Feeling a bit duped about the seriousness of Covid....

[mostwonderfultime]

Found out my district of 55,000 people there have been 156 confirmed covid cases since March. Now I hear there is an enquiry into the over reporting of Covid deaths in England. Average death rate has now lower than average indicating many people who died from Covid would probably died in the next month or so. No surge in Covid cases or deaths since relaxing lockdown measures (I know about Leicester, but we all know reasons why they have more cases and again they haven't had a spike in deaths).
In the meantime, the economy is screwed, Kids have been off school for months, best friends business has gone bust.

We are all thinking this now, but then, think back to italy late feb to early april! That still happened.
How could we know?

@BakedBlossoms

Wait until 2022 and see if you still feel duped. This is just the beginning.

Hardly, a successful vaccine has already pretty much been found.

This is the problem with having medical trials being commentated on as they're happening by journalists who lack the experience to know what they're talking about.

A vaccine has not 'pretty much been found'. What's been demonstrated is that a number of vaccines elicit immune responses in the form of antibodies and T-cells.

Some of those antibodies are neutralising, meaning they're on target for this virus. Others are not neutralising - they're antibodies that are off target. Why does this matter? Off target antibodies may cause something called antibody dependent enhancement. It was a feature of the SARS vaccines that were in development. Off target antibodies actually make infection worse.

www.nature.com/articles/s41587-020-0577-1

www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2020.01120/full

These vaccines may actually make infection worse. The only way we'll know whether they do is when a significant number of vaccinated people have been exposed to the virus, which is why large scale studies are underway in Brazil, India and elsewhere.

Even if the vaccines work as intended, they will be the first successful vaccines against human coronaviruses. Our natural immunity to coronavirus infection is temporary, lasting between 30 days and 3 years, depending on the variety of coronavirus and the individual's immune system. There is no reason to expect the vaccines will give us anything other than temporary protection, which is a problem for the Oxford virus in particular. It uses a genetically engineered chimpanzee adenovirus as the wrapper to deliver the SARS-CoV-2 spike. Humans will become immune to the wrapper, making the delivery mechanism ineffective. The Oxford technology was designed for diseases we can elicit long-term immunity to: TB, influenza etc. It may run into trouble if it needs to be boosted on a regular basis.

Based on the Oxford vaccine data, which is showing that 10% of people who participated did not produce any antibodies whatsoever, I believe the vaccines will encounter exactly the same issues as people who've been infected with live virus. Immunity will be short-lived, some people will not develop any immunity at all, and reinfection will be a persistent problem.

It's also worth pointing out that some scientists believe we're already seeing antibody dependent enhancement through cross infection of the different strains of the virus, which is why some countries are experiencing higher mortality rates than others.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.13.20152959v1

So, no, a vaccine has not been pretty much found, and even if it has, it will be of limited use and take a few years to distribute to the global population. Remain cautious and plan your life on the basis the virus will be with us until at least the end of summer 2021.

"But in reading and such threads, do bear in mind that MN is trolled to high heaven and there is a huge amount of bullshit and exaggeration on here."

Pretty apt description of this thread.

Totally ignoring that we do know what happens when you dont lock down - you get this (warning grave picture, but the OP might ejoy those) www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-53429430

And no - the government, not Boris in particular, do not get let off this. They locked down late, they imposed nonsensical rules and then ignored them when it suited them. They had underfunded and run down the NHS and PHE. They failed to provide enough PPE or to ensure what the country did have wa looked after. They let contracts to various mates who were just as incompetent at doing tests, running track and trace and sourcing PPE that turned up late and unusable.

You can create as many internet trolls as you want but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.

CAM77, that's a bit harsh on goldfish.

At the risk of sounding like a conspiracy theorist, I suspect some PPs have direction to their 'beliefs'.

To be fair, Climbed, I've seen at least some reporting of the Oxford vaccine to be measured -

BBC - 'The results so far are promising, but their main purpose is to ensure the vaccine is safe enough to give to people.
The study cannot show whether the vaccine can either prevent people from becoming ill or even lessen their symptoms of Covid-19.'

though I agree in general. Even 'science correspondents' on BBC web, Radio 4 and The Guardian and the Times regularly/frequently have howlers and I don't think their the worst in the media. The distinction between virus and bacteria seems to be difficult to grasp.

These vaccines may actually make infection worse.

As happened with a Dengue fever vaccination in children.

@Zilla1

it really beggars belief, doesn't it.

"yeah, but its not been that bad though". BECAUSE we locked down (eventually) ffs!

@Cam77 those scenes were bad as it was very unknown and anybody who was ill went to hospital. As opposed to only the 20% of infected people that would have needed too... This lead to health systems being overwhelmed... It was not the virus that caused all of that but that they didn't know everything we do about it now.

