high cases in the US may be a good thing ........ despite the hysteria

[ACautionaryTale]

The US has been having ever rising cases every day. 40-50K a day for the last week or so but even before that, 30K+

Yet, the deaths are lower - very low as a % in fact.

One theory is that those who are vulnerable are avoiding the hotspots and avoiding catching it.

If this continues, then it goes to show what many have been saying for a long time... if you are not in a vulnerable group, the death rate is no worse than flu.

Which does back up what I and I know many people have said all along - shield the vulnerable and let the rest get herd immunity by catching it.

I meant to add- if this is right, the US will be out the other side of this long before anyone else.

One issue with this is that they don't know how long immunity lasts if you have the antibodies.
They don't know if you can catch it again.
There are so many unknowns.

"If this continues, then it goes to show what many have been saying for a long time... if you are not in a vulnerable group, the death rate is no worse than flu."

This is true. For under 65s and especially under 40s the death rate is in line with flu. Its lower than flu for under 10s (yes i do care about the over 65s, yes I know there are long term effects before someone jumps down my throat).

There's a twitter thread about this that basically says in part it comes down to more testing of the young while the old continue to do shielding behaviours.

Not sure what you mean.

Firstly, there’s no point speaking of the death rate in the US when different states are faring very differently.

Secondly the medical situation in some states is dire. Mayors of Texas are saying that hospitals there will be overwhelmed in 10 days. That’s their surge capacity. They exceeded base capacity a week ago.

It’s true that the ages of those contracting the virus are much much younger (although you hope they won’t pass it on to their grandparents). But people in their 40s and 50s still need hospitalization and that’s the problem.

I do think there is something to be said for this as a theory. We can’t close the world down forever. As a healthy 40 year old I’m willing to take my own personal chances, still maintaining some social distancing and happy to wear a mask, but other than that I would like to be able to get on with life. I imagine a lot of people feel the same.

I do just want to add that Donald is doing the absolute shittest job possible as Potus leading through this though. Just support mask wearing you utter fool.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the death rate in the US over the next few weeks as I think the lag can be 3-5 weeks from case to death to reporting. Fingers crossed....

@Jrobhatch29

"If this continues, then it goes to show what many have been saying for a long time... if you are not in a vulnerable group, the death rate is no worse than flu."

This is true. For under 65s and especially under 40s the death rate is in line with flu. Its lower than flu for under 10s (yes i do care about the over 65s, yes I know there are long term effects before someone jumps down my throat).

8% of those in their 50s need hospitalization.

As Texas is finding out now, that’s precisely the problem, not just the risk of death.

What about the long term effects? I wouldn’t be so blasé with my long term health, or with other people’s. Too many unknowns to go with ‘fill your boots’ as an approach.

How can you shield the vulnerable if they need to take the bus to go to their hospital appointments?

Its too early to call it yet. The lead time between getting infected and needing hospital treatment is getting longer as earlier in the year many people werent getting tested until they were feeling very sick, now many people are getting tested as soon as they have a bit of a headache or they hear a friend has tested positive. Lets see what happens in another 2~3 weeks.

Having said that, I do agree with your idea that the route through this might be to shield the vulnerable and let it run through the rest of the population.

@SeaToSki

Its too early to call it yet. The lead time between getting infected and needing hospital treatment is getting longer as earlier in the year many people werent getting tested until they were feeling very sick, now many people are getting tested as soon as they have a bit of a headache or they hear a friend has tested positive. Lets see what happens in another 2~3 weeks.

Having said that, I do agree with your idea that the route through this might be to shield the vulnerable and let it run through the rest of the population.

What should be done about hospitalizations then? I assume anyone under 60 and the non-vulnerable shouldn’t be admitted to hospital with covid? That figure is very significant.

8% of those in their 50s need hospitalization.

As Texas is finding out now, that’s precisely the problem, not just the risk of death

I was responding to the the OPs point about death rate with a follow up comment about death rate. We can discuss death rate still you know as a point on its own without yeah but long term effects/hospitalisations!

As a side note 8% of people in their 50s with CONFIRMED cases need hospital treatment. It is not 8% of everyone in their 50s who gets covid. Overall UK hospitalisation rate for all ages is about 3%

I'm not worried about dying. I'm worried about catching it and being ill for months on end, followed by lifelong complications.

If you think the economy's in bad shape now, imagine if a chunk of the workforce was off sick long-term and was then less able than before with huge health costs.

Herd immunity is not achievable without a vaccine. Also unethical and immoral, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths..

