Are the USA really doing that bad?

[Forgone90]

Now this is compared to the uk, not in general. People are going crazy currently with 60-70k new cases a day in the states.

However (and I'm happy for people to tell me my maths is shit etc) when we look back to June the 20th in the uk there was said to be an antibody positivity rate of about 6.8% with a 95% certainty of this.

That's 4.6 million of the population that have caught the disease between January 29th and June 20th (142 days). That is a crazy average of over 35,000 cases a day.

With that being the average, during our peak infection its likely our cases were anywhere between 60-100k cases a day. That's with our population of 66million. I wouldn't want to imagine how many cases and deaths we would have had if our population was 5x bigger like the USA. The simple maths says that our average cases would be 175k cases a day which is terrifying.

My point being tho that it doesn't really seem they are doing any worse than we were and most likely slightly better in terms of cases and much better in terms of death rates.

The most alarming thing out of this is that our reported highest daily cases was under 10,000 when it seems the average daily number of actual cases based on antibody figures was more than triple that number.

I live in the US and feel completely out of touch. I thought, based on what I was hearing that we had the worst situation anywhere. I finally, for the first time in two months, looked at the statistics and was surprised. WorldofMeters shows just 15K serious cases in the US? And Sweden’s death rates are worse than ours? I don’t know if it’s even correct.

I guess that it’s hard to tell what’s really happening. I know of no one who has the virus, and only one person who knows someone with it.

I’m staying home, following the rules while people I know are traveling to other states, taking vacations, sailing sailboats and going to beach rentals. They complain that everyone doesn’t wear a mask in public but they are just doing whatever they like. I had a friend who got quarantined due to travel to a highly infected state. He’s currently on vacation again, this time visiting wineries!

I’m most worried about lower income people here. And especially single parents who are told they must come back to work while their child care options are extremely limited. I’m worried about seniors who are alone.

I’m not so worried about myself, my friends and family.

I wish we had leaders that were more interested in our country’s well-being than ripping each other apart. Our options for November terrify me.

Deaths adjusted for population (per million). The USA is below France and Sweden. Belgium is the highest

...should add to my above post. The numbers are about a week ago

The shit is currently hitting the fan in several US states, especially Florida, Texas and California.

In the most populous states, the ones affected first, the infection and death rates are coming down. NY for example recorded no deaths, I think it was yesterday or the day before.

I think it's the travel hubs and dense populations that have caused the high numbers in some places. Bergamo/Lombardy in northern Italy for example has a major airport/s. England is densely populated and is also a very busy international travel hub. New York also. Belgium is right in the middle of everything and densely populated and has the highest death rates per capita anywhere

You have to look at per capita adjustments, it's pointless comparing countries with wildly different populations unless you do

The situation with comparing death rates is that those countries (including the UK) have already peaked. The US haven't peaked yet, so who knows what their death rate will be. Miami is actually the global epicentre at the moment. Having said that, a few states are over the worst now, most notably New York.

[quote Forgone90]@worstwitch18 I was only using that as in the uk you can only get a Test if you have symptoms, whereas in the US anybody can go and get a Test if they want one. So would guess the US would have picked up many more non symptomatic cases than we have.[/quote]
Testing on demand is very new in the U.K. and wasn’t available here at the point the spread of the virus is in the US

Sorry Flaxmeadow, crossposted with you. I think you're right about travelhubs and densely populated cities being hit hard.

The US haven't peaked yet, so who knows what their death rate will be

It has peaked though, in the sense that the most populated areas have peaked. You have to look at what the populations are per capita.

Comparing state by state, without adjusting, is like comparing countries in Europe without adjusting, the UK (68 million) with Belgium (11 million). But Belgium adjusted is worse than the UK. Though the UK isn't far behind

Sorry Flaxmeadow, crossposted with you. I think you're right about travelhubs and densely populated cities being hit hard.

Yes and I think it's a bit unfair the blame some countries or governments get online and in the media, when it wasn't as easy to control in certain places rather than others

A better picture than the one I just posted, and I think more up to date.. Deaths adjusted per million. Highest first

@Flaxmeadow

The US haven't peaked yet, so who knows what their death rate will be

It has peaked though, in the sense that the most populated areas have peaked. You have to look at what the populations are per capita.

