Second wave of Covid-19

[mummabear1967]

Hi All

I’ve just read this article by the daily mirror that apparently Boris Johnson thinks there could be a second wave of Covid-19 in the U.K. in 2 weeks.

Anyone think this will happen or does anyone think it’s the DM just talking bull sh1t as usual?

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-boris-johnson-fears-uk-22432682

@joan04

I’ve just read this article by the daily mirror

You should have stopped there OP.

The MSM are just dramatising the whole situation and creating fear and anxiety knowing all this clickbait is being shared on sites like Mumsnet and Twitter increasing their advertising revenue.

Last week Boris said he hoped social distancing might be able to end by November. Today he has said this.

Try and use your own judgement by looking at figures on the .gov website and peer reviewed scientific journals. That will give you a better idea of what's going on.

This!!!!

@MrsWhites

The irony of Boris telling us we need to be careful of following Europe into a second wave...whilst simultaneously beginning an eat out to help out scheme, actively encouraging people back into workplaces and reopening schools with ‘bubbles’ of 300 kids in the next few weeks!

Almost as if he makes it up as he goes along, changes with the wind or with whichever lobbyists have been in his ear that morning.

I'm holding onto every glimmer of hope that we won't have a second wave. I read this article earlier that Vietnam has a new, more contagious strain now which is leading to them having a spike. According to the news article, this strain has been found also in Bangladesh, Britain and Ireland.

www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-vietnam-battles-covid-19-strain-not-seen-in-country-before-12038457

So in this little world of hope I have conjured up in my head, we have had the most contagious strain known so far, which might be reflected in our numbers. Maybe the rest of the world is yet to deal with this strain? I dunno, just trying to seek positivity! 🙈

@DottyDuvet

I'm holding onto every glimmer of hope that we won't have a second wave. I read this article earlier that Vietnam has a new, more contagious strain now which is leading to them having a spike. According to the news article, this strain has been found also in Bangladesh, Britain and Ireland.

www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-vietnam-battles-covid-19-strain-not-seen-in-country-before-12038457

So in this little world of hope I have conjured up in my head, we have had the most contagious strain known so far, which might be reflected in our numbers. Maybe the rest of the world is yet to deal with this strain? I dunno, just trying to seek positivity! 🙈

Me too! I certainly hope there isn’t another strain on the way! That’s all we need. Honestly, can this virus just not go and fuck itself?

Simple online pharmacy huge data breaches, tons of customers had hundreds of pounds stolen and medical information stolen. The company is trying to silence the story by drowning out comments on trustpilot with fake positive reviews. How is this not headline news??

I've been listening to Dr John Campbell for a while now (not since the start, but a couple of months now). He's really informative and explains things really well. He reports from around the world and has listeners from all round the world. He's correctly predicted a lot of things. It's not just his opinion though, he backs it up with research and data and evaluates their quality. He says he feels optimistic because the government and public have learnt things about the virus and are more effective at dealing with It

Didn’t European WHO suggest it’s the first wave that not ended yet. In England they haven’t really suppressed the virus, unlike the devolved countries who are trying to suppress it. I’d listen to WHO rather than the Mirror or Doris.

He is on record for saying about a new wave in 2 weeks bbc.

I’m actually starting to get really frightened. This just feels like it’s never going to end and we’re never going to be able to do all the things we just to do properly. Just want this to come to an end

The lady at Oxford gets up at 4am every morning and works untill 8. There are many highly gifted academics like her who finally have the funding and resources to do what they've been working to do for a long time. This is going on globally. There is no reason to think a vaccine is unlikely to be with us. No guarantees but every reason to hang in there. And better treatments beginning available too.

It will end, but people need to be realistic that it isn't ending at the moment. I know covid isn't flu, but apparently the Spanish flu pandemic lasted 3 years. Approximately 10% of the world's population has had it (COVID-19) and either died or recovered so far. Because it's very infectious, this will go on until about 90% have been infected, or there's a vaccine. So when you think about it like that, we are still at the start of this pandemic. They are learning about treatments and doing research all the time though, so we are getting better at dealing with it.

