Chris Witty "We're at the limits of the contact we can allow"

[confusedandold]

I've been watching the Press conference and I always find Chris Witty the voice of reason. He is saying that we are at the limit of what we can open without the virus spreading further and we may even have to take a step back. So where does this leave the opening of schools in a few weeks time?

I would teach one group physically, and another remotely

And how’s that supposed to work for the children whose parents need to be physically in their place of employment at that time or plugged into laptop for 8 hours a day?

Chris Whitty lacks ambition.

We're at the limits of what we can do because we still have constant, widespread, community transmission - albeit at much lower levels than it was. Pretty much everywhere in England has at least a few new cases every week. Obviously the numbers are much higher in many places.

New outbreaks can pop up anywhere because the virus is still everywhere. If we don't know where the virus is we have to keep everyone away from everyone else.

Many countries now are going for elimination rather than low level containment. Lots of people are sneery about this strategy - 'They're finding new imported cases/they can't keep their borders closed forever.' This is a horrible argument when you think about it - 'You can't stop me from coming into your space and harming you' played out on an international scale.

We can carry on as we are, living in a reservoir of virus. We can decide that everything is fine as long as the reservoir doesn't slosh up past our ankles. The downside is a continuous cycle of lockdown and release, whole cities and regions switched on and off with little notice and little regard for the people who live there, continuous masks, not knowing from one day to the next whether your business can open or whether you can see your mum ... and we'll have to do this indefinitely because this is not a strategy it's a holding pattern.

This is the government gambling everything on there being a vaccine before they run out of money.

Or we could decide to go for elimination and we could learn from other countries that have taken that route. We could aim to reduce new cases to the level where we could identify every single one, work out how it happened and prevent future transmission.

Businesses could reopen confidently and we could all hug our mums confidently if we knew the virus was just not around, and that any outbreaks that did occur would be quickly contained.

news.sky.com/story/sage-members-worried-serious-disorder-could-overwhelm-attempts-to-control-coronavirus-12040171
SAGE members worried serious disorder could 'overwhelm' attempts to control coronavirus
Britain will face "grave challenges" in keeping public order, scientists advising the government have warned

A paper written by a Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) sub-committee, and considered by SAGE itself on 2 July, said the current "volatile and highly complex situation" means Britain will face "grave challenges" in keeping public order during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Any disorder could be "comparable or bigger in scale" than the 2011 London riots, the scientists warned.

And

The scientists warned there needed to be "sufficient headroom" in the rate of infections for schools to reopen safely - adding there "may be a need to change measures at the end of the summer in order to be able to keep R below 1" while sending pupils back

And

At one meeting, the scientists discussed modelling which showed contact tracing people with the virus and "COVID-secure measures" alone are "unlikely to be sufficiently effective to allow a return to 'pre-COVID' normality without increasing infection rates" if there is no vaccine

@LaurieMarlow

I would teach one group physically, and another remotely

And how’s that supposed to work for the children whose parents need to be physically in their place of employment at that time or plugged into laptop for 8 hours a day?

It would work a whole lot better than the chaotic and random school closures that are going to result from opening schools under current guidelines.....

There isn't a 'back to normal' option. There is orderly part time, keeping more people well, or disorderly part time, with lots of people being ill.

I know which I would prefer.

@RedToothBrush

If there's no vaccine ever, what do we do? I guess either life changes for ever or we just get on with it until it burns itself out and accept that people will die and the economy is in trouble!

[quote tocancel]@RedToothBrush

If there's no vaccine ever, what do we do? I guess either life changes for ever or we just get on with it until it burns itself out and accept that people will die and the economy is in trouble!

[/quote]
Each week so much more is discovered. I personally think rapid saliva testing or similar will be a key way out. With rapid testing a lot of places work/school could open safely.

@LangClegsInSpace, great points but is CW in charge?

1. ways to treat the virus are improving
2. we are learning to identify markers for people most at risk of serious covid-19
3. even if we dont have a vaccine which offers long term immunity, its unlikely we wont have one that at least offers some level of short term immunity.

So I'm not concerned that a vaccine isnt possible.

I do think its going to take longer, to be at a stage where Joe Bloggs has a needle in his arm injecting the vaccine, than most of the rhetoric in the newspapers though.

I think we are looking at March realistically.

It would work a whole lot better than the chaotic and random school closures that are going to result from opening schools under current guidelines

Announce half time school now and that’s signing the redundancy papers for hoards of parents. It’s key workers having to give up their jobs when they’re needed most.

How would teachers with children manage as a starting point?

