Scary Peer Reviewed Science - Trigger Warning

[ClimbDad]

Taking Mumsnet HQ’s suggestion on board, this thread is for those who want scientific information about COVID-19. It is clearly advertised as scary, and has a trigger warning, so no complaints from anyone complaining they didn’t know what they were stumbling into.

I’ll only be sharing peer reviewed papers from respected journals and would advise anyone else who wants to share anything to use the same criteria.

The thread isn’t actually designed to scare. It’s designed to inform, so that people can make a decent assessment of risk and lobby decision makers when appropriate. Don’t assume government knows more than you. They’ve been behind the curve on everything.

I’ll start. The Guardian wrote a good article about the progress of respiratory viruses through autumn and how we don’t know whether SARS-COV-2 will compete with flu.

www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jul/19/what-happens-when-flu-meets-covid-19

The theory of viral competition suggests COVID19 might be kept at bay by flu. In other words infection by other respiratory viruses might help reduce the impact of a second wave.

However this peer reviewed study published in the Journal of Medical Virology suggests flu and COVID19 don’t compete, and coexist simultaneously.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jmv.26364

The inference is that having SARS-COV-2 circulating at the same time as influenza will cause more serious infection. It doesn’t seem that viral competition will make things better.

Practically what does this mean? I believe it means it is prudent to be even more cautious during flu season than we were in spring, and to do everything possible to reduce transmission. That is going to be particularly relevant to schools. Even if one refuses to accept schools play a role in COVID19 transmission, it is established science that schools are the engines behind influenza transmission every year, so precautionary measures make sense even if just to reduce spread of flu.

No , I know, hence the speech marks jrob.

I don't think OP scares the shot out of teacher, tbh. He seem supportive of teachers and TAs (don't forget them the ones who are still set to work face to face and up close with children!) We are scared enough for many other reasons and read and discuss all this research ourselves, often before the OP has.

If anyone scares the shit out of teachers it is the DfE!

@Piggywaspushed

No , I know, hence the speech marks jrob.

I don't think OP scares the shot out of teacher, tbh. He seem supportive of teachers and TAs (don't forget them the ones who are still set to work face to face and up close with children!) We are scared enough for many other reasons and read and discuss all this research ourselves, often before the OP has.

I am a teacher who will be face to face with children so I understand the worry. I could understand if he shared the study in a rational way e.g. "This study says there might be a possibility of infection via airbourne transmission in some situations" with some discussion around it. A blanket statement of "It is airbourne" is not helpful

But golden even in the 16th and 17th century when there were plague outbreaks theatres and public paces shut down and people were locked away if infectious. That isn't new. I am not saying you said it was but there are people on here who say that lockdown has never happened before and often cite the plague as an example.

We, in the west, have protection against TB and malaria and a good understanding now of protection against HIV. We are probably just lucky SARs and Ebola never made it to us. Arguably, if Ebola had, developed world scientists would be working harder to tackle it. This is the first developed world pandemic for a long long time.

But golden even in the 16th and 17th century when there were plague outbreaks theatres and public paces shut down and people were locked away if infectious. That isn't new.

Yes absolutely, that’s not new. What I take issue with is people proclaiming that crowds and theatres and socialising are gone forever.

I do really really hope that is not true definitely!

And it IS exceptionally scary and weird to those of us who’ve not lived through anything like this before, absolutely. I’m not saying it’s not scary or that we should be casual about it!

I AM saying that it is unhelpful (and counterproductive) to claim, as ClimbDad has, that Covid means these changes will happen permanently; that we will never go back to anything like ‘normal’; and that governments all know this but can’t admit it because people aren’t ready to face it. When you come out with scaremongering bollocks like that, and back yourself up by saying “ask any immunologist, they’ll tell you they would have preferred pandemic flu to this!” (?!?! wtf no), it means people who can see through you on that thread are less likely to take you seriously on other ones.

(Which is a bit of a shame because honestly, I think it probably is wise to act as if there’s some degree of airborne transmission of Covid. But I can’t blame people for not taking this particular poster seriously.)

@Piggywaspushed

If anyone scares the shit out of teachers it is the DfE!

So true 😂

Hi all. We've removed some personal attacks from this thread.
Please address the point and not the person - and as always, please do report anything that you think breaks the talk guidelines.
Peace and love,
MNHQ

Anothet drawback is that this is a study on adults ill enough to be in a hospital setting. Are these findings replicated in asymptomatic children?
I dont want to be accused of having a pop at the OP, but his post was not rational.

All of what you say Golden!

The trouble is I think we will only know about spread in children when society does open back up and they return to schools en masse. It's something that can't be properly tested until they do. Which is to many people a bit alarming .

US unions are calling for strike action so it's not just a UK problem. But it seems to be true (I say seems because I have read very little 'unspun' reporting from other countries' teachers) that teachers in other countries feel more protected and safer (and, by extension, the children.)

I AM saying that it is unhelpful (and counterproductive) to claim, as ClimbDad has, that Covid means these changes will happen permanently; that we will never go back to anything like ‘normal’; and that governments all know this but can’t admit it because people aren’t ready to face it.

Where?

