Feeling a bit duped about the seriousness of Covid....

[mostwonderfultime]

Found out my district of 55,000 people there have been 156 confirmed covid cases since March. Now I hear there is an enquiry into the over reporting of Covid deaths in England. Average death rate has now lower than average indicating many people who died from Covid would probably died in the next month or so. No surge in Covid cases or deaths since relaxing lockdown measures (I know about Leicester, but we all know reasons why they have more cases and again they haven't had a spike in deaths).
In the meantime, the economy is screwed, Kids have been off school for months, best friends business has gone bust.

Yeah, get where you’re coming from OP.

I feel pretty duped by losing my 51 year old friend, with no underlying conditions, to Covid.....I mean, seriously, only one dead friend, how bad could it have been, eh.

Glad you’re only feeling a bit duped and not heartbroken.

Well said @RafaIsTheKingOfClay

I vaguely recall it was a H1N1, as was the 2008? Swine 'flu. The seasonal 'flu vaccination often contains a H1N1 as well as a couple of others. There's some craft to anticipating which strains are likely to run hence what to vaccinate against. There are good and bad years of the vaccination effectiveness.

The CDC explanation seemed quite good to me.

I do honestly think we need to focus and get perspective...it is for many mild or unpleasant but manageable. It's not an automatic death sentence if you get it. I think the genuine fear people have is a bigger problem to be honest. A short lockdown maybe but not months and months of it

Hardly, a successful vaccine has already pretty much been found

Wow, you really don't know what you are talking about. The very very early stages of vaccine development are reported to have gone well. If we are really lucky, we might have a product ready for mass vaccination in 2 years' time. Then we will still have to work out how to mass-produce and adminster it to the population of the entire world. And we don't know whether it will require repeated doses - if it works at all.

Think of all the billions that have been thrown at developing vaccines for HIV and malaria and yet, after decades of trying, we still don't have usable vaccines for either.

@Badbadbunny

Why do you think the excess deaths stopped before the NHS ‘reopened’?

Fewer car accidents due to lockdown meaning fewer cars on the road.

Fewer alcohol induced accidents due to pubs/clubs being closed.

Fewer sport/hobby accidents due to lockdown.

There were many reports from A&E depts saying they weren't seeing any of the above due to people staying behind closed doors and only going out for essentials (as per lockdown).

But all those were the same at the start of the lockdown and during the peak weeks of excess death. Probably more so. That makes no sense.

@KayEngel

I agree. In years to come, they will say we did the wrong thing.

Absolutely. History will judge this debacle very harshly.

Also for the people who say only 5% have had it due to antibody testing, the science on this has moved on from march. It was thought antibody tests would be the key to getting us out of this.Antibodies are not a good way to estimate how many people have had it as loads dont produce them and use T Cells instead. It was also reported that under 40s dont seem to produce them at all, so we cannot use antibodies to estimate the scale of the situation.

There have been about 5 studies on this now. I have attached the main one that has been peer reviewed.
There was also an interesting article in the BBC explaining it yesterday.

www.bbc.com/future/article/20200716-the-people-with-hidden-protection-from-covid-19

www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z

Whenever I feel that the U.S. has all the science-denying fools, I can come here and regain a tiny sliver of national pride. Thanks for reminding me once again that Stupid knows no borders.

But we aren’t the worst effected country in Europe if you consider excess deaths per 100k population, which it’s hard to argue isn’t a fair measure.

@Durgasarrow

Whenever I feel that the U.S. has all the science-denying fools, I can come here and regain a tiny sliver of national pride. Thanks for reminding me once again that Stupid knows no borders.

Indeed.

From an article in the Guardian, it appears that it's just Public Health England whose numbers are in question. The Office for National Statistics counts things differently and doesn't have the same problem. And in any case it is argued that PHE's over-reporting is not likely to be statistically that significant.

@MrsNoah2020

Hardly, a successful vaccine has already pretty much been found

Wow, you really don't know what you are talking about. The very very early stages of vaccine development are reported to have gone well. If we are really lucky, we might have a product ready for mass vaccination in 2 years' time. Then we will still have to work out how to mass-produce and adminster it to the population of the entire world. And we don't know whether it will require repeated doses - if it works at all.

Think of all the billions that have been thrown at developing vaccines for HIV and malaria and yet, after decades of trying, we still don't have usable vaccines for either.

But they think they may have a working vaccine for November for a small group? And it's in production already

Remain cautious and plan your life on the basis the virus will be with us until at least the end of summer 2021.

