Chris Witty "We're at the limits of the contact we can allow"

[confusedandold]

I've been watching the Press conference and I always find Chris Witty the voice of reason. He is saying that we are at the limit of what we can open without the virus spreading further and we may even have to take a step back. So where does this leave the opening of schools in a few weeks time?

@MarshaBradyo

Agreed. Which is why SAGE needed people to feel "personally threatened" to get compliance. I understand why but the reality is that feeling won't hold for most people. The need for human interaction is incredibly strong and will, in my view, eventually override pretty much everything else.

He's not the only one who thinks this. London school of hygiene said back in June they could only find details of 2 children under 15 in the UK who had CV, but there was at least 15 deaths in the UK alone.

MW contradicted himself as he mentioned one case in Australia, whilst going on about no children infected. At the time he mentioned it, globally kids were getting infected and schools closed.

But tbh when it comes to most of the info released from the UK I think yea bollocks and go searching. I've had more reliable news from local papers in small countries abroad. THere was a small village paper in Italy iirc that mentioned the nursing home scandal about 2 weeks before it started getting talking about nationally in the UK. I posted on twitter and got told it was all fake news, government wouldn't do something like that. Got banned from twitter for spreading fake news, When I posted it I said I hope this is fake and if not hopefully those in charge. at government level who made this order is prosecuted.

He’s not the only one no. It is still unclear as opposing reports.

American Academy of Pediatrics
COVID-19 Transmission and Children: The Child Is Not to Blame
Benjamin Lee and William V. Raszka
Pediatrics August 2020, 146 (2) e2020004879; DOI: doi.org/10.1542/peds.2020-004879

On the basis of these data, SARS-CoV-2 transmission in schools may be less important in community transmission than initially feared.

The child developed symptoms after or concurrent with adult HHCs, suggesting that the child was not the source of infection and that children most frequently acquire COVID-19 from adults, rather than transmitting it to them.

pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/146/2/e2020004879.long

Scientists will keep contradicting each other and themselves as they find out new things. Some of them have clear biases and agendas, others not to much. I tend to go with the thing that is most up to date. Some organisations still ask their followers to spread research around SM without informing their followers of the age or validity of the research , or whether there is any counter evidence.

I am suspicious about the lack of reporting of British school outbreaks (no matter how small) in our MSM. This is very different form March when the mood was for shutdown and the press were manically reporting even faint suspicions of the virus within a 5 mile radius of a school.

I can't get those links to work marsha.

The summer camp blows all of that out of the water though. You have a situation where the children were staying away from their families, contracted the virus, and then brought it home. Whereas in most cases it's pretty tricky to figure out who infected who, in this case, it's absolutely obvious where the cluster originated, and in which direction in travelled.

Ah probably because I c&p from another post, it is recent

Here it is

OK, found it now : that is one of those meta studies which uses dated research , including the now totally ignored as useful NSW study.

American schools have been shut for a long time but they are certainly having a lot of large outbreaks in summer camps.

It's a loaded title , isn't it, which shows its intent? No one ever said children were 'to blame'.

The trouble with using studies from paediatricians ( we have a very messianic British one whose name I have forgotten)is they are not virologists or epidemiolgists.

I’ve been shocked by the venom with which some of these scientists reporting on kids/Covid have been subjected. One German virologist Christian Drosten apparently had to quit reporting publicly as both he and his family were subject to death threats. There is so much anger over this Pandemic, a lot of it is being channeled into the issues of schools.

I am suspicious about the lack of reporting of British school outbreaks (no matter how small) in our MSM.

At the Daily Briefings there were questions about why there were outbreaks in factories but nothing about school outbreaks.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-53191763

There's been nothing announced by PHE about the chain of infection in this case which surely debunks the "kids don't transmit" mantra that many believe.

Schools are problematic though, it’s not hard to see why. Obviously no one should be targeted but people do not want to see their children decline. Especially when one half of the school gets all the resource. That has to end, tg

Scottish schools are due to open shortly as, I think, term begins earlier. Scotland has (apart from the same ghastly care home mistake) generally made a better job of this than England.
Watching with trepidation to see how that goes.

I suspect most of Scotland will be OK. Not so sure about Glasgow. Hopefully all will be well . I just hope it doesn't make schools some awful political football but that horse may have bolted.

Marsha , what do you mean by half?

@Piggywaspushed

Would that be the scientist who evacuated his family to a remote Scottish island to avoid the pandemic?

