BBC News Winter Wave - anyone else read this and feel really depressed?

[BabyLlamaZen]

BBC News - Winter wave of coronavirus 'could be worse

We all knew this is likely, but having the scientists actually make those predictions is pretty depressing :( I got through first lockdown with some big anxiety at the start but then just put my head down appreciating our house and garden (we are the lucky ones!) Dh working from home, me busy with ds on maternity leave.

With restrictions easing it's been nice to visit the parents again, see mil as part of her help with our bubble and care for ds. We've even seen a couple of friends on distanced walks. We're not going to any restaurants or anything.

And then to think it'll go back to how it was in April but even worse. Lockdown may not be as severe in order to try and save jobs. I also think people are desensitized the second time around. They think sd is enough so wont keep careful. I worry for our vulnerable, my keyworker friends and even how I'm going to entertain my increasingly mobile and needy ds.

Mental health will take another bashing. I'm a planner so need things in the diary to accomplish and keep me going. Arghh. Anyone else?

Also to any other peppers put there (I always prep as REFUSE to be a panic buyer) what are you doing?

*preppers

@BabyLlamaZen

Also to any other peppers put there (I always prep as REFUSE to be a panic buyer) what are you doing?

Just prepping all over again. It took more than a year to slowly overfill the larder last time, so have already started again.

Hopefully lots more will this time around and therefore panic buying will be avoided.

I feel like there's no end to it
Feel so depressed with everything you read

I tried to see the good side last time with more time at home with dh and ds, sorting out the garden a bit. I dont know what I'll do this time.

I suppose I'll get into autumn and Christmas baking. Ds will turn 1. He's going to have no idea about people!

Yes will gradually prep now, but more for Brexit than a possible second wave.

I'm keeping the pantry well stocked in preparation, ordering loo rolls with every other shop, building up toiletries etc. I prepped for brexit and am so grateful for that as it kept us going when we couldn't get deliveries in March and April.
I'm feeling anxious and upset at the thought of another year of this. I'm shielded and haven't been anywhere except a short walk since March 13th. I know that technically I can go to the shops now but my experience when out walking is a total disregard for distance so I'm staying in.

My mental health was 'ok' as soon as schools closed. The two weeks before that happened were some of the worst two weeks of my teaching career.

But i'm a prepper. We had 3 months worth of food in the house, and I'd been bringing resources home from school for weeks (mostly to keep my child entertained), we bought a trampoline, a paddling pool, a swingball, loads of printer ink, plenty of glue and so on. When we closed and I knew I could just keep my little family safe and occupied, I was alright.

This time they won't shut schools on mass, no chance. So... deal with partner is that if it's all too stressful by October, I leave at Christmas.

I'm prepping again.

Trying not to think about it too much here. We've totally followed guidelines and actually kept well within them. Not much more we can do.

I did prep originally and have basically kept most of my cupboard storage items aside, sometimes replacing them with more recent dates. I didn't want to be in a position of having to self isolate with no provisions. As a family we do go on long walks and cycle but it's not so appealing on a cold winters day or when the footpaths are wet and muddy. How many of us will want to sit in the garden when it's 5c with a friend for coffee. It's going to be harder from a psychological point of view. Still we keep going.

I think it's a disgrace that the BBC are putting stuff like that out. If you go on to read the article it says that they are not saying it will happen, just that it could - think worse case scenario. It is scaremongering at its highest and appalling but not unexpected from the BBC - the Daily Mail of on screen media.

I'm not worried. No point worrying about something that hasn't even happened yet.

I'm vulnerable, so this really worries me. I'm not afraid of being in lockdown per se, but the thought that other people I have to come in contact with are not taking basic and necessary precautions scares me a lot.

That people are already arguing against basic precautions like wearing masks, makes me think that a second wave is inevitable. I also wonder how many of those people are following the other precautions like hand washing or social distancing? We can stop it by behaving sensibly now. But I suspect we won't.

@MinesaPinot

I think it's a disgrace that the BBC are putting stuff like that out. If you go on to read the article it says that they are not saying it will happen, just that it could - think worse case scenario. It is scaremongering at its highest and appalling but not unexpected from the BBC - the Daily Mail of on screen media.

I agree. The article even says change the parameters on the model and can get it to say anything!

MinesaPinot, it isn't scaremongering, it's making possible predictions, so we can prepare and future plan.

This time the government will have no excuses. We can't just throw our key workers under the bus.

Not scaremongering at all. It is a study commissioned by Sir Patrick Vallance (on the government's side on podiums and part of SAGE etc).
It is logical that a second wave in autumn/winter will be worse due to cold (coronavirus thrives at 4 degrees celsius and below). It is proper science. Also not just BBC (unofficial government TV service during this virus) but also the Economist, Guardian - other serious news sources.

New Scientist:
www.newscientist.com/article/2248691-a-bad-uk-winter-could-cause-120000-covid-19-deaths-in-hospitals/

It's all bollocks. Based on the same models that made an error with numbers right at the beginning of this.

Let's just wait and see.

That article is more balanced than the BBC one @neutralintelligence

"If measures successfully limited the R number to 1.1, the outcome would be very different, say the researchers. Infections could be expected to rise slightly over the winter period and would result in an estimated 1,300 hospital deaths between September 2020 and June 2021"

I would need to listen again to be sure but I think I heard the scientist on the radio this morning stressing that they'd been asked to model the worst case scenario and she wasn't saying that 120000 deaths was a likely situation.

In terms of prepping I feel better prepared now. I have a few local wholesalers who have opened up to the public, plus click and collect seems much more available now than it was before. I have built supplies back up a few tins at a time. I know where the gaps were in my planning last time and we have tried to fill them.

It's important to differentiate - this is not a prediction, not a "we think this will happen."

This is a model, based on a worst case scenario of what could happen; the worst case being based on no treatment, no vaccine, no preparation and no lockdown. So if we do nothing from here - carry on with no mitigation.

That's not going to happen, given where we are.

It's an alarm call to Govt to make sure we continue with preparations for winter, social distancing, (it also recommends masks indoors, which I suspect influenced today's announcement). It makes a number of other recommendations. It's actually quite an interesting read if anyone has the time!

It is depressing to hear, it was worst case scenario but not that much to glow about that. About half with various things in place.

I just don’t want another lockdown. The economy is on the edge as it is.

I read it, and being cynical, thought it was that report being released that prompted the government's announcement that face mask wearing in shops is to be compulsory.

It is the very worst scenario and may never get this bad. But we have more infections in winter. So there may be a rise in numbers. We won't know until we're there.

But I'm making sure we have enough tinned goods in the store cupboard and loo rolls etc. Refuse to panic buy but just want to be sure we're going to be ok if things do get bad again. And also, being aware that Brexit may lead to some shortages.

I'd hate to see that crazy panic buying phase come back, when there was empty shelves everywhere. Just little and often. A couple of extra tins etc in each shop.

Yes, it is worst case scenario, but there were other figures for a better case scenario that also point to a second wave of lower proportions. This study also did not include deaths in care homes or in the community, and since care home deaths were significant in this first wave, then the study could also be said to be underestimating deaths to some extent. Unfortunately there was a trade-off in the first wave of ITU beds versus care home beds and if care homes were better protected this time that might means fewer beds available inside hospitals (although we do have Nightingale hospitals ready to put into action at short notice now). It is a worrying study and worth taking seriously, especially with 530-ish new cases yesterday and the number of new infections each day now apparently rising, indicating a growing R-rate.

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