Who else is convinced we may have a second wave over Autumn/Winter?

[mummymayhem18]

Hi everyone. Is anyone else like me convinced we will have a second wave over Autumn/Winter? Both myself and my husband are in the at risk categories. He because he has Asthma and myself because I have a fairly low immunity because of various health conditions and because I'm obese and also Vitamin D deficient which have both been extra factors according the news. Well I've already started buying a few extra bits anticipating that all this will happen again. Not stockpiling but buying toilet paper,paracetamol,gluten free pasta,flour,things that were hard to get at the beginning. Although flour and baking items still always seem to be unavailable even now every time I try and order them. I get my shopping delivered. All of our household can only take paracetamol as a painkiller so when my husband is having a migraine and takes the maximum dose a day and I often suffer from headaches and pain that can mean 1 box used in just one day. Don't get me wrong I'm not stockpiling and have a bunker full of stuff but just want to be a bit prepared as sadly I think Coronavirus is going to be around for a long time. Anyone else feeling the same ? ☺️

I think the second wave will come sooner, perhaps towards the end of July, but hopefully it won't be as bad as the first wave. The NHS has learned a lot about treating Covid patients, there is additional capacity in the Nightingale hospitals, and there is a drug which helps reduce the death rate in serious cases, so all this leads me to be hopeful that things won't be as bad as the peak in mid April was.

OP, you are doing the right thing in stocking up now - that is sensible preparation, which is different from panic buying. Once the death rates begin to rise sharply again we will see the same panic buying that happened in March, when the penny drops with the hard of thinking and they will ignore all requests not to panic buy. I have started stocking up again, getting a few extra things each week. I see this as one of the few things we can do to help ourselves get through a period of lockdown, or the need to self isolate, should either happen. It's not selfish to think ahead, and could also put you in a position where you are able to help others, who may not be able to prep for themselves.

Yes I do.... and I think the most sensible thing any of us can do is get as healthy as possible before it does.... for me, aiming to lose some of the extra weight, exercising, regular Vitamin D, etc

It may go slower than last time due to 6% immunity

There is no guaranteed immunity for people who have already had the virus. There is no guaranteed anything, because not enough is known about the virus yet. It's one of the awful things about it.

I think any second wave will he slower because we are more prepared and understand how to strictly lockdown if need be.

Going back to the very first daily briefings. They told us that there would probably be rolling lockdowns, strict, light, strict, light and so on, that could last months, possibly even longer. I'm not sure that we know much more about this virus than we did then.

I agree with the posts that say stockpiling is not the same as panic buying. Stockpilers/preppers actually help because when the panic happens, they do not have to join in. So less shoppers when supplies are running out.

True but i think it's likely at least short term immunity. (Though strains can be different too.)
I think most people with young kids will be off for minimum of a few days frequently with fever /cough until tested.
Plus obviously dont know what will happen in the countries they get food from.
So many things you couldnt buy.
School books
Chalk for drawing
Mince
Tinned curry
Eggs
Sand
Compost

Yes, I think there will be a second wave. Or, at least, a need to introduce lockdowns again. Unless we have made major advances in testing and tracing or people take social distancing more seriously then they did in March.

The virus is still there. 5-10% immunity is far too low to even just slow another outbreak. At the moment infection numbers are falling faster then the models are predicting, despite the relaxations and despite all the beaches, BLM, etc. I think a likely explanation is that the virus does, after all, get less infectious in the summer. Good for now, but it means we are back to square one once the autumn comes.

I don't understand why people think that opening airports will make a difference. You don't get the virus from "abroad", you get the virus from meeting someone who is infectious. If abroad has roughly the same number of infections as here then the likelihood of catching it "abroad" is no higher than catching it at Tescos. I think the government are finally doing the right thing re borders, in quarantining those from high infection countries (like the US), while allowing free travel to countries that have it under control. Hope they are fast enough to react to changes this time, unlike in February/March when they were so fixated on the "Chinese virus" that they missed Italy and Austria.

@dadandtwokids

Isn’t it more that by travelling- especially flying- there are lots of people from a wide area all herded into airports, funnelling through pinch points like security and passport control, touching surfaces like handrails, and then crowded together on planes, so the spread becomes much more likely?

