Anyone following what’s happening in the United States?

[Redolent]

A lesson in how not to reopen.

20 states are seeing significant increases. Some like Arizona, Florida, California and Texas are breaking records of positive cases and covid hospitalizations. ICUs almost full in Texas. Indoor-dining restaurants and bars have been open for a month or so in some of these states. This is still the first wave for them ...

Will be interesting to see if they lock down some states again. It seems inevitable for Arizona (26% of those who had a Coronavirus test today were positive, which is insane).

Info from NYT:

www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

The other country which seems very concerning is Russia. Cases rising lots and just opened up totally last week I think. Meanwhile Putin disinfects anyone going near him. They seem to be covering up figures, and just released news that lots of HCPs have died (due to PPE I think)

I don't think UK is at all comparable to the mess of the USA.

@Langsdestiny

I do know I am born and telling people to go and live in Brazil is not a useful way of debating the issue. There are absolute similarities between Trump and Johnson, removing scientists from press briefings is similar to Trumps behaviour, and the management of the Cummings debacle was again a very similar approach to Trump. There is a debate to be had about the leaders who have been successful in this crisis, and Johnson shares more approaches/characteristics with Trump than he does with Ardern for example. I agree that Johnson is a people pleaser, but one of Trumps dominant characteristics is his obsession with what others think of him.

scientists were not removed from briefings here? When did that happen? I watch them nearly every day There was one day with Vallance and Whitty turned up at number 10 but something else was being announced and so they did not appear but that wasn't as they were "removed" more that there was something esle to communicate. I now can't remember what that was!

There was a briefing in the middle of the cummings drama when every journalist asked a cummings related question and was directed at Valance and Whitty where they both said they had no desire to get involved in the politics and that was of course spun as Boris not letting them answer which was not the truth if you watched the briefing live as I did.

I agree this sort of crisis is not suited to every leader however and Boris personality is not best suited as he is a glass half full sort. However, looking back I also think May and Brown would have been terrible - too much control freakery.
Cameron might have been ok but I think Blair would have been best.

@Orangeblossom78

The other country which seems very concerning is Russia. Cases rising lots and just opened up totally last week I think. Meanwhile Putin disinfects anyone going near him. They seem to be covering up figures, and just released news that lots of HCPs have died (due to PPE I think)

yes Russia very concerning. They have had over 200 medic deaths and prob many more. They have had ventilatiors and hospitals catch fire killing people as they were so old. It's unimaginable to think that could happen here - and yet there offical deaths are better than ours - I don't think so.

I don't like BJ but see him as very different from Bolsonaro or Trump.

T & B they don't' care about correct procedure, fair rules, due process, tradition. They are purely self-serving and pandering openly to naked ugly prejudices. They constantly try to undermine other institutions of their own state or devolved regional governments. They openly oppose due process.

I'm not dismissing the lying to Queen episode, but that happened bc BJ doesn't pay attention to details, not bc he quite disrespects the Queen, much less the British constitution. BJ adores Churchill & many aspects of the traditional British establishment. BJ himself is not anti-establishment the way Bolsonaro & DT are. BJ's supporteers are also mostly quite pro-establishment; many Brexiters after all see themselves as 'true establishment' supporters, which meant opposing the usurping power of EU (as they saw things).

I agree they're all conservative populists, but BJ is harking to a populism that puts tradition on a pedestal. BJ is not a generic social conservative (Bolsonaro) or an opportunistic corrupt 'conservative' (Trump) -- both of whom also openly court bigots.

@bownfang

I don't like BJ but see him as very different from Bolsonaro or Trump.

T & B they don't' care about correct procedure, fair rules, due process, tradition. They are purely self-serving and pandering openly to naked ugly prejudices. They constantly try to undermine other institutions of their own state or devolved regional governments. They openly oppose due process.

I'm not dismissing the lying to Queen episode, but that happened bc BJ doesn't pay attention to details, not bc he quite disrespects the Queen, much less the British constitution. BJ adores Churchill & many aspects of the traditional British establishment. BJ himself is not anti-establishment the way Bolsonaro & DT are. BJ's supporteers are also mostly quite pro-establishment; many Brexiters after all see themselves as 'true establishment' supporters, which meant opposing the usurping power of EU (as they saw things).

