What do you think this autumn / winter will look like in the UK?

[Bluewavescrashing]

Just curious--any predictions?

@scaevola

Schooling will still be difficult if people have to self isolate frequently for 14 days at a time.

BMJ is running an article urging certain categoties of NHS staff to take leave asap, as they might not get much in the way of time off from autumn onwards. Not exactly a prediction of a peak, but certainly not ruling one out

The BMJ or the BMA? Do you have a link for this? I can't seem to find anything.

We're being urged to take annual leave but I get the impression it's so it can be spread out and they're not in the position of having loads of requests in early 2021, or lots of request to carry over.

My work are prepping for and expecting a second peak around October time....

The govt seem to want that to not be discussed, presumably so people get out and shop etc. Probably a reasonable tactic I guess but makes it harder to get people to forward plan

We'll have a no deal Brexit to contend with too, so that'll be shit

@Scottishgirl85 - and your evidence for no vaccine until 2021? Or is that just your opinion? Several vaccines around the world are in final stage trials, manufacturers are ready to go (my best mates husband works for Astra Zeneca) & the government have suddenly announced vaccination plans for its roll out..

Scientists are naturally cautious yet seem optimistic about a vaccine. The results made public from Oxford so far show that their vaccine may not prevent you catching it but does prevent serious illness. Which is by far enough. We can all live with mild symptoms. If it prevents most people from dying or needing hospital treatment then great. Further results to be announced in the next few weeks. The webinars they put online with updates are really interesting.

A Chinese vaccine has proven to produce antibodies & is moving to the next stage:

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chinese-vaccine-makers-hail-success-of-antibody-trials-tpdvx873l

Also really positive!

And even if we do just vaccinate the elderly & vulnerable, we can still go back to normal. For everyone else, it’s just like catching any other shitty illness. I’d rather Covid than the hell that was norovirus a couple years ago. Landed me in hospital I was so sick. My daughter suffered with associated issues for months. It was such a bad outbreak it closed our nursery. These things happen.

As it is now. We can't afford a 'lockdown' like we've seen. A lot of businesses rely heavily on the Christmas trading period... Imagine the impact if they were to have to close

@Bol87 I work for big pharma, and our company are working on a vaccine. My estimate of later part of 2021 was to vaccinate wider population, I think certainly earlier thsn this for frontline staff, over 50s, vulnerable. But don't underestimate how long it takes to manufacture vaccines. Indeed companies, including my own, are manufacturing at risk before they even know how effective their vaccine is. And we will need several companies to be successful globally in order to vaccinate everyone.

Bleak.

HTH.

Still, we can all buy less presents for the people we never really want to but feel we have to, blaming it on various virus issues.

Less plastic crap.

A lot of people finding out that the extravagant jobseekers benefits they've been saying are too generous are actually £74.35 a week.

“DH still working from home four days a week, as he can very easily get his hours in and more”

Employers will be looking at their bottom line and, regardless of how hard people are working fh (in organisations / roles where this is possible), many are likely to make redundancies.

What would be good would be a test that you get results from in 1/2 hour with no sticking pipe cleaners up your nose or down your throat.

Supposed to be on the horizon I believe. The EU etc will likely be using it but good old Brexit Britain will spend eleventy billion pounds on some other one someone will flog us and we'll here about "world leading" and "game changer". And then, after wasting 3 months, we'll have to scrabble about for loose change down the back of the sofa to pay for the one everyone else has been using for weeks.

I wonder how schools and families will manage if whole households have to isolate every time anyone has a cough. I have two primary aged children and there is rarely a time during autumn/winter when no-one in our house has a cough or cold! Hopefully testing will be much more readily available with quick turnaround so households don't have to isolate for long.

More normal than maybe it looks now.

I certainly won’t be complying with any further lockdown measures imposed and will be socialising with family members and friends as normal regardless.

I also think a lot of people will have lost jobs, including many of those who think they are secure. I suspect sadly a lot of such people are going to get a very rude awakening.

Oh god. I think it's going to be hard. We will be/are in massive recession and Brexit will be happening. High streets are going to be devastated especially pubs and restaurants as anything but close to fully booked tends to mean they aren't viable.

There won't be a tested vaccine yet so once the children go back to school and people stop shielding, numbers will go up again and we'll take a step backwards in terms of being out and about and living a normal life.

And once flu season begins, oh god, so much self-isolating just in case.

I was going to say I am dreading winter but actually I'm mentally looking at next May as the next happy and free days.

Shite.

Cold wet queues for basic food and mass unemployment.

Total shite.

Enjoy this summer like it was 2019.
Spoiler: 2021 is worse

Come on, people! Maybe it won't be bad? Virus going, people happy to be free? Some actual fun allowed?

Well let's hope so Mascotte

Virus going, people happy to be free? Some actual fun allowed?

I think there's a fair chance of that tbh. Once a vaccine gets approved and starts to be rolled out, people will start feeling more positive and confident about the future even when they're not in the first groups getting it. That means spending more money, which is good for the economy, which helps everyone. Also maybe means some excellent New Year's Eve parties.

Obviously it might be bad and bleak as well but we can't see the future, so I don't see any reason to think for example that a second wave by winter is much more likely than a vaccine by winter.

I think there will be disruption due to extra caution for coughs/ colds. We do have the benefit of testing though.

Not sure on large scale events/ entertainments. That's the last stage of normality to resume. Also they are affected by some mitigation such as testing sites/ Nightingale units, so they need to be removed or redeployed to get back to their regular function rather than just stood down in situ.

I'd love to have a sociable Christmas, but it's very early to hope for that kind of normality.

Winter of skint discontent

I feel very very bleak about this winter. People having to self isolate for normal coughs and colds - leading to shortages and closed businesses. Increased prices, then no deal brexit leading to acute shortages of food, medicine and other goods and runaway prices.

oh and no government rescues.

@helenj77

My friends mum works there and their hygiene was terrible and no SD that is one reason

Lonely.