Feeling a bit duped about the seriousness of Covid....

[mostwonderfultime]

Found out my district of 55,000 people there have been 156 confirmed covid cases since March. Now I hear there is an enquiry into the over reporting of Covid deaths in England. Average death rate has now lower than average indicating many people who died from Covid would probably died in the next month or so. No surge in Covid cases or deaths since relaxing lockdown measures (I know about Leicester, but we all know reasons why they have more cases and again they haven't had a spike in deaths).
In the meantime, the economy is screwed, Kids have been off school for months, best friends business has gone bust.

@KayEngel @Lightsabre
The most callous, nasty comments regarding coronavirus I have ever seen on here. So you think the peoples on the lungs threads just fucked up their lives for the crack?? Have you actually read the lungs threads in any detail? Because I struggle to see how someone could make a comment with such little empathy for what those people have gone through and are still going through now.

My brother caught coronavirus at the start of March and life for him is looking like it will never be the same again. The long term effects and symptoms of covid have been completely debilitating for him. No, he is not a hypochondriac. He was previously someone who regularly competed in triathalons and travelled the world as a part of his job. He was the fittest person I knew.

They don't know at what point of the illness people test positive:
'If you get the nasal/throat swab or saliva test, you will get a false negative test result:
100% of the time on the day you are exposed to the virus. (There are so few viral particles in your nose or saliva so soon after infection that the test cannot detect them.)
About 40% of the time if you are tested four days after exposure to the virus.
About 20% of the time if you develop symptoms and are tested three days after those symptoms started.
This possibility of a false negative test result is why anyone who has symptoms that could be due to COVID-19, or has been exposed to someone known to be infected, must isolate even if they test negative for coronavirus.'

Er, @SouthernskinNorthernsoul, you have got the wrong end of the stick - I am on the Lungs threads!

This is presumably very concerning if it means that people who had it in Spring may very well be susceptible to it again this Winter? So no one can assume that because they've had it they are now immune?

Yes. It's very hard to be sure at this early stage, because apparent cases of re-infection may actually be due to misdiagnosis (the patient has really had Covid once, but had something else the other time). But most doctors do not expect Covid immunity to be long-term, based on how similar viruses behave and early research on Covid.

If we do get a vaccine, we may need to give it every year - maybe even more often - for it to be effective -another reason not to be relying on a vaccine to put life back to normal. A vaccine is likely to be helpful for targeted groups like HCPs, people who are immunosuppressed, people needing surgery etc, but the logistical difficulties of repeatedly immunising the entire population, potentially several times a year, would be staggering.

If we do get a vaccine, we may need to give it every year - maybe even more often - for it to be effective -another reason not to be relying on a vaccine to put life back to normal. A vaccine is likely to be helpful for targeted groups like HCPs, people who are immunosuppressed, people needing surgery etc, but the logistical difficulties of repeatedly immunising the entire population, potentially several times a year, would be staggering.

Especially when GP surgeries don't want those pesky patients in their buildings!

@mostwonderfultime

Found out my district of 55,000 people there have been 156 confirmed covid cases since March. Now I hear there is an enquiry into the over reporting of Covid deaths in England. Average death rate has now lower than average indicating many people who died from Covid would probably died in the next month or so. No surge in Covid cases or deaths since relaxing lockdown measures (I know about Leicester, but we all know reasons why they have more cases and again they haven't had a spike in deaths). In the meantime, the economy is screwed, Kids have been off school for months, best friends business has gone bust.

How's the eyesight coming along Dominic?

I'm increasingly of the opinion that aiming for elimination would be a far better strategy - particularly at the moment when levels of infection are relatively low. Sure there would be some short term economic harms but that would be dwarfed by the long term economic harms if it's true that a)reinfection is possible multiple times and b)ADE can occur. (i.e more severe disease with subsequent infections).

Merely pointing out that something being published in the Lancet doesn't make it true.

I can't even.