I agree they're all conservative populists, but BJ is harking to a populism that puts tradition on a pedestal. BJ is not a generic social conservative (Bolsonaro) or an opportunistic corrupt 'conservative' (Trump) -- both of whom also openly court bigots.

good summary. Boris is also hugely socially liberal. He is a live and let live sort, wants everyone to get along and be happy. I think this attitude is why he was loathe to bring in a lock down and so dithered over this decision, it goes against all his political instincts- not because he wanted to kill the elderly or whatever stupid people think. He is the sort that wants everyone to be free and a lock down is obviously the polar opposite of that. He had no choice though due to the imperial prediction and the public were demanding it too.

anyway, I can see his faults too and agree he was probabl not the right leader for this particular issue.
Ardem for example has done amazingl well - she obviously commands the respect of her people but she has also been able to do things Boris would have not been able to do easily. Even now NZ residents on visas that were out of the country when lock down happened have not been allowed to return to NZ splitting families.
That is outrageous really if you think about it and racist too - but she gets away with it. Imagine that happening here - the guardian and the left would lose their minds!

Plus the NZ reaction to those two women returning home to visit dying mother. It was so lacking in empathy and compassion. They have been absolutely trashed in the NZ press.
The country has gone collectively mad about it and Jacinta has now announced no more compassionate break of quarantine - again that is a hardcore policy.
If Boris announced that he would be absolutely dragged by the left. But Ardem gets no negative comment at all.

anyway, I have enjoyed this chat - thank you all

I think we'll be overtaken by India, Russia

We probably already have been overtaken by Russia... Their published figures are for public Consumption only.

@sashagabadon

I suggest you re read what i wrote?

I didn't say we are the worst in the world, i said one of the worst and we are, per capita, we are up there, it is almost certain we will be the worst in europe.

The NHS coped by stopping almost all other treatments and by making sure only the very sickest got into hospital, its pretty obv that focusing all NHS resource on a single illness is going to get you results.

I suggest you take a look at the comments both Trump and Johnson have said about each other and then compare to Trump and May?

Johnson and Trump have both tried to use the law/power of their office to close down debate, both attempt to mold the court systems in their favour, both will lie and lie again to con the electorate, both will boycott media channels that challenge them, whether this is due to cummings or not is another matter but Johnson is quite happy to behave in this manner.

But we won't be one of the worst. We'll be middle of the pack.
We have the ons that reports deaths v accurately. Our stats can be trusted unlike many others.

And i agree re. Shutting down other illnesses to concentrate on covid. That has caused other deaths. So arguably lockdown has caused these deaths as the media scared people so much they would not seek hospital treatment.
Is that an argument pro or anti lockdown? It could be argued either way

Spain hasn't reported deaths for a couple of weeks now. Belguim is higher thsn us per capita. Each country records differently.
We will be one of the worst in europe i agree (with spain, italy and france) but we are one of the biggest populations too.
But europe is not the world. You said the world.

www.bbc.com/news/world-53073046
Excess deaths are grim for the uk. Spain is ahead of us but we are very very high. Beguim is often spouted as worse but it is not, it has a very wide count and the Uk would be much higher if it used the same count.

Yes, excess death rate pretty much discounts different ways of recording deaths so is going to be the most reliable indicator, certainly for comparing developed countries where overall death recording is likely to be fairly reliable. Ours is the worst in the world at the moment. Yes, there is still the potential for us to be overtaken by Russia/Brazil/the US but there's no way we're going to end up in the middle of the pack. The government will undoubtedly try to find a way to spin it though, and some people will fall for it.

Sorry, meant to say one of the worst in the world.

@DippyAvocado

Yes, excess death rate pretty much discounts different ways of recording deaths so is going to be the most reliable indicator, certainly for comparing developed countries where overall death recording is likely to be fairly reliable. Ours is the worst in the world at the moment. Yes, there is still the potential for us to be overtaken by Russia/Brazil/the US but there's no way we're going to end up in the middle of the pack. The government will undoubtedly try to find a way to spin it though, and some people will fall for it.

Lets see 12 months from now. London was reporting fewer deaths than expected in a normal year in the last week or so. A negative death rate. If that is replicated over the whole of the uk over the next few months excess death figures will go into reverse. No one knows right now. You have to see over a longer period. Excess deaths could be argued either way. In support of lockdown or against lockdown. I don't know which argument is right but no doubt everyone will argue passionately on both sides.