Deaths for under-60s are small provided those who ned hospital treatment can do so without rationing

e.g. Germany hospitalised about 18% of cases, 2% in ICU, regular home visits for the "mildly" ill
Early and unrationed treatment is key.

Only 36 people under 40 died in Germany out of a population of 83 million
Most of the other 9,000 were agd 70+

But catching Coroavirus even mildly risks leaving you with life long health problems.
Think a 'mild' case of Covid-19 doesn’t sound so bad? Think again
Otherwise healthy people who thought they had recovered from coronavirus are reporting persistent and strange symptoms - including strokes.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/06/coronavirus-covid-19-mild-symptoms-who

"the deaths are lower - very low as a % in fact"

US death rate / million population is about ⅔ that of the UK - and the USA cases are rising

UK not doing so badly compared to USA,
considering the US is a much less densely populated country

USA death rate / million is almost 4 x that of Germany

Also New York death rate was v high
USA death rate is low in the v low population density states, but high in cities
A huge geographical area like the USA should have Scandinavian / Nordic level death rates, but USA death rate is far higher

@Jrobhatch29

8% of those in their 50s need hospitalization.

As Texas is finding out now, that’s precisely the problem, not just the risk of death

I was responding to the the OPs point about death rate with a follow up comment about death rate. We can discuss death rate still you know as a point on its own without yeah but long term effects/hospitalisations!

As a side note 8% of people in their 50s with CONFIRMED cases need hospital treatment. It is not 8% of everyone in their 50s who gets covid. Overall UK hospitalisation rate for all ages is about 3%

The death rate will go up if you can’t get hospital treatment.

Unfortunately the UK didn’t hospitalize nearly enough people which partly accounts for our very high death rate.

Young and middle-aged people should have v low death rates,
now we know about treatment like early O2 etc

However, early and non-rationed treatment is vital for the significant % that need hospital

Millions in the US don't have full / any healthcare insurance

The "promise" that CV care will be free doesn't cover the large copays
that can be impossible for those on low income
or even the struggling middle that have lost their jobs and hence sometimes their better insurance

Oh, you must have missed all the threads, FB groups, doctor warnings and news about the thousands of healthy, fit people who are still struggling after 12 weeks. Not back to normal, not like flu.

It is ‘positive’ in the sense that they seem to be getting on top of what treatments work well. I was chatting to a friend just yesterday who is a doctor in the U.K. & he was saying so many more lives are being saved now. It’s a big reason our death rate is slowing. They know what’s working now for many, many cases. Dr friend said the hardest cases are the elderly as they are already so frail & most have DNR’s..

I also don’t think it’s particularly a bad thing if young people are getting it but not needing hospital as surely, that’s the whole point!

@DianaT1969 - many viruses leave you poorly for a while. I was out of action for a good 3 months after flu. It floored me. And I was a very fit & healthy 27 year old at the time. Running half marathons regularly.

This is a nasty virus for some & it’ll take a good while for them to start to feel better. It’s not that unusual. It won’t last forever. And to be honest, in a global pandemic where so many are dying, feeling a bit unwell & out of breath for a few months isn’t the end of the world. I’ve just had Hyperemesis for 9 months. Felt like I might die. Vomited 30+ times a day. Numerous hospital admissions. Lost a significant amount of weight. Yet I still had to get up, look after my toddler & try to work. You just get on with.

I also don’t think it’s particularly a bad thing if young people are getting it but not needing hospital as surely, that’s the whole point!
Sounds lie all the recent news that young healthy people aren't recovering from mild cases of coronations, and may have life long health problems, has passed you by then.

coronations = coronavirus obviously

[quote Bol87]@DianaT1969 - many viruses leave you poorly for a while. I was out of action for a good 3 months after flu. It floored me. And I was a very fit & healthy 27 year old at the time. Running half marathons regularly.

This is a nasty virus for some & it’ll take a good while for them to start to feel better. It’s not that unusual. It won’t last forever. And to be honest, in a global pandemic where so many are dying, feeling a bit unwell & out of breath for a few months isn’t the end of the world. I’ve just had Hyperemesis for 9 months. Felt like I might die. Vomited 30+ times a day. Numerous hospital admissions. Lost a significant amount of weight. Yet I still had to get up, look after my toddler & try to work. You just get on with.[/quote]
The hyperemesis sounds tough. Very fortunate then that you were able to be admitted multiple times into hospital for treatment.

Not really possible if the hospitals are full of covid patients and are an infection risk.