Perhaps it's me but I'm actually quite reassured by the Matt Hancock outbreaks indicative number and that it support the largely positive direction of travel in terms of cases (and more so in terms of hospital admissions); and the swift very localised actions being taken for targeted community settings.
I do think we will need to get used to some plateauing in the case numbers, as the next step change down is going to be less easily, not sure if that is the right word or not, achieved.
Picking up on some of the areas flagged and working on cases per 100,000 population as opposed to absolute case numbers to allow like to like comparison of the numbers. Taking the seven day cases per 100,000 figure at 9th July (recognising this should not be too far off complete as opposed to the position on the 10th, 11th) and going about 10 days back to the 7 day cases per 100,000 at that time.
Bolton was at 23.6 cases per 100,000 now at 18.8; looks to be flat and maybe starting to reduce further.
Blackburn 23.4 now at 38.1, and I think an upward trajectory still by the looks of things.
Calderdale 19.4 now at 17.0 but recent days heading upwards
East Northants and to which could be added Kettering and *Northampton all previously around the 11-13 mark now at 15.9; 22.6 and 21.4 respectively; and again gently increasing trajectory
East Staff was 10.9 now at 20.0
Eastbourne not so sure, 14.5 as compared with 16.4, but again seems on a gradual increase
Pendle - actually this does stand out. 17.4 and now 61.9, so clearly something has happened.
Sticking in Lancs and whilst at a much lower level Fylde was at 5.0 and now 9.9
In the south-east
Woking 5.0 to 11.9
St Albans 9.4 to 17.5, although looks to be flat / starting to decline again
With almost all the above, bar Blackburn and Pendle in particular; the cases per 100,000 (seven day figure) are still all below 25, and many well below 20.
More positively
Oadby and Wigston - 50.9 and now has fallen to 31.6
and there are a whole swathe of LAs where their cases per 100,000 are still either falling as compared to a week / 10 days ago or at worse staying flat below 5 cases per 100,000 people.
What of course we don't know is what is driving case numbers in the particular areas highlighted above. I'd imagine there will be a variety of reasons - care homes, schools, places of work, maybe some genuine wider community. So for each without understanding the problem second guessing the solution is probably best avoided. :)
Herefordshire has of course jumped massively in cases per 100,000; however we know this is due to a very localised outbreak on a farm with seasonal workers. I can't help thinking that 73 cases in a very contained location is very different to say 73 cases in a central city office environment where all those people scatter via public transport to every point of the compass at the end of the day.
Increasingly the headline numbers will be more difficult to interpret and the devil really will be in the (local) detail.