.... Yes that's him The risk is v v small .... except when it comes to him and his family

However the 10,000 x risk for age 75+ vs kids is about right
..... but maybe he didn't fancy the risk faced by a middle-aged man

No question: nearly all kids would be better off in school after the hols;
the issue is the risk to staff, parents & familes of both and consequent increase in community infection

Death rate when infected doubles for about every 5 years of age
It is 10 x higher for every 20 years
So 100 x higher for 40 years and 1,000 x for 60 years

Relevant for schools:
A 43-year old teacher has about 10 x the risk of a 23-year-old one
A 63-year-old has 100 x the risk

Schools would be pretty safe to go in as normal, if all staff under about 50 stayed home,
under 45 for men.

Didn't the Scientists boycott the press releases last month, or maybe June? Something to do with them being silenced into talking about certain issues?

THis is an interesting read about global outbreaks involving children.

www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/school-openings-across-globe-suggest-ways-keep-coronavirus-bay-despite-outbreaks

The UK government set something up called Skids back in June asking for voluntary help for gathering data from schools. So far those figures haven't been released, or at least I cannot find them

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/904207/sKIDS_protocol_v1.4.pdf

Piggy half - the years back in. Years 3, 4, 5 not in, but their teachers used elsewhere. If you cut from 30 to 15 you get half. Last term that is. It won’t be the same this term.

"Masks couldn't be worn back in March due to a global shortage at the time"

Also, at that time, scientists had little data on how the virus spreads and were relying on what worked for flu

• but COVID transmission is different & unusual in at least 2 crucial ways

• People can be infectious for several days before symptoms appear

• COVID spread is via clusters, with about 10% of infected people responsible for 80-90% of infection spread
  i.e. superspreaders are an important feature

Face coverings / masks are a more effective measure to tackle COVID than they would be for many other air-borne viruses

@MarshaBradyo I found that study really muddled. The Swiss & China examples are based on periods of time when schools in both countries were closed so obviously the children could only get infected by HHC.
The French & Australia cases were more interesting though, would love to know the reasons underlying those results. Any thoughts?

Info about work and school place closures and more

ourworldindata.org/policy-responses-covid

Mac Yes this part is interesting

‘In an intriguing study from France, a 9-year-old boy with respiratory symptoms associated with picornavirus, influenza A, and SARS-CoV-2 coinfection was found to have exposed over 80 classmates at 3 schools; no secondary contacts became infected, despite numerous influenza infections within the schools, suggesting an environment conducive to respiratory virus transmission.9 In New South Wales, Australia, 9 students and 9 staff infected with SARS-CoV-2 across 15 schools had close contact with a total of 735 students and 128 staff.10 Only 2 secondary infections were identified, none in adult staff; 1 student in primary school was potentially infected by a staff member, and 1 student in high school was potentially infected via exposure to 2 infected schoolmates.’

I suppose they would suggest the reason is this:

These data all suggest that children are not significant drivers of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is unclear why documented SARS-CoV-2 transmission from children to other children or adults is so infrequent. In 47 COVID-19–infected German children, nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 viral loads were similar to those in other age groups, raising concern that children could be as infectious as adults.15 Because SARS-CoV-2 infected children are so frequently mildly symptomatic, they may have weaker and less frequent cough, releasing fewer infectious particles into the surrounding environment.

The closed school is if no use to me so I did think oh come on at this:
Another possibility is that because school closures occurred in most locations along with or before widespread physical distancing orders, most close contacts became limited to households, reducing opportunities for children to become infected in the community and present as index cases.

So I agree half the report is of little use, and the title is silly. But I found it interesting nonetheless.

As much I would love for it to be true I’m on the fence, it’s inconclusive.

Scottish schools going back are to be watched, and given BigChoc’s post masks to be considered.

I think school would also be safer if students could be taught in much smaller classes. But money...

Let's face it, telling all men over 45 not to come back cuts out nearly all head teachers! It simply isn't realistic, but you know that, of course!

people do not want to see their children decline. Especially when one half of the school gets all the resource

I had to have words with one of the year 4 teachers. DS9 had a valiant go at a maths worksheet and got criticised for leaving out 1c 4a and 4b (they wanted to know why). Umm because he has no teacher teaching the topic, no one in real life to explain it to him, 2 ft working parents that cannot teach at the same time as a directors meeting on teams, 2 ft working parents that don’t know the ins and outs of something like spag anyway, shall I go on? Or can we just accept that 1c 4a and 4b just ain’t happening.

@MarshaBradyo thank you. I want schools open & think masks will be part of the solution. I see schools are closing in Australia with children & teachers having been infected. It just feels like we’re on a horrible knife edge now.

Is it August the 18th that new school guidance comes out? Though I’m told they’ve helpfully been back editing the old guidance without highlighting where or what. Are they just trying to make it as hard as possible for schools to keep up?