Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 12

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 12 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

"It's the kind of thing that needs a critical mass to do it, particularly among kids. One kid wearing a mask could well be bullied because that's kids for you. Get the teachers and 80% of the class wearing them, then it would be the kids who don't who are made fun of."

Just like making fun of the child who wears glasses or a hearing aid or uses a wheelchair or doesn't do well in tests. That is what you are advocating you know.

No, obviously not, I just said that the child I know who wanted to wear a mask won't, even though she really really wants to because 'they'll make fun of me'. And her anxiety is considerably worse because she knows she's not doing what she could.

Obviously there are children who can't wear a mask, just as there are children who can't do other things and the adults should be in the position to stop bullying by explaining why that is. The problem is when the adults aren't doing it the kids won't either because it's hard when you're a kid to be the first to do something even when right.

If you have a child who can't wear a mask, if everyone else does it, that will still be protective of your child - why wouldn't you want that?

If the adults and other children weren't hand washing it would be similarly hard to get kids to hand wash.

As it is, it is adults who do the socially responsible thing who are mocked in this country (but not in others). Even though wearing masks is actually more protective of other people.

@Derbygerbil or anyone
Another factor would be the level of virus exposure... If exposed to limited viral load, T cells may be sufficient for some individuals, but not if exposed to very high viral doses.

I know we have no way of knowing how well our own TCells would react in this situation BUT is there an argument that a low viral dose that your TCells can cope with is likely to kickstart your immune system to better resist a higher viral road

Thanks for these threads. They've been a beacon of sanity during these difficult times.

Have they stopped adding cases per town / area?

@Cusano34

Have they stopped adding cases per town / area?

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/cases

They are here - use the arrow next to "United Kingdom" to see the drop downs to change area.

630 cases and 126 deaths today.

Down from 749 cases and 176 deaths last Wednesday.

Looking at the Government data platform, all of the 7 day averages continue downward aswell which is good.

@PatriciaHolm so strange mine shows 0 for everywhere in the U.K. today 🤦‍♀️

[quote Cusano34]@PatriciaHolm so strange mine shows 0 for everywhere in the U.K. today 🤦‍♀️[/quote]
how odd! try clearing your website cache? or open the page on another browser.

The mask issue in the U.K. is ridiculous. If Scotland are saying you must in shops, I don't see why we mustn't in schools.

It's increasingly evident that mask wearing that reduces transmission. I wonder if the drip feeding of that from the who will impact policy in schools.

I have asthma so do understand the issues there. I also teach autistic children so understand those issues too. However I also know of many of my bunch who'd love to wear a mask. The issue would be that they would potentially take it on and off and fiddle with it etc.

In Japan and China they're so used to mask wearing it's like seatbelts. It will take time to get children used to it; no reason why older ones can't though.

My concern is that there are a heck of a lot of idiots who think it's mind control and would actively resist their children wearing them.

Is this still the figures thread?

Or is it just another thread where people call people idiots because they don't do as they say?

The mask issue in the U.K. is ridiculous. If Scotland are saying you must in shops, I don't see why we mustn't in schools

I don't understand how you got from "shops" to "schools" in that train of thought.

I have been flitting in and out of these stats threads since the first and wondered if someone could help me with a ridiculous stats query.

The area I live in was listed as a potential hotspot in the local rag yesterday because of total cases per 100,000.

Now, we have only had 3 or 4 cases in the last two weeks, reducing all the time and definitely down from the peak.

So my question is, the figure they use the cumulative figure per 100k population. So how could we now be a hotspot with very few cases now, when the figure is taking into account numbers from months ago?

Does that make sense?

@LivinLaVidaLoki

I have been flitting in and out of these stats threads since the first and wondered if someone could help me with a ridiculous stats query.

The area I live in was listed as a potential hotspot in the local rag yesterday because of total cases per 100,000.

Now, we have only had 3 or 4 cases in the last two weeks, reducing all the time and definitely down from the peak.

So my question is, the figure they use the cumulative figure per 100k population. So how could we now be a hotspot with very few cases now, when the figure is taking into account numbers from months ago?

Does that make sense?

Someone doesn't understand numbers, do they.. Not you! The local rag.

Of course you can't use cumulative figures; you need to look at recent, probably 7 day moving averages really.

They are talking nonsense ;-) if they really are basing it on cumulative totals. However; it is easy to do, if you are just looking at the UK stats page, as that's all it gives you in the form of list of comparisons. To look at day by day, you need to look at each area. Which is unhelpful....

