Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 12

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 12 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

Hopefully, the Chancellor will reverse this incredible HMRC stupidity immediately,
but how on earth did noone at HMRC think first ?

Too many still don't realise that there must be different rules during a pandemic

https://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/treasury-committee/news-parliament-2017/chair-comment-income-tax-coronavirus-19-21/

HMRC guidance published yesterday (6 July) clarified that employees will face a taxable benefit in kind when their employer pays for coronavirus testing.
.....
Rt Hon. Mel Stride MP, Chair of the Treasury Committee, has written to Rt Hon. Rishi Sunak MP, Chancellor of the Exchequer,
to look into this matter as soon as possible.
.....
“Many employees, especially healthcare and hospitality workers, are required to undergo regular coronavirus testing.
.......
“Many of our key workers could be faced with the perverse incentive of avoiding employer-sponsored tests in order to reduce their tax bill."

Interestingly, the Leicester situation seems to show that awareness can be almost as effective as a lockdown. Looks like the cases began to fall as soon as the general public learnt about the issue.

@cricketwyvern
There was been a significant drop in cases in Leicester between the peak on 24 June and 2 July but it could not possibly have been the result of the lockdown.

I hope journalists, local MPs and @CityMayorLeic will challenge @MattHancock on this point.

Or maybe test and trace is actually working in Leicester? That would be good news!

The important grey euro is not
the wealthy well informed health focused older sector with high levels of disposable income will presumably have made big changes to their behaviours!
These are folk who truly were able to optimise their golden years, optimising your golden years now mean something very different, ie staying at home and not spending very much!

I think the theory was that for 50% of population there is some innate immunity via Tcells whether crossover from previous Corona, BCG or whatever, but at max places like NYC and London , once new cases had reached approaching 20% gave enough total resistance in population

Given that antibody levels are at least double 20% in some selected areas, it would imply that 20% antibodies in a population wouldn’t give herd immunity, it seems as though there’s likely to have been enough infection to partially blunt any resurgence.... though this depends on how long immunity lasts.

Another factor would be the level of virus exposure... If exposed to limited viral load, T cells may be sufficient for some individuals, but not if exposed to very high viral doses.

@crosseyedMary

The important grey euro is not the wealthy well informed health focused older sector with high levels of disposable income will presumably have made big changes to their behaviours! These are folk who truly were able to optimise their golden years, optimising your golden years now mean something very different, ie staying at home and not spending very much!

I agree that these people did, but again there is the polarisation as shown by the crowded beaches, raves and demonstrations - as some people went out still and plenty also had to work.

Anecdotal but I know plenty of the older generation who are now mixing with their grandchildren again, and my roofing company tells me he is getting huge numbers of enquiries from people wanting to spend money on their homes.

In several countries, the age of people infected has fallen sharply as the young go out
and the (rightly) more cautious elderly stay home more than before

I can see this change in local Rhine restaurants and cafes

• the elderly used to pack them out, especially during working hours

This demographic change seems the major reason for the fall in death rates of confirmed cases

• e.g. the weekly age / hospitalisation / death table from Germany backs this up -

along with improved knowledge about how to treat ill people

No evidence - so far - that the virus itself has actually mutated to become milder,
but past viruses have done so after 2-3 years epidemic and it could happen sooner if we're lucky

"the crowded beaches, raves and demonstrations"

Damn few elderly at any of those
but shows the young are resuming much of their previous normal life

• understandably, since they are at such low risk

Spiegelhalter & others have calculated that an 80-year-old has about 500 x the risk as a 20-year-old,
of dying - if infected with COVID

In that village / area in N Italy where 1% of the entire population died of COVID,
a serology study found 37% of the population had antibodies

NYC with a high death rate had 24% with antibodies in late April - probably higher now

Areas with high rates of deaths mostly had lockdowns to bring these down
and are still being cautious with some SD rules on public transport, work etc

so we don't know how much "natural" immunity there is

Maybe we'd know - for a densely populated country with Western age demographics -
if Italy hadn't locked down
They were the catalyst for the lockdowns in Europe at least

@wintertravel1980

Interestingly, the Leicester situation seems to show that awareness can be almost as effective as a lockdown. Looks like the cases began to fall as soon as the general public learnt about the issue.

@cricketwyvern
There was been a significant drop in cases in Leicester between the peak on 24 June and 2 July but it could not possibly have been the result of the lockdown.

I hope journalists, local MPs and @CityMayorLeic will challenge @MattHancock on this point.

This - possibly - seems to be happening in Victoria, too. Cases yesterday were 134, down from 191 the day before.

There were some smaller local lockdowns before the Metro Melbourne one just announced, and it seems as if these, combined with high local awareness may have been sufficient.

I say may as one day's data isn't enough to draw a conclusion, but it's certainly needs to be watched.

Sweden has suffered a similar fall in GDP to its neighbours - and Germany -while having 4 x the deaths / million

Yes - this is a very interesting article supporting this www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html?smid=fb-share&fbclid=IwAR2Ew654MiDhkaUXY0n77JVHxSZgR-ORv2TO6Pe3QrckibHKp8q11mUHWYk

And South Korea - where they implemented virus control measures early on, such as masks and aggressive test and trace, have managed to keep their economy going much better. I'm guessing in part this is because the population, seeing the success their government has had keeping the death rate low, trust the government / medical officials to get it right and so are happier going about their business. In this country it's difficult to see how that trust can be regained.