Comparing state by state, without adjusting, is like comparing countries in Europe without adjusting, the UK (68 million) with Belgium (11 million). But Belgium adjusted is worse than the UK. Though the UK isn't far behind

So if it's peaked why is Florida posting record numbers? Why are numbers increasing in 40 states?

So if it's peaked why is Florida posting record numbers? Why are numbers increasing in 40 states

Because, as I already said, it's peaked and is declining in the most populous states.

Not all the USA states have the same populations or population density

Floridas numbers have actually started to decline in the last few days.

What do you mean by 'record numbers'?

It's record number of cases each day (for example in FLA) not deaths, isn't it?

@ResIpsaLoquiturInterAlia Following on your your healthcare post- 5.4 million Americans have lost their healthcare provision during this pandemic, due to the loss of their job. Staggering.

Yesterday US posted their second highest daily peak of cases, but it was Monday, so likely not true picture after the weekend. It hasn't peaked yet.
If Miami is now the epicentre, how can fla have peaked?

@KrakowDawn

Since the orange man "took charge" I am never shocked by anything stateside anymore. I sadly only expect the unexpected as the USA seems from the outside media to be imploding from within with each state doing its own thing. Many states somehow literally getting away with murder. What a mess for a once proud and important nation. I never would have guessed the American I once spent so many delightful and fond memories would end up as a complete shit show with demographic issues and fights and infighting as norm.

One thing critical about the American healthcare situation is that without it unlike here in UK you basically have no access to medical care as no safety net other than retaining your job. How are the millions now seeking employment and fulfilment (without family trust funds etc) going to survive? It's brutal to be poor anywhere but in the USA that is possibly even worst than most without an income stream as cost of living is relatively expensive plus it's a major hub of consumerism and trade.

So fortunate in the UK healthcare is all inclusive and paid for by the working tax payers. This does lead to complacency and an element of the free entitlement class that have not added to society but receive "free" housing, education and healthcare. What these people do not understand is that nothing is free as someone is paying for it if not you. That may be crude and rude but factually accurate.

Not having a go at free riders as Mums Net is ultra sensitive and seemingly a place for some with all sorts of issues medical and social (from my brief time on these UK forum community).

I wish America well and yes you guys need to get someone who cares and leads and not seemingly running it to the ground. I gathered despite the accuracy of Covid fatalities auditing some individual states will themselves lead the global Covid fatalities count?

And finally the only major Covid commonality on sides of the pond is the public ignorance and avoidance of using PPE and relaxed Covid mitigation attitude hence the off the charts Covid numbers in both nations. The face covering debate is ongoing in England despite 50k Covid deaths and the whole world wearing face masks or face shield PPE etc! Mind boggles!

Stay safe and listen to Dr Fauci not the political incompetence mob!

@Flaxmeadow

Because, as I already said, it's peaked and is declining in the most populous states.

???

The three most populous US states are California, Texas and Florida.... all of which have seen the virus surge in the past few weeks.

The US did reach a peak in the spring from which there was a fall, but that wasn’t necessarily “the peak”, just a peak concentrated heavily in the north-eastern states.

@Flaxmeadow

Floridas numbers have actually started to decline in the last few days.

What on earth?!

Florida posted record numbers of Sunday, and sharply rising 7 day average.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

I think the crucial thing is to look at the US data on a state-by-state level.

Some states - the sparsely populated ones a long way from the huge megacities with global transport links - are doing okay. Some are doing terribly.

This interactive page of CDC data is very helpful in visualising this.
91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?fbclid=IwAR30qEvzq11I78qY5WyPOXUOtjUmZdzQL3d-k9gtDLrG6SMyl5EwD0lWmmU

Third graph down is worldwide data per million of population.
Fourth graph down is US data per million of population by state.

Take cumulative deaths per million people as a comparator (you can have a look at case rates, mortality rates, current death rates, etc. by using the tags).

On the country comparisons, Belgium is worst, with 848.8 deaths per million. The UK is in second place with 674.8 deaths per million people. The USA as a whole is "only" on 411.6 deaths per million.

However, four US states have total deaths per million above Belgium - in fact all four are over 1000 cases per million, with New Jersey topping the table at 1751.8 per million, more than double that of Belgium.