[quote Furries]@CodexDevinchi - what thread is that, and where is it? Would be interested to read it.[/quote]
@Furries

Apologies here it is www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/3748017-Anyone-else-got-this-horrendous-cough-and-cold

ive not really looked at the daily figures ive looked at the comparison between last years deaths and this years and there is an increase

how can people deny deaths are happening

@ClimbDad if that's all true, then surely we just needed to return to normal as a vaccine will be useless anyway? We can't hide forever.

"We are at the very beginning of this pandemic. In the absence of a cure or vaccine, it will last at least two years, probably longer because we can't build up long-term immunity to human coronaviruses."

False.

www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.26.115832v1.full

www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z

Thus, infection with betacoronaviruses induces strong and long-lasting T cell immunity to the structural protein NP. Understanding how pre-existing ORF-1-specific T cells present in the general population impact susceptibility and pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 infection is of paramount importance for the management of the current COVID-19 pandemic.

SARS-CoV-2 belongs to Coronaviridae, a family of large RNA viruses infecting many animal species. Six other coronaviruses are known to infect humans. Four of them are endemically transmitted and cause common cold (OC43, HKU1, 229E and NL63), while SARS-CoV (defined from now as SARS-CoV-1) and MERS-CoV have caused limited epidemics of severe pneumonia6. All of them trigger antibody and T cell responses in infected patients: however, antibody levels appear to wane relatively quicker than T cells.

These findings demonstrate that virus-specific memory T cells induced by betacoronanvirus infection are long-lasting, which supports the notion that COVID-19 patients would develop long-term T cell immunity. Furthermore, our findings also raise the intriguing possibility that infection with related viruses can also protect from or modify the pathology caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection.

@Badbadbunny

How do you account for the excess deaths that we had? What caused them, if not Covid?

The NHS closing down for everything except Covid perhaps? But, of course, that's still caused by covid indirectly.

Why do you think the excess deaths stopped before the NHS ‘reopened’?

Some areas have got off very lightly but a lot of that will be due to the lockdown.

The areas that locked down with a low rate of cases will see low figures due to the lockdown. It was mostly spreading like wildfire in the big city areas, like London.

@cam77

It should beggar belief but my expectations have significantly dropped.

I suspect a mixture of routine stupidity and directed, possibly by people wanting to preclude any possibility for further lockdowns or to sew discord.

I know some IRL who don't need help beyond looking at Youtube. I've been told many times I'm a sheeple who just needs to think for myself and scratch the surface. Oddly, when I ask some questions and it contradicts the laws of physics or settled biological science, there's nothing deeper than 'this video, by a doctor/scientist showed...'.

But over the last few months, there seems to be some direction too. Reminds me of Brexit.

And to those claiming spanish flu lasted 2 years... There was 2 peaks one in October then another in the following march... So 6 months between the 2 peaks not 2 years

Globally Spanish flu lasted over 2 years

Is our seasonal flu a variant of the original Spanish flu? So it never really 100% disappeared

Just modified and became something we learnt to manage?

I'm beginning to feel a little duped about this bubonic plague malarky. I know some scaremongers have said it might cause between a third and a half of the population to die and significantly change the socio-economic status of serfs but that's all fake news. In my hut, we've not had anything like half the hut die yet. The economic effects of closing down the agricultural feudal economy can't be afforded. Kids have been out of the fields for months. If ever a profession of historian is created, there'll say we were fools. It's nothing more than a bad cold and no one ever died of a cold. We're stealing our children's future.

Why do you think the excess deaths stopped before the NHS ‘reopened’?

Fewer car accidents due to lockdown meaning fewer cars on the road.

Fewer alcohol induced accidents due to pubs/clubs being closed.

Fewer sport/hobby accidents due to lockdown.

There were many reports from A&E depts saying they weren't seeing any of the above due to people staying behind closed doors and only going out for essentials (as per lockdown).

Some may be @Rebelwithallthecause and others are derived from other old and new strains. We learn to live (or die) with many viruses. Some we vaccinate from, some we learn to treat, some give us protection to their more deadly kin. Just dont be fooled by the myth that they de facto become milder over time, it's not true.

Are you complaining more people haven’t died in the UK?.

@Badbadbunny go do the math, there's a love.

[quote Forgone90]@Cam77 those scenes were bad as it was very unknown and anybody who was ill went to hospital. As opposed to only the 20% of infected people that would have needed too... This lead to health systems being overwhelmed... It was not the virus that caused all of that but that they didn't know everything we do about it now.[/quote]
Absolute bollocks. ICU departments were overrun. We’re all those people that turned up and didn’t need to met with some bored doctors who decided to tube them just for something to do?
And it would be a massive coincidence if that had happened in several cities across different countries and continents.

Never mind critical thinking, I suspect some people have just stopped thinking completely.