AIBU? To think that a second wave isn't inevitable just yet?

[Littlemeadow123]

I know that the government/medical experts have been that a 2nd wave will arrive during late autumn/winter. Maybe it will.

But...now they are saying that a second wave will probably happen in the UK in a few weeks, because of holiday makers bringing it back from mainland Europe. Am I being unreasonable to think that if that is such a likely consequence then the government should grow a pair and ground the bloody airlines and stop people going? Like loads of other countries had the bollocks to do at the very beginning.

I know doing this could just be putting off the inevitable, but at least that way, we will only have another wave at the back end of this year (if it comes) instead of having an extra one in August as well.

Well it’s not just coming for Europe is it? It’s local peaks and outbreaks in the UK

Probably better to have a second wave now than in flu season 🤷‍♀️

@ghostyslovesheets

The 2nd wave they are predicting in August will be caused by people coming back from countries in Europe. And this won't be instead of a wave in flu season. It will be as well as a third wave in flu season

And this coming 2nd wave will affect the whole country, not just the localised spikes we've been getting in places such as Leicester.

Yes the opening up on everything and holidays will lead to additional waves on top of what will be a long winter.
And into that we're being mandated to throw our children back into classes of 30 plus in bubbles of 100s!

We’re still not out of the first wave yet. There were 119 Covid deaths reported by on the gov.uk website yesterday. Just because we’re not getting a press conference any more, it doesn’t mean it has gone away.

I'm all for loosening restrictions like visiting family but I do think allowing people to travel abroad with no quarantine period was a mistake and I dont understand it at all from a purely health point of view.

However the travel and tourism industry is huge so presumably it was an attempt by the government to save thousands of jobs in the sector.

Nonetheless a second wave of any kind is not inevitable. We have to prepare for it as a possibility but being prepared doesnt mean it will definitely happen.

Yesterday In Spain 2 deaths were reported. The UK had 119. Let's not start blaming Europe.

The WHO said it is just going to, potentially, be one long wave.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/29/one-big-wave-why-the-covid-19-second-wave-may-not-exist-coronavirus

@Kitkatastrophe

That's what I mean. The government is acting like any other waves are inevitable, presumably so they don't have to make decisions that some people are going to be unhappy with, such as holidays abroad etc etc.

@Feelingconfused2020

The situation in Spain must be giving the government cause for concern because they have said that anyone returning must isolate for 14 days or risk a £1000 fine. It has said on the news today that people going to places like France should prepare themselves for a similar situation.

I think, as TheFaeryQueen said, CV19 is going to be a very long wave and the government are just trying to manage it for the NHS and buy time to discover new treatments and a possible vaccine while keeping the economy moving.

Even people crossing and travelling about the UK for holidays carries infection from one area to another so don’t think foreign holidays are the only issue !

It is definitely one long wave. I work in an NHS hospital in an area where Covid is still very much going strong.

Why people think it’s gone away is beyond me.

Having said that though, Covid is likely to be around for a long time to come yet. I’m not sure we can just go back into lockdown & stay like that for the duration. Economically or practically. Think of the mental health impacts if nothing else.

I'm another one who doesn't see it as inevitable but does feel it's more likely to be one long wave if anything.

I'll also be first in line for a flu vaccine once this year's one is released.

I did see an article saying 30million free flu vaccinations will be offered this year. Hopefully there's a good uptake of them, that will probably help ease pressure on hospitals as much as anything else.

@Coffeerunner

I don't believe it's gone. Believe me when I say I'm just using government lingo. They are saying 2nd wave.

O.k., so one long wave. But surely if we get loads of people going abroad, catching it and passing it on, our situation is going to get worse. And another lockdown lasting 8+ weeks is going to devastate everyone, not just airlines.

Holidays have started far to early, so has opening pubs and other social activities. The priority should have been getting children back into school on a part time basis to ensure our children are being educated. With the threat of a second wave I fear our children now won't be back in school in September at which time the majority of kids won't have set foot in a school for 6 months.

@Littlemeadow123 yes, you’re right but those people don’t need to be going abroad to catch it. They can be travelling within the U.K. or even within their own town. It is very hard to come up with a real solution that will both stop the rise in Covid cases & yet not cause economic disaster for so many people.

I am surprised foreign holidays have resumed this summer, I really am. But they are only a small part of the problem.

@Star81

Yeah we have enough problems with the virus being spread by people holidaying in the uk, without people bringing more helpings of it in from abroad.

Every time the number of cases in uk seems to be going down, it's going to rise again as soon as the next wave of holiday makers fly back. All we'll do is go around in circles.

Covid is still here. And in other countries. Many many (most) other countries have lower rates than the UK. So I think a complete travel ban including places that have a lower rate than the uk is ridiculous, people will be more likely to get it staying here and going to restaurants. Reviewing each country continuously and reacting to the data is surely the most sensible thing

@OoohTheStatsDontLie

I totally agree. It’s a virus it’s never going to completely go away.

We need to learn to live with it, and if this means constantly changing and reviewing things as circumstances progress then so be it.

Asking people to not move about and live life is not sustainable.

There’s no point comparing our death figures at present - the govt have already stated there’s an issue that is under review, in that people who have tested positive for corona virus at any point are being recorded as a corona virus death even if they got it in March and since recovered. While that doesn’t make any noticeable dent in our overall figures, as the numbers fall lower and we get further in to this then it does make a difference to our daily count. You will see that yesterday only 12 deaths in hospitals were recorded - the PHE figure for all locations is becoming distorted.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53443724

In addition, Spain is also quite likely not reporting accurately.

newseu.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-26/UK-s-Spain-quarantine-France-s-free-tests-COVID-19-daily-bulletin-Srt8a19t7i/index.html

Stopping travel abroad and limiting how far people could travel here like Wales did should have been implemented. It can’t spread as easily from area to area if people don’t travel.

Don't think there will be a second wave just one long wave with peaks and troughs and I think Europe are starting to realise that. I do think allowing free movement of people between countries unwise. In Ireland the advice is still no non essential foreign travel and if you do travel you have to quarantine on return. It also means if you do travel you are not insured because the government have advised against it. They have a list of 20 countries that they deem ok and you don't need to quarantine on return but they are still advising against travelling to them. Green list (Malta, Finland, Norway, Italy, Hungary, Estonia, Latvia
Lithuania, Cyprus, Slovakia, Greece, Greenland, Monaco, San Marino
Gibraltar). All very confusing and they are still allowing tourists in they are meant to quarantine but there doesn't seem to be much enforcement of that.

And into that we're being mandated to throw our children back into classes of 30 plus in bubbles of 100s!

Exactly! I know it's a priority to get kids back in school asap but I think we're not so far away from getting a vaccine and if online platforms are working well and work is actually marked by teachers, then why can't we continue this way until it's safe to to back to normal?

Exactly! I know it's a priority to get kids back in school asap but I think we're not so far away from getting a vaccine and if online platforms are working well and work is actually marked by teachers, then why can't we continue this way until it's safe to to back to normal?

Because not all schools are using those online platforms, because some kids are too young to engage with them, and because lots of parents have to work and are exhausted by months of juggling childcare, home schooling and working from home?

@Feelingconfused2020

Yesterday In Spain 2 deaths were reported. The UK had 119. Let's not start blaming Europe.

Deaths happen a few weeks after infections. The rate of infections is currently higher in Spain (and France) than in the UK. So in a few weeks time, the deaths will be higher in Spain and France than in the UK.

It's infection rates that drive restrictions/relaxations, not death rates.