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Original poster

Are the USA really doing that bad?

107 replies

Forgone90 · 13/07/2020 20:23

Now this is compared to the uk, not in general. People are going crazy currently with 60-70k new cases a day in the states.

However (and I'm happy for people to tell me my maths is shit etc) when we look back to June the 20th in the uk there was said to be an antibody positivity rate of about 6.8% with a 95% certainty of this.

That's 4.6 million of the population that have caught the disease between January 29th and June 20th (142 days). That is a crazy average of over 35,000 cases a day.

With that being the average, during our peak infection its likely our cases were anywhere between 60-100k cases a day. That's with our population of 66million. I wouldn't want to imagine how many cases and deaths we would have had if our population was 5x bigger like the USA. The simple maths says that our average cases would be 175k cases a day which is terrifying.

My point being tho that it doesn't really seem they are doing any worse than we were and most likely slightly better in terms of cases and much better in terms of death rates.

The most alarming thing out of this is that our reported highest daily cases was under 10,000 when it seems the average daily number of actual cases based on antibody figures was more than triple that number.

OP posts:
LaurieFairyCake · 13/07/2020 20:24

No.

They're doing great. So great. It's the bestest ever great there's been. Don't listen to the fake news. Buy a gun.

Northernsoullover · 13/07/2020 20:25

Laurie Grin

rhowton · 13/07/2020 20:26

@LaurieFairyCake just LOLed and choked on my drink

rhowton · 13/07/2020 20:26

@LaurieFairyCake just LOLed and choked on my drink

Original poster
Forgone90 · 13/07/2020 20:31

Again my point isn't that they are doing well, obviously they are not. but that we were actually worse just hid it well with our case numbers

OP posts:
KitchenConfidential · 13/07/2020 20:36

Well cities in Florida have run out of morgue space and are having to request refrigerated trucks... in Louisiana, if you need a test, they have normally run out before 9.30am so the positive numbers aren’t exactly useful to go by.... so make of that what you will.

Original poster
Forgone90 · 13/07/2020 20:41

@KitchenConfidential again maybe I should have changed the name of the post... This is more of a post to suggest that the uk has done alot worse than it currently seems (not that it seems like we did well anyway) Not about the USA doing welk

OP posts:
KitchenConfidential · 13/07/2020 20:44

In that case OP, yes the UK has done hideously badly. And I thought everyone knew it!

There’s quite a good article here you might like.

time.com/5861697/us-uk-failed-coronavirus-response/

lljkk · 13/07/2020 20:49

In Texas, where they have a lot of guns, a Republican governor and love a good conspiracy theory, the governor has mandated facemasks.
Texas

Even Trump is now being pictured with mask on.
I think there's a dawning realisation that it's a shitshow, yes.

Republican Party convention is scheduled in Florida on 24-27 August. Now that should be fun....

Original poster
Forgone90 · 13/07/2020 20:52

I know as a country the uk hadn't done great but I didn't realise it was that bad... Quite ashamed now to be honest

OP posts:
thefruityelf · 13/07/2020 20:53

The UK and the US have managed this appallingly. But I would say they are doing worse that we are.

Derbygerbil · 13/07/2020 20:56

Again my point isn't that they are doing well, obviously they are not. but that we were actually worse just hid it well with our case numbers

The U.K. fared worse than the USA as a whole, but better than New York and the tri-state area which was horrific. They’ve responded by taking it seriously. The public in the states that weren’t so badly affected never really treated it seriously it seems and are now paying the price....

Waxonwaxoff0 · 13/07/2020 20:57

It's hard to compare the UK with the US. The US is more like lots of little countries rather than one big countries. We have both done badly but our cases are plateauing whereas in many US states cases are rising quickly. In Florida for instance they are recording thousands and thousands of new cases daily.

I think the worst is to come for the US.

CaptainMerica · 13/07/2020 20:57

Yes, the UK massively under reported the number of cases due to insufficient testing. However, the US is doing exactly the same. If they were doing enough testing, the % of cases which come back positive would be lower. So however bad it looks, it is actually much worst.

HarveySchlumpfenburger · 13/07/2020 20:59

I don’t know if you can treat the US as one entity. There are big differences between states in terms of infection levels and what laws are in place to control the infection. Some states are doing a lot better than others. Depends a lot on how far the state governors are prepared to go to ignore the White House, I guess.

endofthelinefinally · 13/07/2020 21:04

I was in SE Asia in February.
I would have been safer staying there tbh.
The UK has done everything wrong. The US could have learned from Europe, but chose not to. It is awful.

Notfeelinggreattoday · 13/07/2020 21:07

Where dud you get 4 million have had it ? Ive not read anything like that

Notfeelinggreattoday · 13/07/2020 21:07

Where dud you get 4 million have had it ? Ive not read anything like that

Notfeelinggreattoday · 13/07/2020 21:07

Where dud you get 4 million have had it ? Ive not read anything like that

Thewiseoneincognito · 13/07/2020 21:11

California is closing all bars and indoor restaurants again as the numbers have started rising again. We’ll be in the same situation in a few weeks time watch this space. Autumn will be interesting...

Original poster
Forgone90 · 13/07/2020 21:21

@Notfeelinggreattoday the Ons antibody study showed a positivity rate of between 5-8.5%with an average of 6.8% with a 95% certainty. That works out to 4.6 million

OP posts:
Notfeelinggreattoday · 13/07/2020 21:27

Well if thats the case then we wont know for sure how many cases many countries will of had as testing rates are different plus of asymptomatic many wouldnt have a test
If 4.5 million have had it and potentially more maybe then that would at mean the death rate percentage is less
I think people are looking at certain areas of US being particurly bad ig you look at certain states and compare with countries of similar size numbers are rather than the country as a whole as some areas are affected badly and others not so much

Redcups64 · 13/07/2020 21:32

I understand what your saying OP.

Both the U.K. and USA are just totally disastrous in how we’ve handled the virus compared to other countries. To be honest we are lucky our home is small compared to USA otherwise it would all go on even longer with more people for the virus to pass too

Original poster
Forgone90 · 13/07/2020 21:33

Oh that is definitely the case, which is why it's silly when people try and work the death rate out from the reported cases. That's why they believe the death rate is still between 0.3-0.7% ass opposed to 3-10%

OP posts:
annabel85 · 13/07/2020 21:34

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

I don’t know if you can treat the US as one entity. There are big differences between states in terms of infection levels and what laws are in place to control the infection. Some states are doing a lot better than others. Depends a lot on how far the state governors are prepared to go to ignore the White House, I guess.
UK isn't one entity either.