Spring 2021

[onedayinthefuture]

So Chris Witty has said this could still last until Spring 2021 and I've heard this mentioned before way back when the pandemic started in March. There are various news articles dating back to March suggesting this. My question is, how do they come to this conclusion?

Because it's a waste of time to spend millions on a vaccine that doesn't work. You won't know if a vaccine doesn't work in less than 12 months after vaccines started being developed. And then it takes time to give vaccines to 20 million people or so. Vaccines started being developed in April/May 2020. April/May 2021 is a year later.

Maybe a miracle will emerge, maybe turn out most of us have cross immunity from some random cold virus & the truth death rate is only 0.1%. So the whole thing could peter away. But I doubt that.

The Oxford team started work on a vaccine in January not April

The Oxford team will apparently have the first million doses of vaccine ready for October.

Either CW doesn’t believe the Oxford vaccine will be ready or be successful OR he’s simply stating what we may be facing if there isn’t a vaccine as we just can’t yet know. Or maybe he thinks a vaccine is more likely to Spring 2021.

Pandemics historically have burnt themselves out. Either killing all their hosts or mutating to weaker, none deadly forms. It seems likely this one will do similar eventually. Or we’ll get a vaccine. Or we’ll find a combination of drugs that saves enough lives we’ll deem it sufficient to return to normal. We don’t lockdown for flu. Yet it kills thousands each year. But we clearly are at a point with flu where we think we can save enough lives that it’s acceptable to live normally. It’ll be the same with this virus. It will continue to kill but once numbers remain low we’ll be able to move on.

The worry to me is while I feel we are doing OK at the moment (and before anyone bites my head off, yes, I know we’ve done terribly overall but right now, things are improving), other countries are going to shit. I worry more now about imported cases as we begin to allow flights. People mock the quarantine but frankly, if you are coming back from Florida please bloody do!

Historically we never shut down everything to deal with any disease before. All we have heard for months is how this is the first time in X-hundred years that X-special-places closed. They stayed open thru bubonic plague & cholera & swine flu & Spanish flu... but not covid.
We are not letting this pandemic burn itself out like the others.

Ultimately, October-January = 8 months. No way to know if the vaccine protects you for at least a year in 8 months.

Think about it would you believe in November oh everyone is vaccinated now, we can go straight back to 'normal'. Probably not, most people will still want lots of precautions for months afterwards before they dare to think covid isn't a risk to them. and the vaccine has worked.

I just read they think the vaccine would be ready end of the year so maybe that something to do with it?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53061288

"The Imperial team hopes the vaccine could be distributed in the UK and overseas from early 2021"

Well the virus isn't going to just disappear is it, realistically?

I just think it seems very specific to say Spring 2021 as either he knows the vaccine is most likely going to work and be rolled out from autumn so by next spring we'll all be far safer for a proper return to normal. Or, does he think it will run its course by then? Patrick Vallance thinks it's showing no signs of burning out.