I don’t think it will be like the first no, I think the advances in medicine and knowledge about it will prevent it.

In addition, to the explanation about why airports and air travel will increase virus spread, being stuck in an enclosed plan with several hundred people sitting very close to each other for several hours with recycled air is not the same as being in Tesco.
The main difference with relaxation of restrictions now compared to VE Day, BLM protests, beaches etc, is that people are mixing indoors in larger numbers and closer proximity. Covid-19 is mainly spread by droplets in the air so there are going to be more cases now and massively more in Autumn and Winter, unless there is a vaccine for at least 85% of the population (bear in mind the government has only bought enough vaccine for much less than that apparently)

it is possible there will be a second wave but I do not believe it is inevitable.

What is inevitable is that some people will proclaim any minor increase infections, hospital admissions or deaths as irrefutable proof that a second wave is upon and demand an immediate return to lockdown - preferably locking down even harder than previously and with harsher penalties for breaking the guidance...

I'm convinced there won't be.

There might be more local flare ups though.

I'm not convinced, our lockdown has been so lax I think a much higher proportion of brits have already had it than say Italy or Spain. I think we are just going to plateau whereas the continent is at a greater risk of having a second wave as their lockdown was very strict

Also there is plenty of research showing that the virus thrives in cold and damp air, another reason there will be many more infections in autumn and winter. Other viruses also behave the same, including other coronaviruses that cause the common cold. In fact, the virus can survive/thrive at sub-zero temperatures.

I'm sure there will always be cases. I imagine it'll become another seasonal issue like the flu. I don't think it will remain the case that it sends areas into lockdown.

But if the vaccines work and our government buys enough of a vaccine that works, then all will be well. Please government buy enough vaccine for everyone - you are spending billions supporting the economy, but if everyone (at least 86%) were vaccinated then the economy could return to normal sooner. As someone under 65 with no vulnerability conditions, I will not be returning to shops and restaurants etc and spending any money until I have my vaccine.

5-10%would definitely slow it a bit. Especially if its
Hcp
Teachers
Transport workers
Supermarket/shop staff
People in cities.
Care home workers

Basically they wont then introduce it to all the people they are in contact with.

Planes are bad as pp said it's the close contact (cm apart) surfaces, airports with aircon and no windows. Plus it seeds it all over the country from the airport.
Relying on lots of countries keeping on top of outbreaks also seems a bad idea.
One positive might be the people toasting on beaches upping their vit D.
Also (uk too) people going to stay in an apartment someone jay have just vacated.

I think bristol is interesting as it is i think still pretty low.

Once the schools go back pretty much as normal in September, with no allowances for social distancing, wearing masks or restricted numbers, I think there will almost certainly be a second wave.

We're already seeing a noticeable increase in cases from the shops opening, with pubs + restaurants opening this weekend we're bound to have a spike

Apparently people are buying loo roll again 🙄

bastards!
I've not bought loo roll since 1982, I use nettles out the garden

www.google.com/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1282368/coronavirus-uk-scientists-deaths-october-december-china-wuhan-pandemic-ons-data-spt/amp

There was a spike in 2019.
A third wave may not be as

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-antibody-test-immunity-levels-study-sweden-a9595491.html

Oops pressed post too soon...
There was a spike in 2019 but as no one was aware of Covid then it was unexplained.
Also above link explains the high prevalence of Covid so many more people have been infected than we realise.
Although a long way from herd immunity it will definitely slow ans contain it. This will give government etc time to act, from the poor handling 1st time round

@Mangofandangoo this I can’t wrap my head around how this will work. My kids pick up every cold going so can have a cough every couple of weeks, it is not going to be sustainable isolating for 14 days every couple of weeks? And yes I know you would be tested but these aren’t 100% reliable are they

I don't think there will be a significant second wave. A good friend of mine was drafted into the new Nightingale in Brum and theres barely any new cases now. If I was the OP, I would be trying to work on my obesity and Vitamin D deficiency as to her point you are more likely to be susceptible with those conditions. I certainly would not be stockpiling.

@alaskathunderfuckhiiiiiiii

Same, I guess they will have to be tested but I didn't think that would be possible for under 5's. My dd is usually okay but I seem to catch everything going

I try not to dwell on it. It's been bad enough. What's the point of worrying about something I can't single handedly control?