Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 12

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 12 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

@Lifejacket

For the LGA data I noticed they are using the median rather than the mean average. Does anyone know why they are doing it this way round please?

Normally you would use Median if you thought there were outliers in the data set that would pull the Mean up. So if you had a set of data that was

1,1,1,2,2,2,3,3,3,4,4,4,5,5,5,100 : the mean would be 18, the median 3.

That may be why, though the affect of say Leicester on the mean given the number of areas wouldn't be very much I don't think.

@PatriciaHolm thank you x

.

@BigChocFrenzy

Yes, I've read estimates of flu IFR as 0.044 Also, despite MN's usual "not real flu", many people with flu have only cold-like symptoms Nearly all viruses seem to have this wide range of severity

I thinks that's why when people have a bad cold cold they also think it's flu.

I have flu jab each year. I've had awful cold viruses during winter. Real sinus humdingers.
Knocked me out for days.

@alreadytaken

adding East Staffs in - not massive but a pub needing to close maybe? Eastbourne a little bump, Fareham had a few cases after over a week with none but just a handful. Gosport a handle after a long period with none, do you think they are being counted as outbreaks? Hackney and City of London a few cases recently. Haringey litte bump, maybe not everywhere had no BLM impact. Harrow very low but moving average going up. Hillingdon not showing a massive spike after the hospital closure but had a sustained lowish level of infection. Anglesey's eat plant infection not leading to any sustained increased in cases after it's spike.

Fareham had no cases from 16/6 until 2/7 and Gosport 11/6 until 2/7. Then 1 or 2 daily every few days for past week. I've been monitoring these as live and work this area.

So far it seems controlled but did make me question whether it's people who e travelled out of area and brought it back or people visiting bringing it in. With no cases in 14 days you would assume in community transmission had halted?

Is this an effect of the pillar 2 cases being included since 2nd July, though?

With no cases in 14 days you would assume in community transmission had halted?

Or it could be a few people had it but asymptomatically, and have passed it on to someone who becomes symptomatic. Remember maybe 50%+ of cases never have symptoms.

UK stats today -11 deaths, 530 cases.

The usual "weekend stats!!" caveat though ;-)

Is that not just the hospital figure or are there no community deaths to add to it?

I've totted up the total numbers of reported deaths for the last 7 days and the 7 days before that.

Last seven days - 596
Previous seven days - 665
So still on the down. But very slowly. It would appear hardly any care home deaths are registered at the weekend.

@twolittleboysonetiredmum

Is that not just the hospital figure or are there no community deaths to add to it?

That's all, no additions from PHE today - will be catch up over the next couple of days though.

7 day rolling average deaths per day up to 9th (no point using later data yet) is now 62, down from 88 on the 2nd.

Why am I seeing 820 confirmed infections?..

Can I ask you knowledgeable people a question about asymptomatic cases? Right from the start china said 80% of cases are mild and that message has been continued. But at the time they denied any asymptomatic cases. Now we always hear 80% are mild OR asymptomatic. Is that the case or is it more like 50% (or whatever the asymptomatic rate is) of all cases are asymptomatic and 80% of symptomatic cases are 'mild'?

Slight addendum - PHE actually did add 4 deaths today, but took 4 away as well (usually as a result of double counting) so net was 0.

@PopFizzClink

Why am I seeing 820 confirmed infections?..

Dunno - try refreshing? are you looking on the Gov dashboard? Mine has updated.

@Jrobhatch29

Can I ask you knowledgeable people a question about asymptomatic cases? Right from the start china said 80% of cases are mild and that message has been continued. But at the time they denied any asymptomatic cases. Now we always hear 80% are mild OR asymptomatic. Is that the case or is it more like 50% (or whatever the asymptomatic rate is) of all cases are asymptomatic and 80% of symptomatic cases are 'mild'?

As far as I can work out, current thinking is...

• approximately, maybe half of all infections are asymptomatic (suggested by CDC and others) - could be higher, but we really don't know at this stage.
• of the others, around 10%/15% (so 5-8% of all cases) require hospitalisation. Obviously this will range widely with age.

That leaves around 40%-ish of cases as symptomatic, but not requiring hospitalisation.

Now, of course some of those will have very mild symptoms, some will have worse experiences, and some it seem will have ongoing health issues for a while.

Still in a queue.
I feel like Pheobe from Friends................

@PopFizzClink

Why am I seeing 820 confirmed infections?..

That was a day or 2 ago. Agree about refreshing.

Oops posted on the wrong thread.
Sorry!

@LivinLaVidaLoki

Oops posted on the wrong thread. Sorry!

I'm glad you clarified. I was searching back through the thread wondering what I'd missed

@Jrobhatch29

Can I ask you knowledgeable people a question about asymptomatic cases? Right from the start china said 80% of cases are mild and that message has been continued. But at the time they denied any asymptomatic cases. Now we always hear 80% are mild OR asymptomatic. Is that the case or is it more like 50% (or whatever the asymptomatic rate is) of all cases are asymptomatic and 80% of symptomatic cases are 'mild'?

In Germany, about 18% of confirmed cases required hospitalisation, 2% needed ICU Much higher chance of hospitalisation for older people than the young

Also, some of the "milder" cases at home - I think the criteria was being ill enough to stay in bed - had regular home visits by a health team,
checking blood O2, BP, heart etc

but then some of these would later have become part of the 18% hospitalised

Im losing thee plot @itsgettingweird

Estimates are that - especially at the peak - there were several times the confirmed cases in Germany,

so presumably those not tested were either asymptomatic or very mild,
(or maybe self-employed !)
but no figures atm

Thank you! The information changes so often it's hard to keep up!

Potentially good news about transmission within schools from a German study (apparently low but maybe because of distancing measures in place?):
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/13/german-study-covid-19-infection-rate-schools-saxony