Or as BigChoc says

It also makes the anxious even less trusting now to go back to school and work. Denying there was ever a problem just makes them turn more to alarmist sources

I'd say denying the problem means people will disbelieve the government and perhaps look to countries and organisations - such as WHO - who predicted correctly what was going to happen in the UK and Sweden. Add in the undeniable fact that there is still so little known about this virus - whether there is lasting immunity for example - and many people who can will apply the precautionary principle in their own lives.

The problem is that the government is undermining those who might want to minimise their personal risk (e.g. someone working in the service industry who wants to wear a mask and for customers to wear masks) but cannot force their employer to follow sensible measures because the government has not mandated them and cannot afford to quit their job. Mask wearing is not a cultural norm here - for it to happen, the government really has to mandate it and apply penalties for non-compliance.

They won't mandate it because then they would have to say that teachers should wear masks and at the moment they are saying they don't need to.

btw, the "1 in 100 years pandemic" is a common phrase used by public health officials and governments around the world

to explain / excuse why public health systems and health services took so long to gear up and cope with the COVID pandemic:

the cost is thought prohibitive to always keep resources for 1 in 100 year events
Not just in pandemics, but for floods, hurricanes etc

However, after the massive global cost in lives and economy,
imo sensible developed countries (who can afford this) are likely to at least keep a basic capacity with systems that can be much more quickly expanded at need,
stocks of PPE and local manufacturing of some essentials.

With an expanding global population continually encroaching on animal habitats and being careless about contamination with meat etc
new pandemics from animal sources are likely to continue and the occasional one will be severe.

Also, the WHO will be instructed by members to be much more proactive in monitoring, not being so naive about lying governments and giving specific warnings earlier.
However, politics & big money - and threats - are always going to be a problem when a pandemic starts in one of the major powers.

I just don't understand the Uk problem with masks:

Far lower deaths in Germany - and several weeks of single figures or low double digit deaths -
but masks still mandatory in shops and public transport, stations, taxis etc
for those aged 6+

There are v few Doomsters, but most people are still very compliant

Schools

Teachers and pupils here are allowed to wear masks in class if they wish
and I think masks are mandatory in corridors and some other areas

However, the return to schools, pt from 4 May / ft from late August,
was / has been planned in cooperation and consultation with all stakeholders,
including national & state govts, education experts and teachers' unions

The detailled plans for each school were then worked out locally - in 400 administrative districts -
in consulation with local public health and education departments,
given the requested additional budgets for extra staff & cleaning etc,
then signed off by the local authority.

There has been no scapegoating of unions or teachers by the government at national or local level

Cooperation works so much better than confrontation and top-down dictats

Teachers are allowed to wear masks or face shields in my school if they want. Only teachers who are happy to be back are back though, and most of us aren't wearing them. Only a few people in the building though, and broadly we keep 2m away from each other. I'm only with children 1 day a week at the minute, so easy to stay away recording lessons and replying to emails from my classroom.

I expect in September when everyone has to be back, there will be more of the mask and shield wearing going on.

So is forbidding / allowing masks a decision by the local authority or by the indićvidual heads ?

Are DC allowed masks in classrooms ?
Are masks compulsory for all in corridors etc at your school ?

The guidance I have read from DoE is that neither teachers or students need or should use any PPE u less a teacher is in a room with a student with Covid symptoms waiting for them to be collected by a parent.
I think then different schools are interpreting this differently from " you can if you want to" to " no you mustn't"
There is no extra money to provide PPE for teachers and no extra money for increased daily cleaning either

Well, one of the young children in my life is back at school and would really like to wear a mask but won't because none of her classmates do and "they'll make fun of me". It's the kind of thing that needs a critical mass to do it, particularly among kids. One kid wearing a mask could well be bullied because that's kids for you. Get the teachers and 80% of the class wearing them, then it would be the kids who don't who are made fun of.

It needs clear direction from the adults involved. They're only mandated on public transport in England and I've seen very few people wearing them out and about. It's hard enough being in the minority when you're at the supermarket - but it becomes impossible when you're in school.

One kid wearing a mask could well be bullied because that's kids for you. Get the teachers and 80% of the class wearing them, then it would be the kids who don't who are made fun of.

Are you really advocating a strategy based on "making fun of" children who won't comply?

@Langismyhero

I've reported your post, I don't know if mnhq will consider it to be against posting guidelines since they typically are not great on disability issues but I'd like you to know how distressing it is to see an adult advocating that children are bullied for failing to comply to your preferred behaviour.

I like many other parents on this site have a child who could never wear a mask due to their autism, has been bullied as a result of their autistic behaviours and has self harmed as a result of that.

I hope your post was just ill thought out & knee jerk because to think that people (you) might actually think ostracising children is a good thing is just awful

Patricia. Ffs. The poster is just saying "It's just kids behaving like kids." No one is advocating that kids bully mask wearing or not mask wearing as a strategy

"It's the kind of thing that needs a critical mass to do it, particularly among kids. One kid wearing a mask could well be bullied because that's kids for you. Get the teachers and 80% of the class wearing them, then it would be the kids who don't who are made fun of."

It clearly says that making fun of children is a strategy to get them to comply to a behaviour which the poster has deemed desirable.

I'm off to gym classes now, but may I remind posters of the request at the end of the OP:

"We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors"

Let's return to civil discussion
and any new stats that are to be found

We've had no cases in my town or adjacent town for over 2 weeks.
Suspected case in pub and has closed and now confirmed case in school (adjacent town).

I think this is probably due to the fact people have travelled out of area and are bringing it back.

pm