Sorry if I have tagged the wrong person @Lightsabre - I am actually in shock at some of the comments on here. We have struggled as a family as it is helping my brother with his recovery. To read people basically accusing people of making this stuff up is literally horrifying. It makes me feel nervous about sharing our struggles with anyone in rl.

That's okay @SouthernskinNorthernsoul - I've been suffering myself for four months and had my lung CT scan today. I've received great support from the Mumsnet Lungs long termer threads. Someone has obviously replied to my posts, quoting my post then adding their comment. I feel the same way as you and I hope your brother starts to improve soon.

That's okay @SouthernskinNorthernsoul - I've been suffering myself for four months and had my lung CT scan today. I've received great support from the Mumsnet Lungs long termer threads. Someone has obviously replied to my posts, quoting my post then adding their comment. I feel the same way as you and I hope your brother starts to improve soon.

Kazzy, well here in England we're already planning on how to deliver the seasonal 'flu programme in surgery in a COVID 'risk-managed way' and in housebound patients' homes unless government decide to have it delivered differently (somewhat centrally). We're anticipating a larger than normal uptake as lots of eligible patients who've previously not bothered seem interested this year for some reason, similar to patients who've not wanted an inhaler for years suddenly needed a new script urgently in the last few months.

@IloveJKRowling

ClimbDad thanks so much for your contribution to these threads - I'm learning a lot.

Can you explain ADE or link to a source that doesn't require a degree in immunology to understand? I'm trying to get my head around it because it seems counterintuitive - I've heard of vaccines that were in development and in clinical trials showed they could also produce this response too (and so were abandoned) - is this something that will likely affect some coronavirus vaccine candidates, do you think?

@IloveJKRowling

If ADE is a feature of Covid19 infection then it will almost certainly apply to vaccines. Sir John Bell said today that he thought vaccines would provide temporary immunity.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53488142

If ADE is a feature, they may harm some or many people.

Basic summary of ADE
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement

More in-depth as it applies to COVID-19
www.nature.com/articles/s41587-020-0577-1

PMSL at 'scaremongering', JRob.

Science (and medicine) isn't about picking what you want to hear then looking for anything that supports that. Nor about looking for 'good news' and decrying anything negative as scaremongering.

I've explained before but broadly, the reason why I prefer excess aggregate mortality in the UK for the period from around mid-March to Mid-June as a proxy for COVID mortality is due to the UK's testing policy (and general incompetence).

We were puzzled back in the day by the increased number of patients who 'spontaneously' died in the community and never got near a COVID test. Subsequently, we saw the reports of COVID causing deaths through a range of different routes (and no, these weren't patients likely to die in the next few weeks nor patients with cancer not receiving treatment due to NHS incompetence). These weren't the patients who were admitted, got tested then went to ITU and died but, to us, were COVID related.

We saw numbers of patients dying far in excess of 'averaged out Government COVID death rates, especially given those were focused on hospital deaths and, to some extent, ignored deaths in the community. And no, there weren't an increase in deaths from suicide here due to lockdown. In fact, during lockdown, our suicide numbers were down though the long term effects of COVID and lock down remains to be seen.

Excess mortality felt a good proxy for COVID as when we looked at the figures, other causes of death were reduced. Lockdown reduced RTA and accidents so we'd expect lockdown to have reduced mortality, not to have increased mortality over three months by c65000.

If you think this is scaremongering, why do you think the UK had 65,000 excess deaths between March and June? Did scaremongers make them die spontaneously?

medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-excess-deaths-uk-figures.html

All those deaths were due to the NHS not treating patients, don't you know - despite clear evidence that it did go on treating other patients. Oh and they also ignore all the evidence that Covid-19 triggers blood clots - so those extra "heart attacks" and "strokes" were not because they were scared to go to hospital or the NHS didnt treat them - it's because Covid-19 triggered heart attacks and strokes in people who wouldnt have had them otherwise. And people with heart attacks and strokes sometimes just die before anyone can get to them, never mind try and treat them.