@livin Most likely the journalists at your local rag are clueless and as you say they're looking at the total (cumulative) cases rather than the recent ones. Places that were badly hit early in are still showing up high by that measure even though many areas (such as most of London) now have quite low rates.

The number tested positive in the last week (per 100,000 people) is what you should be looking at if you want to know whether there's a high proportion of people you might catch it from locally.

Thanks @PatriciaHolm
I wasn't sure if it was just me being a bit ridiculous but I just thought, if that was the way it was calculated we were always going to be a hotspot as the number is never going to go down is it?

"I don't understand how you got from "shops" to "schools" in that train of thought"

In both cases, masks reduce the risk to staff and to other adults & kids becoming infected.

There is a lot of evidence that masks help reduce the spread of infection
and it would help help reassure some teachers, parents and kids to resume ft school after the vacation

My NDN's GDs (Germany) both chose to wear masks in class before the vacation
It is compulsory in corridors

During the time schools reopened pt here, 4 May - late June,
all forms were rotated through and there were no reports of kids being upset by this, or education being disrupted.

Masks are just not a drama here,
because kids are used to seeing adult wear them and to wearing masks themselves in shops etc

@LivinLaVidaLoca

The media in general have been appalling at reporting stats appropriately, a recent example being the Daily Mail and their reporting of 36 areas apparently at risk of imminent lockdown due to their sharply rise Covid cases, when many had simply increased by 1 case from a very low base of 1 or 2, giving large percentage rises!

"they use the cumulative figure per 100k population."
🤦🏻‍♀️
You need to check daily positives for Pillar 1+2 for infections
and useful also to look at the trend in the weekly totals

Funnily enough, people here are surprised when I mention UK schools mostly have uniforms:
kids here wear what they want
but masks for kids in shops, public transport, schools .... no problem

Trouble is that in order to look at the rate of recent local cases you either need to search manually though a very long spreadsheet, or create a pivot table, which isn't something your average local rag journalist can be necessarily do. The government really ought to be publishing some nice clear stats on the risk in local areas, to help stop all the false scaremongering by local papers and people on social media who aren't able to pull the right information out of the database. Especially in the light of the evidence from Leicester that someone posted earlier suggesting that cases started to fall as soon as they told people it was a hotspot, before they even did the local lockdown. Give people good data and they will change their behaviour to avoid risks and you won't need so many lockdowns

Australia - state of Victoria:

New cases accelerating, already above the peak of the initial outbreak in March/April
These new cases are almost all from local community spread, not imported from abroad

==> Melbourne now under 6 weeks local lockdown

FT article yesterday:

www.ft.com/content/652a945c-1684-442a-a451-ce6502978412

National and especially local newspapers have cut back drastically on professional journos

This is mostly because of the longterm drop in purchasing papers and in ad revenue,
as people go to social media for news

So newspapers mostly won't / can't pay for deep analysis and research,
for experienced pros,
for someone to use shoe leather, instead of a few lazy Googles

Then they all copy each other's errors, instead of doing their own work

TV channels have much more money, but they'd rather use it for game shows, sleb hosts etc
to raise viewing figure and hence ad revenue

It's increasingly evident that mask wearing that reduces transmission

It does, but does it really have any appreciable impact on transmission in the locations such as shops?... In all my visits, encounters with other customers have been very brief and socially distanced apart from possibly a split second where we might be than 2m apart. The chances of transmission, even if I encountered someone who was infected would be tiny, and given there are only a couple of confirmed infections per week in my 250,000 population district, the risk becomes infinitesimal.

Covid infections overwhelmingly occur when people interact at close quarters indoors for extended periods. In such circumstances, masks would make a difference.... so it makes good sense to wear a mask on crowded public transport or at a hairdressers.

However, I think mask wearing in shops would likely only have a very marginal impact on actual infections, and a like the risks of not washing your shopping in this respect... However, I’d still be in favour of making them mandatory to increase confidence in those more at risk, both helping them re-engage with society whilst also helping to improve the economy. It also would help remind people they are still living in a pandemic and remain aware and cautious.

Hospital in Boris's constituency forced to close its a&e because 70 staff are either positive or have to self-isolate. www.ft.com/content/a2cb944b-6f81-4f51-9e65-5d9aa4bb44c6

I dont know why admissions data are so out of date now, almost like the government dont wish us to know what is going on!