some will have sahp, be in private education, some parents will be unemployed.

As a proportion of working age, economically active adults those in need of childcare is actually a relatively small number. Getting those workers back isn’t that big a part of the economy especially considering the % of unemployment that will be necessary in the short term.

Not saying this is the way it should be looked at but from the perspective of an economist that group isn’t going to be massively significant.

Sorry but I think we’re being naive when we assume of course they’ll open schools or we can’t go back to work and the economy needs us. We’re pretty small fry in the numbers game.

There are 10 million under 10s in the uk. You really think that only a "small number" will need childcare?

I've just done the calculations and linked to the figures. Please feel free to check them out.

My calculations are not "how many children will need childcare", they are "how many adults require childcare in order to work."

Government will have the figures (obviously) but politically it’s still a priority. Tg

Perhaps welfare is the element that makes it about more than working parent figures.

I think if those figures stress anyone out it’s worth remembering Whitty’s statement that schools are the priority.

In fact, my calculations are "how many adults will be unable to work if primary schools close, due to childcare issues."

The data is specifically for households with primary school aged children, so I cannot expand that to look at the impact of nursery aged children as well, sorry.

[quote tocancel]@RedToothBrush

If there's no vaccine ever, what do we do? I guess either life changes for ever or we just get on with it until it burns itself out and accept that people will die and the economy is in trouble!

[/quote]
There is going to be a vaccine, most likely the Oxford vaccine will be the first in use. The UK could be the first country to be fully vaccinated.
There are now 140 vaccine candidates being tracked by WHO, do you seriously every single potential vaccine will fail?

Russia is ahead of the Oxford vaccine, they are just waiting approval which should be within the next two weeks.

I'm not an anti-vaxer in any way shape or form, but I have strong reservations about a Russian vaccine. I do not trust Putin. I think he is capable of all manner of sly tricks.

There is going to be a vaccine, most likely the Oxford vaccine will be the first in use. The UK could be the first country to be fully vaccinated.

I have no confidence in this government to organise anything, let alone an efficient, timely, sensible mass vaccination programme.

If Oxford are successful doesn't the building they will be made in still need to be built, or has this been resolved. When they first started talking about the vaccine the building wasn't due to either start or finish September 2021.

I'm not an anti-vaxxer, regardless of what country creates it I don't want it for a couple of years. I'd rather take my chances with another round of CV than have something unknown

As a proportion of working age, economically active adults those in need of childcare is actually a relatively small number. Getting those workers back isn’t that big a part of the economy especially considering the % of unemployment that will be necessary in the short term.

And the ensuing poverty isn't actually an economic argument either as the women who are shoved out of jobs and end up on benefits may simply be replaced by other women who would have been on benefits but have the advantage of a stay at home partner or a local grandparent to do the childcare. It's simply swapping women with childcare for women without. The net impact on the economy will be broadly the same in terms of financial cost.

And has been explained by PP, MN is by definition the place where that minority of parents will be venting and worried sick, but that 8% figure for the number of workers who would be unable to work if primary schools are closed seems about right. Not hard to replace them with people from the incredibly long dole queues

The net impact on the economy will be broadly the same in terms of financial cost.

You’re forgetting the impact of rising child poverty and homelessness which will cost the economy significantly in the medium term.

Yep. And sadly I can well imagine tories thinking if a proportion of workers have to be economically inactive during a recession it might as well be women with young children to look after who are expensive anyway due to parental and/or maternity leave.

Again this is not my thoughts and obviously there are broader concerns than economics. Not sure right wing economists care much about those concerns though.

As for education they have been decimating despite clear evidence of the impact for a decade. Any of course education is terribly important bluster in the face of that reality isn’t very credible.

Just saying be prepared. They’ll likely still want single mums to be working because they don’t want to encourage that kind of nonsense (their emphasis not mine, I am a single parent) but mothers in two income households in the childbearing years not so much. Especially when you consider shortage of childcare and unwillingness to invest in it and costs of subsidising it.

Yes Laurie but that will be the same regardless of which person is in the job.

We are going to have huge number of unemployed, yes?

Many of those will be parents of primary aged children who have childcare options. They can take the jobs of the people who have to leave work because schools are shut and they have no childcare.

It's just Family A are now experiencing poverty instead of Family B.

What I am saying is there is no economic reason to keep schools open, other than the long term impact of the loss of education. But short to medium term - we are heading into huge recession and massive unemployment figures anyway.

Not sure right wing economists care much about those concerns though.

Failing to educate can be seen as a political failure when other European countries, left and right manage it.

Atm it is important to highlight as priority. We’ll see but at least it is being highlighted.

But laurie Boris lied in parliament says there is no rising child poverty.

I know many teachers might appreciate the figures but if KW provision is removed it gets more even in terms of what we are trying to maintain. Working women in and out if schools would be affected most.

That all sounds frighteningly plausible.

Many of those will be parents of primary aged children who have childcare options. They can take the jobs of the people who have to leave work because schools are shut and they have no childcare.

And what about single parents?

I don’t agree with your assessment, at a professional level, people aren’t that easily replaced. There are many parents with specialist skill sets that can’t be easily replaced and whose inability to work will be significantly missed.

Then there are nurses, teachers with many years experience, not easy to replace either.

Entry level sure.

There are 10 million under 10s in the uk
I doubt it
there are half a million kids per cohort year in schools
so that makes 5 million under 10's

The thing to remember is that
Pensioners vote, often Tory
Children do not vote

Johnson does not know how many children he has
shows how much he cares about schools

But if you want teachers or nurses (not jobs with a queue of qualified unemployed waiting to take up) then there has to be kw provision.

Then there’s carers. Carers in particular earn so little and many will already be on in work benefits they can’t pay for childcare alternatives.

Anyway that’s a different topic and I’m aware some are very resentful of kw and vulnerable children having access to school care where essential.

And what about single parents?

Exactly Laurie They don't give a shiny shit!!!

I agree with you that in Health there may be some parents who will quit that will be harder to replace. But if the schools are shut, teaching profession becomes a moot point. Overall, the picture is grim.

Anyway, I have thoroughly depressed myself here so am off for a SD pub lunch

But if you want teachers or nurses (not jobs with a queue of qualified unemployed waiting to take up) then there has to be kw provision.

If anything’s going to prompt rioting in the streets it will be the continuing of a two tiered system which ensures that some parents are facilitated to provide for their children and have them receive full time education and others aren’t.

Lucky you lockdown. None of the pubs in my village have opened yet.

No it’s not about being resentful it’s about lack of understanding.

Over and over you see the quip school is not childcare, your responsibility blah blah

Except it clearly is for some. If that was removed then the same pressures would emerge and there would be more understanding.

If people thought before they typed there wouldn’t be as much division.

I do care that teachers can work, I want schools back full time. And I want it to be safer with PPE. But comments from teachers as above are very irritating. If they stopped we’d get closer to wanting a common goal
And I don’t even need cc and they are bad form.