Page 3 | Second wave of Covid-19

mummabear1967 · 2020-07-28T22:50:24+00:00

Hi All I’ve just read this article by the daily mirror that apparently Boris Johnson thinks there could be a second wave of Covid-19 in the U.K. in 2 weeks. Anyone think this will happen or does anyone think it’s the DM just talking bull sh1t as usual? [[https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-boris-johnson-fears-uk-22432682]]

cathyandclare · 03/08/2020 16:59

Obviously hoping it's anything but 1! Realistically it's probably a combination of them all.

Orchidsindoors · 03/08/2020 17:04

"16:56Realitea

938 cases today? That is seriously bad. We were down to 300 and something a few weeks ago. I have the same feeling I had in late February when I could see it all coming but no one was doing anything to stop it."

Yes we'd gone down from 1000 a day to down in the 400's I think. I've been watching a gradual weekly rise, it's been 700 odd for a few week, then 938 today. It was quite high at the weekend too so not a catch up of cases from Sunday.

sunseekin · 03/08/2020 17:10

@Realitea

938 cases today? That is seriously bad. We were down to 300 and something a few weeks ago. I have the same feeling I had in late February when I could see it all coming but no one was doing anything to stop it.

Me too 😢 still Boris bravado about school plans going ahead as planned etc, it feels like they’re trying to squeeze what money they can into the economy again before they say the science was wrong.

CountessFrog · 03/08/2020 17:10

I think it’s a combination of things, exactly as Cathyandclare suggests.

She’s old enough to remember Jackie, like me!

TheEmojiFormerlyKnownAsPrince · 03/08/2020 17:14

We decided to go on holiday this year to North Yorks.

Just escaped from Whiby! Just terrible. No SD anywhere. Cafes and restaurants full with little social distance between tables. It was like a normal holiday time.

We masked up and ran away.

Keepgoing88 · 03/08/2020 17:15

Sorry if this has already been asked or answered but I'm confused that altho the infections are increasing why isn't the hospital admissions ? Is it that we are catching more mild cases ?

labyrinthloafer · 03/08/2020 17:15

@Keepgoing88

Sorry if this has already been asked or answered but I'm confused that altho the infections are increasing why isn't the hospital admissions ? Is it that we are catching more mild cases ?

Younger people, less likely to need hospital treatment.

starfish4 · 03/08/2020 17:16

900+ isn't great, especially as I thought numbers were originally lower on a Monday. Will be keeping a very close eye on local numbers here.

PatriciaHolm · 03/08/2020 17:18

@Orchidsindoors

"16:56Realitea

938 cases today? That is seriously bad. We were down to 300 and something a few weeks ago. I have the same feeling I had in late February when I could see it all coming but no one was doing anything to stop it."

Yes we'd gone down from 1000 a day to down in the 400's I think. I've been watching a gradual weekly rise, it's been 700 odd for a few week, then 938 today. It was quite high at the weekend too so not a catch up of cases from Sunday.

The last time we had a number in the 300s was 398, on the 14th.

Then, 7 day running average of P1 & P2 tests was 103k/day with a 7 day running average of positivity of 0.58%.

Today, we have a seven day running average of P1&P2 tests of 136k, and a 7 day running average of positivity of 0.58%.

I would really like to know where those test are, because I think it's entirely possible that all the observed case growth at present is coming from increased tests in concerning areas.

CountessFrog · 03/08/2020 17:20

It does beg the question whether we ought to have insisted on shielding the vulnerable from the very beginning.

I appreciate even healthy young people died.

High numbers of infections and low numbers of deaths would be a different matter wouldnt it.

midgebabe · 03/08/2020 17:20

Why not simultaneous increase in hospitalisation?

I suspect a combination of catching more of the asymptotic cases with broader testing, a smaller proportion of older people being infected due to additional caution, and ( most concerning) there is often a lag of 1 to 2 weeks between cases and hospitalisation

Shitfuckoh · 03/08/2020 17:21

Looking at todays figures included on the graph, whilst the 938 is spread over a few days, it has made the 29th July total now 929

labyrinthloafer · 03/08/2020 17:22

@CountessFrog

It does beg the question whether we ought to have insisted on shielding the vulnerable from the very beginning.

I appreciate even healthy young people died.

High numbers of infections and low numbers of deaths would be a different matter wouldnt it.

Please feel free to get out and catch it but with c.10% having persistent symptoms, which is a real worry for those of working age, I'm happy to let you go first!

CountessFrog · 03/08/2020 17:23

No perfect solution

SomeWateryTart · 03/08/2020 17:23

@labyrinthloafer

It seems to me as if a balance needs to be struck between full lockdown (not good for the ecomony) and a total free for all (a bit like the states). I actually think, for all their faults and they are many, the government is trying to do this.