I need this to end now. So completely and utterly done.

@5363738383j

The wave word is a bit of a red herring. Cases will increase if we bring back Covid from other countries and spread what we already have around by ending social distancing. This is all happening. So cases will increase unless we have a great test and trace system to squash them. We don't have that. So cases will increase. How much we can limit that outside of lockdown is hard to tell.

This really, it isn't a second wave - Whitty said this.

This is the result of:

Locking down too late + unlocking too early + unlocking very quickly + encouraging everyone to get out, travel, bustle.

We had very high cases when we locked down, still had high levels when we unlocked and have taken steps which inevitably caused them to rise again.

What. A. Mess.

I'm no fan of this government. I would never vote for the Tories full stop and certainly not for the likes of BJ.

However, I think there has been a knee jerk reaction by many, many people, saying the government have made a total horlicks of this and are going to be far worse hit than any other country etc. I actually don't think this is necessarily true. It's a global pandemic and some of the countries people were comparing the UK to very unfavourably at the beginning have gone on to be badly hit.

It's pretty easy to say oh what a mess and we're doing it all wrong. But actually, we could be going in and out of lockdown for the foreseeable. It seems to me as if a balance needs to be struck between full lockdown (not good for the ecomony) and a total free for all (a bit like the states). I actually think, for all their faults and they are many, the government is trying to do this.

Can't believe I just defended BJ and the Tories .

I'm going to stick my neck out and say there will be no second wave (which nobody has defined but I'm going to say is c.1000 deaths a day in the UK, like back in April).
There will be increased cases from improved testing vs what we had back in March and April) and occasional deaths, as with any infectious viral agent (including the other coronaviruses), mostly in the already vulnerable.

This is based in looking at the data: 

Which didn't lost damnit

It seems to me as if a balance needs to be struck between full lockdown (not good for the ecomony) and a total free for all (a bit like the states). I actually think, for all their faults and they are many, the government is trying to do this.

I think they're just falling between two stools really, they need to decide what the f they are trying to achieve, set out a plan and enact it.

They're just drifting.

938 daily cases today. It's been rising every day for about 3 weeks now, the curve is on the way up again. If that's not the start if a second wave, I dont know what is.

The term second wave is a bit iffy if you ask me... Spanish flu was seasonal so the second wave naturally came back after going away for a bit... We flattened the curve ourselves.. Is was never going to go away like that and it was always going to increase again once things started to open up. Surely that was obvious and people didn't actually think we could open up without cases increasing again? It's not a second wave just the first waves being able to continue as there are more hosts out and about to infect.

Can anyone tell me, if cases are rising, why are deaths so low?

Deaths could be low because:

1. There is a time lag between increased cases and increased admissions and a further lag before deaths.
2. Younger people may be getting it and are having milder infections.
3. We are picking up more asymptomatic spread because we are testing more, tests are freely available and we are sending mobile units to hotspots.
4. We are treating Covid better because the hospital staff have learned through experience and as a result of research.
5. Potentially we may be immunologically stronger in the summer- Vit D and all that.

Also

1. Many of the very vulnerable may have already succumbed in care homes, hospices and hospitals.

938 cases today? That is seriously bad. We were down to 300 and something a few weeks ago. I have the same feeling I had in late February when I could see it all coming but no one was doing anything to stop it.

Thanks cathyandclare.

Looking at www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/08/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-3-August-2020.xlsx deaths are down to 2 a day in hospitals.

"45FluffyKittensinabasket

Can anyone tell me, if cases are rising, why are deaths so low?"

Deaths typically occur a few weeks after symptoms, thinking was an average of 21 days at one point. Plus we have got better at treating it and have room to treat more so arent telling people not to turn up at acandce unless their lips are blue!!