No you're alright thanks love.

@feelingverylazytoday

Go and read up on Florida, Texas and Arizona. That's how it would have been here if we hadn't locked down, only with an even higher death rate because doctors didn't have the same knowledge of treatments. Our cases and death rates are tailing off now because we're coming out of lockdown in a slow controlled manner. They can very easily start rising again.

I'm in one of these places now. These areas have huge populations, Texas has nearly 30m people in it. The sky is not falling as the media would have you believe, it's pretty much business as usual with everyone using masks.

@mostwonderfultime

Found out my district of 55,000 people there have been 156 confirmed covid cases since March. Now I hear there is an enquiry into the over reporting of Covid deaths in England. Average death rate has now lower than average indicating many people who died from Covid would probably died in the next month or so. No surge in Covid cases or deaths since relaxing lockdown measures (I know about Leicester, but we all know reasons why they have more cases and again they haven't had a spike in deaths). In the meantime, the economy is screwed, Kids have been off school for months, best friends business has gone bust.

#1 How many would have died without lockdown

#2 the whole world did it so there's just a chance that the whole world was right and that it's you who has it wrong. Just a tiny little chance obviously.

Whilst some people were ridiculous, there was a new virus and thousands were dying.

Unfortunately what happens now we've finally locked down and things get under control is the inevitable 'see see, look it wasn't that bad now was it... Look at how silly you were. Me and my DC didn't bother following lockdown at all'.

Catspaw, which vaccine do you have in mind? If it's the Oxford one then it's the 'working' that's the issue. Simplistically, 'The results so far are promising, but their main purpose is to ensure the vaccine is safe enough to give to people. The study cannot show whether the vaccine can either prevent people from becoming ill or even lessen their symptoms of Covid-19.' That's for the next stage.

I vaguely recall there's around half a dozen vaccines that are already progressing to that next stage but I don't recall seeing any that would be justifiably called 'working' yet.

I think there might be a final question about whether/how long any immunity would persist, if they do work. There's some interesting cases where immunity didn't last in ways that might be unusual in relatively healthy individuals for other diseases that have successful vaccinations.

Equally, some people think that the Japanese population seemed to have some persistent immunity to COVID from a historical infection of a different disease.

COVID seems quite complex.

There's no human corona virus vaccination but one for chickens I think and only one for mammals, cows possibly. It could be that there wasn't enough money thrown at the problem. It's not impossible that there's a fundamental issue with human corona viruses and we might never have one, based on the current state of the art of vaccine science. Progress for COVID vaccination is encouraging but has no certainty.

Yes it was the oxford one. Yesterday sounded so positive

@Catspaw123

Yes it was the oxford one. Yesterday sounded so positive

'Positive' is not allowed on mumsnet though.

'Positive' is not allowed on mumsnet though.

Surely realistic and accurate is what we should want?

Yes it was the oxford one. Yesterday sounded so positive

It is positive. Not a done deal by any means, but yes positive. There are other promising vaccines coming up behind it too.

That doesn’t suit the doom mongers on here though.

There is still a very strong wave of Covid Hysteria on MN. And for that alone, you won't get a balanced view on this OP.

The enquiry into this pandemic in years to come will show the huge over reaction to what is little more than a seasonal flu that's taken out people in their last stages of life. The bulk of deaths have been people over 80 who were either hospitalised or in care homes.

The lockdown was nothing more than to protect the shit show that is the NHS. We had already passed the peak, as the virus was getting weaker with transmission. Just like seasonal flu.

Sadly, even when the High streets have finally died, millions are unemployed, millions have died due to lack of medical care and diagnosis, we are in a deep recession and have to live through decades of austerity measures - people will still argue that it was justified.

The WHO have already stated that asymptomatic transmission is impossible, so if those who have symptoms isolate, there is no further risk to public health. I literally want to scream now in frustration.

Catspaw, it was positive in terms of progressing to the next stage, it's just that the next stage(s) will be needed before any scaling up and administering. I vaguely recall there's around half dozen at the same stage and 50+ earlier than that.

I imagine it's when it stops being called a study and patients start being inoculated therapeutically that the pessimists/realists will be happy.

@Hearhoovesthinkzebras

'Positive' is not allowed on mumsnet though.

Surely realistic and accurate is what we should want?

All the news about the vaccine has been positive. It is in the news today that HCPs and vulnerable people should be vaccinated by xmas. Theyve reported it produces a good antibody and t cell response. This is is positive. Yet all you hear on here is nope it will take 2 years and it won't work!