Are the USA really doing that bad?

[Forgone90]

Now this is compared to the uk, not in general. People are going crazy currently with 60-70k new cases a day in the states.

However (and I'm happy for people to tell me my maths is shit etc) when we look back to June the 20th in the uk there was said to be an antibody positivity rate of about 6.8% with a 95% certainty of this.

That's 4.6 million of the population that have caught the disease between January 29th and June 20th (142 days). That is a crazy average of over 35,000 cases a day.

With that being the average, during our peak infection its likely our cases were anywhere between 60-100k cases a day. That's with our population of 66million. I wouldn't want to imagine how many cases and deaths we would have had if our population was 5x bigger like the USA. The simple maths says that our average cases would be 175k cases a day which is terrifying.

My point being tho that it doesn't really seem they are doing any worse than we were and most likely slightly better in terms of cases and much better in terms of death rates.

The most alarming thing out of this is that our reported highest daily cases was under 10,000 when it seems the average daily number of actual cases based on antibody figures was more than triple that number.

Yes I’m not saying those timelines are for SARS-Cov-2 - we don’t yet know. But they are based on known endemic coronaviruses, to which it’s well known we have no lasting immunity www.columbia.edu/~jls106/galanti_shaman_ms_supp.pdf
We don’t have data on SARS & MERS although I think animal testing of the SARS vaccine showed ADE - I would need to check but almost out of battery

Bombshell Report: Herd Immunity Reached at 20% - Kim Iversen

thanks for explaining Mac I don't have a link to back this up but I read on a scientific paper that there is some positive correlation between symptom severity in these coronavirus and the length and degree of immunity going forward
So it could be the case that because colds are mostly mild the immune response is lower but with a coronavirus that provokes severe symptoms immunity is more powerful and long-lasting.

thanks for the video Reslp, this is from the scientific reports on which Kim's video is based:
'These papers are really helpful because they start to define the T cell component of the immune response,” Rasmussen says. But she and other scientists caution that the results do not mean that people who have recovered from COVID-19 are protected from reinfection'

Imo the video is disingenuous/focusing on a moot point...they are talking about herd immunity ie what level of immunity would be required for a situation of 'herd immunity' to be achieved, whilst at the same time acknowledging that we do not know if infection results in long-lasting immunity

this is a complex issue, not enough is known about the science and even if it were many people do not have sufficient graph of scientific concepts to process the information fully.... it's too easy to pull the wool over eyes and confuse us☹️

Be careful with the Oxford paper. I’d take it with a pinch of salt for now. I think it’s from the same team that previously modelled the U.K. had reached 50% immunity and turned out to be very wrong.

I suspect that like everywhere else, if you looked closely at the outbreak areas rather than large geographical areas as a whole you’ll find the virus still circulating within communities where the immunity is much higher than. 20%. Parts of Italy would probably be a good example.

Five strange moments from Trump's Fox News interview - Guardian News