Bottom line - the densely populated states with a lot of international transport hubs have been hit disastrously badly. (That sort of death rate - over 0.1% of the whole population, not case fatality rate - also explains why it's quite plausible to believe New York, second on the list, really has reached the herd immunity level of 70%).

@DianasLasso

That’s really helpful.

One thing I think people don’t quite get is that it just didn’t reach all states at the same time.

My family lives 500 miles from me a different State. They’ve been living under restrictions since March, like we have in my State.

But their State is just now getting more cases. Before now, they just had a handful. It’s not a huge surprise really.

Here's a big UK compared to USA difference as apparently when the dust finally settles their will be an independent (possibly secretly fixed) inquiry on the UK government's Covid (mis)management. While over in the USA the orange one is smarter than Dr Fauci (what do doctors and scientists know!) as he prefers to antagonise other political leaders and take random dangerous drugs, bleach with sunshine treatment hence the glowing orange skin tone!

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-boris-johnson-pledges-independent-inquiry-into-governments-pandemic-handling-but-not-yet-12029025

Coronavirus: Boris Johnson pledges independent inquiry into government's pandemic handling - but not yet

There are already several ongoing congressional investigations into handling of covid.

perhaps it would be helpful to view the US as 52 sub-countries grouped together?

What these people do not understand is that nothing is free as someone is paying for it if not you
the other side of that equation (imo) is that many people perform work for which they receive no pay...people without jobs who are seen as undeserving of 'free stuff' perform all sorts of roles which are socially useful, just because you dont have a job doesnt mean you dont contribute to society.
And of those who do have jobs, just because they get paid a lot doesnt mean that what they do benefits society.
(excuse me for going so far off topic)

There are so many factors to look at such as living and social patterns, health and age of the nation, accuracy and availability of tests. The UK knows it locked down far too late, medically unprepared and advice was poor, early intervention is now key. It was cold and damp, indoor living was the norm and the public we're being stupid over shopping all cramming into shops to buy toilet rolls 🤦. The NHS means reporting figures are a bit more stable, it also means treatment is readily available. We also have recorded every person who died that had covid. Not everyone who dies due to covid, these are two very different things. We also cleared hospitals of old people, not tested them and put them into Care Homes. The government deny this, I know this happened as does everyone else who worked in the areas affected.

USA is a whole different issue! States are small countries, health care comes at a cost and the benefit system and low wages means people are forced to work at times of high risk.

The USA is still seeing the first wave it will get worse, numbers won't be accurate and people will have the virus and be dying from it, it'll just be marked down as old age or existing health conditions because of cost and availability of proper medical care (it's not easy to access in the USA unless you have good insurance).

The jail's and prisons in USA doesn't bare thinking about. Sadly the inmates will be left to get on with it. There will be no records or treatments, their death certs will not mention covid and because they are all privately run by companies no company will admit failings.

USA is a whole different issue! States are small countries, health care comes at a cost and the benefit system and low wages means people are forced to work at times of high risk.

Right now it's actually very difficult to hire people in the US because those on unemployment benefit are getting so much in assistance. Pandemic Unemployment Assistance ($600 per week) added onto their regular state unemployment insurance (average around $250 a week) means that it's not worth them actually working, given that they're earning over $40k a year for doing nothing.

The USA is still seeing the first wave it will get worse, numbers won't be accurate and people will have the virus and be dying from it, it'll just be marked down as old age or existing health conditions because of cost and availability of proper medical care (it's not easy to access in the USA unless you have good insurance).

Care for Covid is being covered by the federal government under the CARES Act, whether or not people have health insurance. Deaths due to Covid are not being marked down as being due to old age or existing health conditions - where are you getting this from?

The jail's and prisons in USA doesn't bare thinking about. Sadly the inmates will be left to get on with it. There will be no records or treatments, their death certs will not mention covid and because they are all privately run by companies no company will admit failings.

I'm also interested to know where you're getting this info from? The news stories I've read about jails and prisons have consistently talked about isolating and treating prisoners who test positive. In what sense are they being 'left to get on with it'? Where did you get the info that their death certs will not mention Covid? There have been many outbreaks in prisons, that have been well publicised, so I'm not sure why you're saying there are no records or treatments.