The arrogance and stupidity here is astounding. Posters are so reluctant to see what the rest of the world sees clearly - that Britain has fared shockingly badly as the result of its own choices and ineptitude-are actually trying to turn this into a positive be pretending that the figures show Britain's remarkable integrity and skill at *counting". You couldn't make it up. This is the kind of dim confirmation bias that has led to literally thousands of excess deaths. We are winning the Darwin awards in a tragic and frankly aggravating way.

I'm not actually that interested in whether Britain has done that badly.
Maybe some people are interested bc they suffer from the illusion that they can change the future?

I am curious what is happening full stop.

<a class="break-all" href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=www.thetimes.co.uk/article/london-deaths-back-to-normal-levels-for-first-time-since-covid-19-outbreak-cvsrrpz05&ved=2ahUKEwiK1brl2pDqAhVjolwKHfuoAQ0QFjAAegQIAxAB&usg=AOvVaw2LDh9IO7hTOK-QNfst9fHw" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=www.thetimes.co.uk/article/london-deaths-back-to-normal-levels-for-first-time-since-covid-19-outbreak-cvsrrpz05&ved=2ahUKEwiK1brl2pDqAhVjolwKHfuoAQ0QFjAAegQIAxAB&usg=AOvVaw2LDh9IO7hTOK-QNfst9fHw

@0v9c99f9g9d939d9f9g9h8h

The arrogance and stupidity here is astounding. Posters are so reluctant to see what the rest of the world sees clearly - that Britain has fared shockingly badly as the result of its own choices and ineptitude-are actually trying to turn this into a positive be pretending that the figures show Britain's remarkable integrity and skill at *counting". You couldn't make it up. This is the kind of dim confirmation bias that has led to literally thousands of excess deaths. We are winning the Darwin awards in a tragic and frankly aggravating way.

I am actually trying to see good and bad. I could argue the same for you re. Confirmation bias I find it all very interesting

Many other european countries excess deaths are back to normal or below normal and have been below even for sometime, i am not sure how that argument stands up at all then for Europe at least.As it stands the uk is one of the worse. Of course second waves are possible but that applies to the uk as well.

I'm deeply interested in how Britain is doing because people I care about are there. It also annoys me to see a well resourced country being a shit show without accountability or improvement. It does matter, it should matter and it's not a race to the bottom. And Britain is not better than everyone else at counting, either.

So many people still banging on about lockdown vs. no lockdown as if that's the only tool we have. Lockdown is for when you've fucked it up and lost control of the virus.

Yes OP, what's happening in some US states is very alarming, as well as Brazil and India. With these huge countries it's not that helpful to look at the figures for the country as a whole - some states will be doing much better than others, sometimes by paying as little attention to their president as possible.

Iran appears to be having a second wave as well.

When this is over and it turns out we did about average will those posters claiming we're the worst in the world be back here recanting?

No because by then they'll have moved onto Brexit and how that is going to make us the worst in the world.

What we need is an arena. We could drop in those saying that we murdered 1000s by not locking down soon enough and also drop in those who want the government facing criminal charges for too much lockdown.

They could fight each other then.

@Humphriescushion

Many other european countries excess deaths are back to normal or below normal and have been below even for sometime, i am not sure how that argument stands up at all then for Europe at least.As it stands the uk is one of the worse. Of course second waves are possible but that applies to the uk as well.

I agree re. Europe. We will be one of the worst with spain, italy and france too. But posters are saying we are one of the worst in the world where much of the world certainly india/ South america maybe Russia and parts of africa have still not peaked yet. Anyway it is a pointless argument that goes round and round. We will know more in 12 months, that is my main point. To declare us the worst now is basically wrong!

@LastTrainEast

When this is over and it turns out we did about average will those posters claiming we're the worst in the world be back here recanting?

No because by then they'll have moved onto Brexit and how that is going to make us the worst in the world.

What we need is an arena. We could drop in those saying that we murdered 1000s by not locking down soon enough and also drop in those who want the government facing criminal charges for too much lockdown.

They could fight each other then.

I'd watch that Socially distanced of course

@Newjez - The other thing that worries me is they seem to be pumping steroids into everyone

I know a few people have picked you up on this and said that dexamethasone is helpful for severely unwell patients.

Do you mean that in the US it is also being prescribed for those with mild symptoms or as a prophylactic?

Given what I have heard about the general problem of overmedication in the US this would not surprise me and, as you say, it would be very worrying.

Haven't Americans basically spent the last month on the streets 'protesting', looting, rioting and ripping down statues?

I'm sure they'll blame Trump for the upsurge in cases though.