I think they're just falling between two stools really, they need to decide what the f they are trying to achieve, set out a plan and enact it.

They're just drifting.

But the thing is, actually, with something like this, the 'normal' politics goes out the window. Normally we want governments to stick to their agreed plan. If they do a u turn we all laugh and say "what a joke", but, actually, the science, (ha! That famous THE science, but you know what I mean, I hope), is changing daily, weekly. Sticking to an agreed plan would be fucking insane.

Ugh can't believe I've defended them again, but you know. Exceptional times.

Shitfuckoh · 03/08/2020 17:24

I've got to agree with @labyrinthloafer @CountessFrog, I'm more than happy for you to be ahead of me in the queue!!

labyrinthloafer · 03/08/2020 17:24

@midgebabe

Why not simultaneous increase in hospitalisation?

I suspect a combination of catching more of the asymptotic cases with broader testing, a smaller proportion of older people being infected due to additional caution, and ( most concerning) there is often a lag of 1 to 2 weeks between cases and hospitalisation

If the positivity % has stayed the same (as indicated above by pp), it means the number in the community has risen, rather than you are finding more?

labyrinthloafer · 03/08/2020 17:26

@SomeWateryTart I am quite happy for them to U-turn in the face on new evidence, but just to float about uselessly isn't really a viable long term strategy.

They haven't got a scooby, everyone can see it.

midgebabe · 03/08/2020 17:28

Only if you are not focussing your testing on specific areas?

CountessFrog · 03/08/2020 17:30

Why couldn’t they have properly have shielded the vulnerable and had the rest of us social distancing?

I’m perfectly capable of judging what that means. I sanitise my hands after I touch anything in public, I don’t go near people, I WFH.

We could have made a better job of this if we had insisted on shielding rather than suggesting it. My elderly MIL refused to shield, for example.

Moondust001 · 03/08/2020 17:31

Second wave of what? To have a second wave, there would have had to be an end to the first one. Suppression is not (even when it works, and it hasn't) an end to a "wave". The virus is still out there, it never went away, and it was simply lurking until we all came out again. Some viruses burn out (we should be so lucky). Some viruses occur in waves. And others are just "there". So far, the evidence suggests that covid 19 may be one of the latter. And if anyone was actually listening to Chris Whitty over the last week, that is what he has been saying, albeit in a "quiet" way because the government don't seem to want us to focus on that. So we now have a choice, barring the burning out naturally option - we stay in lockdown until they're is a vaccine, or the vast majority of us accept that this is the world we live in and get on with life. Personally, I'm less worried about the insignificant risks of the virus than I am about having no life.

PatriciaHolm · 03/08/2020 17:32

If the positivity % has stayed the same (as indicated above by pp), it means the number in the community has risen, rather than you are finding more?

No - if the same % of tests are positive now as were 3 weeks ago, it suggests levels of infection are the same; the same percentage of the population are currently infected. We are finding more in terms of numbers because we are testing more.

I suspect in actuality it is a combination of both testing more and a slight increase in (probably localised) prevalence.

labyrinthloafer · 03/08/2020 17:34

@midgebabe

Only if you are not focussing your testing on specific areas?

No, I think the fact the number of cases is up, but the % of positives is flat, is a bad thing.

(Desperately hoping someone who can put this into better words will come along)

cathyandclare · 03/08/2020 17:35

If the positivity % has stayed the same (as indicated above by pp), it means the number in the community has risen, rather than you are finding more?

No it could also reflect the fact that we're testing more - so 0.58% positive is a higher number.

SomeWateryTart · 03/08/2020 17:35

[quote labyrinthloafer]@SomeWateryTart I am quite happy for them to U-turn in the face on new evidence, but just to float about uselessly isn't really a viable long term strategy.

They haven't got a scooby, everyone can see it.[/quote]
I mean...does anyone know what they're doing, really? It's pretty unprecedented. I would wager they, between them, know more than most.

I am usually pretty quick enough to express despair at the Tory government, especially the more right wing lot we have now. But, tbf to them, not many people have a scooby. It's a new virus. The economy is notoriously complex to predict. Brexit is on the horizon (yay ) and that is another unprecedented event. I honestly think nobody has a scooby at the moment.

I won't say I agree with everything the government has done. I thought we should have locked down earlier and big events like Cheltenham should never have happened. Intuitively, I thought borders should have been closed, but actually, when you get down to the practicalities of feeding the country and getting expats home etc, I can also see why that didn't happen. I definitely think they should be challenged. I would never have unquestioning loyalty to any government. That way dictatorships lie. But personally, I don't think they have handled or are handling this as badly as some people think.

This surprises me more than anyone! But despite my dislike of them, I am able to be objective to a point, I guess.