The theory of viral competition suggests COVID19 might be kept at bay by flu. In other words infection by other respiratory viruses might help reduce the impact of a second wave.However this peer reviewed study published in the Journal of Medical Virology suggests flu and COVID19 don’t compete, and coexist simultaneously.
Practically what does this mean? I believe it means it is prudent to be even more cautious during flu season than we were in spring, and to do everything possible to reduce transmission. That is going to be particularly relevant to schools. Even if one refuses to accept schools play a role in COVID19 transmission, it is established science that schools are the engines behind influenza transmission every year, so precautionary measures make sense even if just to reduce spread of flu.

I dont know but
All the list of outbreaks the gov have are
Educational
Prisons
Hospitals
Other
Care homes

All inside obviously several of them lots of different changing people in.
Lots of CH outbreaks last week even with the masks. (Although could thry now be having visitors?)
The schools were despite generally having up to 15 a class. And all thehand washing.

In fact doesmt it seem the evidence was mostly for indoor air rather than surfaces? Because most people were not washing shopping. People would have been touching things at the beaches and that was mostly ok.
Spain was doing ok until was it a nightclub outbreak? So probably no masks.
Now i guess small enclosed spaces make you more likely to touch something someone else has done in the up to say 5d since they touched or coughed on it.
Mostly it seems when people are there at tte same time. But can go quite far from singing or air con etc.
I wonder that with breathing someones air for 6h the amount you inhale would be enough to make you ill even with the proper filtering masks (although i note icu staff didnt all have antibodies).

Where?

In previous thread as I said above. Can give you a link if you want but it’s not really the subject here; I brought it up as an example of why people may be disinclined to take ClimbDad seriously.

@Keepdistance

I dont know but All the list of outbreaks the gov have are Educational Prisons Hospitals Other Care homes

All inside obviously several of them lots of different changing people in.
Lots of CH outbreaks last week even with the masks. (Although could thry now be having visitors?)
The schools were despite generally having up to 15 a class. And all thehand washing.

In fact doesmt it seem the evidence was mostly for indoor air rather than surfaces? Because most people were not washing shopping. People would have been touching things at the beaches and that was mostly ok.
Spain was doing ok until was it a nightclub outbreak? So probably no masks.
Now i guess small enclosed spaces make you more likely to touch something someone else has done in the up to say 5d since they touched or coughed on it.
Mostly it seems when people are there at tte same time. But can go quite far from singing or air con etc.
I wonder that with breathing someones air for 6h the amount you inhale would be enough to make you ill even with the proper filtering masks (although i note icu staff didnt all have antibodies).

Yeah, it shows we need extra caution just incase. At my partners work (huge factory 7000 people) they turned the air con off as a precaution. They also wear n95 masks and have their own booths for lunch. They had 2 outbreaks in 2 weeks but it was limited to the people working within a close distance and the people they car shared with

"I don't live in the UK so I don't quite understand how the UK government is handling covid, but we have an eminence as Health Secretary and another eminence in charge of control of the pandemic who also gives very clear and easy to follow conferences every night, and there has been no mention of a risk of airborne transmission yet.*

An eminence?? And you believe the eminences, who struggle now to find scientists willing to stand beside them at these briefings? I rest my case.

So is COVID airborne or not?

There are plenty of other copy and pasters on MN!

It's called evidence?

I would love to know what country has 'eminences'!

Hi all. We've removed some personal attacks from this thread.
Please address the point and not the person MNHQ

I really wonder what ClimbDad’s agenda is - it seems like it’s simply coming here to “educate” a forum of women and have them taking his copying and pasting/speculation as gospel

@GoldenOmber

And it IS exceptionally scary and weird to those of us who’ve not lived through anything like this before, absolutely. I’m not saying it’s not scary or that we should be casual about it!

I AM saying that it is unhelpful (and counterproductive) to claim, as ClimbDad has, that Covid means these changes will happen permanently; that we will never go back to anything like ‘normal’; and that governments all know this but can’t admit it because people aren’t ready to face it. When you come out with scaremongering bollocks like that, and back yourself up by saying “ask any immunologist, they’ll tell you they would have preferred pandemic flu to this!” (?!?! wtf no), it means people who can see through you on that thread are less likely to take you seriously on other ones.

(Which is a bit of a shame because honestly, I think it probably is wise to act as if there’s some degree of airborne transmission of Covid. But I can’t blame people for not taking this particular poster seriously.)

These are the posts I believe you are referencing from ClimbDad about returning to normal. What is completely missing from his posts, and present in your quote, is him saying that we can never go back to normal.

If these highly respected scientists are right, how will your life change? Do you believe we can go back to normal while the virus is circulating?

The people calling for everyone to get back to normal because this is just a bad flu haven’t quite registered what this is yet. Don’t mean to be patronising or negative, but there’s a reason every country in the world has taken this so seriously. It’s not like anything we’ve encountered before. Ask any immunologist and they will tell you they would have much preferred pandemic flu.

It’s gone about how I expected. This is why the government can’t be honest and why it has to pretend we can go back to normal. Most people can’t or won’t accept the changes that are going to happen.

We can either alter our behaviour to minimise transmission (note the use of the word minimise not eliminate) or we can go back to normal and accept levels of sickness and death we haven't seen in western societies for more than 100 years. It's clear some people on here want to gamble by going back to normal, but I'd suggest caution.