And the excess "Alzheimers" deaths - people with a gene that predisposes to Alzheimers are also more likely to get severe Covid-19. Quite a few deaths that were probably directly due to Covid-19 being wrongly attributed to other causes.

@ClimbDad

Thank you.

alreadytaken, I agree though be careful, you don't want to be called a scaremonger too.

@ClimbDad, can I ask about ADE too?

If ADE is involved like with dengue fever, then does it mean that:

• second wave might be more létal if people who got Covid this time (Incl asymtomatic) will get a ‘worse’ version of it
• apart from a possible treatment , we basically strongly rely on innate immunity to kill the virus BEFORE ADE comes into play?

@etopp

I thought lockdown was a monstrous error because I thought the casualties of lockdown (in terms of mental health, as well as actual deaths from causes other than Covid) would outweigh the casualties of Covid.

Apologies for misunderstanding your position, but whereas I could understand this concern prior to lockdown - when the outcome was unknown - I’m not sure why you continue to hold it now. There’s no evidence of a massive surge in non-Covid deaths due to the lockdown that remotely comparable the Covid deaths that have occurred.

I recognise there will have been some health-related deaths that will likely have occurred that arguably wouldn’t have done at another time, but that would have been due to the NHS focussing on tackling Covid rather than lockdown itself.

Indeed, if we hadn’t have locked down, that would have put the NHS under even more pressure than it already was under (and as the rate of infection was doubling every few days, that would have escalated very fast), meaning it would have had even less resource to devote to non-Covid care. If we hadn’t have locked down, it’s hard to see how non-Covid healthcare wouldn’t have taken an even harder, probably far harder hit, than it has done.

My 30 year old neighbour was in a coma for 5 weeks with COVID. It's a miracle he survived. He had no underlying health conditions and wasn't overweight. There's now evidence to suggest that many COVID sufferers have long-term damage to lungs.

We're lucky only a small section of the population has been exposed to this virus because it's brutal.

You feel duped??? Have you actually seen the number of deaths? Have you seen the illness in those people who have suffered? A huge number of these wouldn't have happened.

All of the scaremongering posters seem to have gradually realised this too! Thank goodness.

We need to get back to normal, get children back to schools and try and get set for the economic fallout plus genuine health crisis of cancelled routine healthcare ASAP

The furlough scheme definitely hasn't helped, plus the teachers on full pay at home!! No wonder some don't want to go back to normal.

The health anxiety this has caused in many though is worrying.

Although this could be affected in future by a vaccine and treatments - and every month that we get closer to that is one step closer - I think the 'flatten the curve' strategy was to try to lower the numbers of infections happening at once. It wasn't to lower the overall number of cases; I think that still remains to be seen, because this point now is just the end of the beginning.

Regarding the stages at which the tests show a positive, in China in the early days of the tests, I believe they tested 3 times over a period of 3 weeks (also when people were very symptomatic) as the proper definition of "a" test. Family and pets strictly isolated during this time. These sometimes only showed positive on the 2nd or 3rd round.

We're lucky only a small section of the population has been exposed to this virus because it's brutal.

We don't know that only a small section of society has been exposed.

The furlough scheme definitely hasn't helped, plus the teachers on full pay at home!! No wonder some don't want to go back to normal.
Here we go.

We don't know that only a small section of society has been exposed.

The evidence clearly suggests that only a small section have been exposed. In some particularly badly hit NYC neighbourhoods 50-60%+ of people have antibodies - and the deaths in those areas are consistent with the 250-500,000 estimates for the UK back in March had we let it “rip through”. Perhaps not everyone does generate antibodies when infected, but it seems most do (even assuming 100% of people in those neighbourhoods had been infected, which is unlikely.). Antibody levels in the U.K. are way below that, at around 7% I believe.., far lower in part of the country like the South West that have been less affected.