We don’t know exactly how it will pan out, but plenty of areas are in good positions and may get through relatively unscathed. For employers, reacting to emergencies would be much more palatable than ‘half time for the foreseeable’.

@cantkeepawayforever.lecturing 8 year olds whilst far from ideal could be OK for an hour or so?

@RedToothBrush

1) ways to treat the virus are improving 2) we are learning to identify markers for people most at risk of serious covid-19 3) even if we dont have a vaccine which offers long term immunity, its unlikely we wont have one that at least offers some level of short term immunity.

So I'm not concerned that a vaccine isnt possible.

I do think its going to take longer, to be at a stage where Joe Bloggs has a needle in his arm injecting the vaccine, than most of the rhetoric in the newspapers though.

I think we are looking at March realistically.

I think this too. Even if vaccine immunity is quite short term hopefully it will be enough to disrupt chains of transmission and get us more back to normal

Piggy
But the actual Hall of residence was closed down as was mine when Hep B struck.
No. THat one building in the hall was closed.
the other 850 of us in the hall carried on as normal

FWIW the chap who started the outbreak is very easy to find as he works for the UN on TB

@RedToothBrush if we were living normal lives in March next year, I would be pleased! Fingers crossed.

Thanks Patricia my own day has an EHCP too. He has autism and hereditary spastic paraplegia. I've just had his finalised post 16 amended EHCP. Colleges can and his will do blended learning. He can book to go to student support for face to face. Can book sessions.
But it's stupid for a child who's EHCP states adult support for organisation and specific teaching of routines.
I've asked how they are going to contact him and make sure speakers are booked and can't they just do a regular timetable.
All the personal support has gone out the window. It's back to trying to fit these pupils into what they are doing.
I'm worried after he went to an amazing secondary who did whatever he needed regardless of what EHCP said!

@iamusuallybeingunreasonable
But it's fine to put other groups at the bottom of the pile?
It is simply not possible in the long run to expect an entire generation of young adults to be stuck in their studio flat or bedsit for months on end either with no income (as their jobs will be gone if pubs and non essential retail have to close again and this time they'll be no furlough scheme) or attempting to work from such an environment with no space for a desk or even table and dining room chair to work at.

Most Senior School kids won’t need a parent at home will they? There’s a difference between Primary and Senior.

Fairly sure its impossible to eradicate a virus when we have no vaccine. Or even effective treatment.

If being extremely hopeful to do something not before done though, obviously the best way!

[quote randomer]@cantkeepawayforever.lecturing 8 year olds whilst far from ideal could be OK for an hour or so?[/quote]
That's a shame, seeing as I am in front of them from 8.45 - 3.15 every day.....

It's the fact that every day, every lesson, would have to be a lecture - no moving round to support the child who is stuck, or to see how theyare getting on.

@Oaktree55

Most Senior School kids won’t need a parent at home will they? There’s a difference between Primary and Senior.

Some secondary school kids are only 11 though. I’d leave my 11 year old for a couple of hours but til 6pm or later 5 days a week is hardly ideal

@cantkeepawayforever, sounds terrible.

@DownstairsMixUp
If the choice was simply between opening schools and keeping them closed with this having no effect on the transmission rate or the need for other restrictions of course schools should be open. As soon as people begin to propose options that require other types of business to close in order for schools to reopen you are left with a situation in which you have to choose who to make unemployed. In such a situation it is likely that the numbers of people being made unemployed through their employers not being able to trade profitably due to the restriction imposed in order for schools to reopen is likely to be considerably greater than the number of parents who couldn't work if school provision is limited to key workers and therefore in such a situation, combined with the fact whatever happens some will be made redundant who can fill the roles of those who wouldn't be able to work if schools are closed, the least bad option in economic terms is keeping schools closed.

I’ve been searching for data but struggling. What I have found is that as of 2017 71.3% of adults were living in households without children. Of the 28.7% living with children a sizeable amount of those will be teenagers or adult children as adult children living with parents is increasingly common.

Although, of course, it won’t feel like it on mn the number of adults with primary age children is very much a minority. Of those some will have sahp, be in private education, some parents will be unemployed.

As a proportion of working age, economically active adults those in need of childcare is actually a relatively small number. Getting those workers back isn’t that big a part of the economy especially considering the % of unemployment that will be necessary in the short term.

Not saying this is the way it should be looked at but from the perspective of an economist that group isn’t going to be massively significant.

Sorry but I think we’re being naive when we assume of course they’ll open schools or we can’t go back to work and the economy needs us. We’re pretty small fry in the numbers game.