Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 10 of the daily updates.

Resource links:

Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

@NeurotrashWarrior
That links v interesting. Arrives via Italy late February we were in Rome 21/2 for the Rugby International.

My friend and I had a long discussion today about how people seem to be ignoring fact and stats over their preferences and personal opinions of what should happen.

One of the things we said was how people cannot see 30 people in a shop the size of a school will have less risk than 30 people in 6 classes in the same space. And in a school it's constant contact.
That people don't seem to get transmission rates and that the reason transmission is low is because of what is opening and how. They aren't prioritising zoos over schools. They aren't comparable!

And that's from someone who works and is passionate about education.

Big choc, I'm in an SEN school and controversially don't agree with blanket inclusion. Inclusion isn't a black and white thing. It works extremely well if it's understood properly.

Couldn't agree more. I don't think people actually understand what it means and the intention behind it.

"IF the easing does indeed send the numbers back up or autumn/winter causes them to go up what will we do to surpress them again?
It doesn't seem likely that the government would go for another lockdown or would they?"

A 2nd full lockdown is imo v unlikely as scientists should know enough now about which lesser measures can stop dangerous exponential growth, without savaging the economy again

Effective measures:

mass testing
contact tracking of new cases
immediate v local lockdowns of new outbreaks
keeping the ban on larger events which could be superspreaders - if cases rise, then size of groups could be further limited in size, even outdoors
Full sick pay for all care staff including cleaners, cooks
and yes, continued emphasis on hand-washing in schools and work places; mandatory to have sufficient facilities for this

Of course, mustn't forget mandatory mask-wearing for public transport, taxis and could be brought in for shops & schools if cases really rise again

I think washable masks should be government initiative. So each person registered with a GP gets 5. I think it's fair enough we pay. So increase all NI by a nominal amount for a month (eg £10 per NI payer to cover kids etc and then those on benefits don't pay).

There is certainly much more we could do and I think the message needs to be about transmission remaining the same but it's kept low because of x y and z

Thanks @BigChocFrenzy I know Boris keeps refering to his whack a mole strategy but this requires us to have a reliable and proficient track and trace program and this doesn't seem to be likely until September/October according to reports and even then, given the mess that has been made of the whole situation in England it may not be of any use then.

I do think the mishandling of this pandemic is adding to anxiety and fear.

It could've been so different

I always talk about playing human whac a mole. No longer saying it now Boris has adopted the expression

@BigChocFrenzy

We’ll also see any rise coming far more quickly.... We won’t have cases into the 100,000s and doubling every few days whilst the country carries on oblivious and mixing socially like it was 2019!

I would certainly hope so, Derby

Lockdown was a pause button to allow time not just to flatten the curve,
but also to build up mass testing and contact tracking system, as well as health service capacity and learning how to treat patients.

Some countries have used that lockdown time more effectively than others,
but imo barring an absolute runaway emergency, lockdown was a once-only shotgun response for any country

Massive pressure for this from business, especially the hospitality sector,
but it's also the only feasible enabler for ft schools

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/10/two-metre-rule-scrapped-time-new-school-year/

Boris Johnson plans to scrap the two metre rule by September at the latest so that schools can reopen fully for the start of the school year,
The Telegraph has learnt.

The Prime Minister has indicated to ministers that he is preparing to change the rule,
possibly bringing it into line with the World Health Organisation standard of one metre,
within weeks.

The number of Russian doctors who fell out of windows after talking about COVID patients was reason enough to doubt the suspiciously low Russian figures for deaths.

Now some death stats coming out suggests major Russian cities may each have thousands of excess deaths - they can't all have suffered a window malfunction:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/10/global-report-eu-nations-continue-steady-exits-from-lockdown

Reports that Moscow will report 57% more deaths for the month of May than in the three previous years, meanwhile,
indicated the city’s coronavirus death toll for the month may be at least double the official tally,
casting further doubt on the accuracy of Russia’s Covid-19 death figure.

The Russian capital reportedly had 5,799 “excess deaths” for the month of May but has recorded only 2,750 deaths primarily due to coronavirus.

The data is in line with other major cities, including St Petersburg, where total mortality rates have shown thousands of deaths not reflected in official coronavirus tallies.

It's hard to believe it's real 😳 I mean actual 'defenestration'😳
It's like a plot from a gangster film😳

Topical after SAGE & Ferguson answers to day to the HoC Committee:

John Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch (FT)

UK has suffered one of worst outbreaks anywhere

Deaths have been:
• 61% higher than usual in England
• +49% in Scotland
• +37% in Northern Ireland
• +36% in Wales

9/12 regions have excess deaths near or above 50%^

Bad outbreaks in many regions suggest action taken too late.

John Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch (FT)

Here’s the same for Spanish regions.

Many parts of Spain had severe outbreaks.
Two saw deaths more than double, and a total of 7/19 saw at least a 50% spike.

Nonetheless, the data suggest the worst of Spain’s outbreak was contained in fewer regions than the UK’s.

Here’s France,
where Paris suffered badly, and Grand Est region also faced a big outbreak,
but although most other areas were affected none saw all-cause deaths increase by 50% or more.

In other words, worst of French outbreak was contained in much fewer areas than UK outbreak.

Finally Italian regions,now with fresh data

Lombardy hit v hard, and 5 other northern regions saw excess deaths of 50%+,
but in most regions numbers were relatively muted, including Lazio (contains Rome)

For whatever reason, < late lockdown >
UK’s outbreak spread further than in peer countries

"It's like a plot from a gangster film"

Putin is straight out of central casting as an ex-KGB hood turned to organised crime
Trump would be rejected as too ridiculously crooked (& deranged) for any casting as US President

Did people hear the Today programme discussions this morning, on whether the science was followed, whether that's what politicians should do, what the science actually was mid- March? I was actually left feeling quite confused!

Sorry can't link but it's mainly after the 8 o'clock headlines so about 130 mins in.

Sorry, the Today programme in Radio 4

Secondary classrooms still aren't large enough to accommodate average sized classes kept 1m apart.

Re-government actions in mid-March: it was clear to us “mumsnet armchair epidemiologists” U.K. was following Italy’s curve and we were approx.12 days behind. Therefore locking down two weeks after Italy would cause a similar deaths count as Italy in the first wave I.e. in the region of 40,000 + additional excess deaths (which we now know are a significant number, 20,000 that in particular hit the nursing home community hard).

So we have to make peace with two scenarios:

1. the government was advised closing schools on March 20 and locking down the country would lead to approx. 40,000 deaths and decided to take that number “on the chin” but isn’t publicly going to admit it.

2. the government was not adequately advised. This could have been because their scientific advisors were firmly entrenched in following their pandemic plan for flu, or the scientists didn’t drive home what exponential growth meant clearly enough. The week of March 16-23 was very significant because it gave time for the virus to quadruple (estimated hospital deaths going from 10,000-40,000).

What we are seeing now is that coming out of lockdown is harder having delayed that week and in this respect delaying lockdown a week hasn’t done the economy any good.

Regarding world-rankings, We still need to see what happens in other countries in the coming year too. Maybe we will avoid a second wave In hospitals and nursing homes through immunity or close attention to practice. Italy publishes excess Deaths quarterly so the apr-may-jun numbers may put them more in line with U.K.

ONS: Presenting estimates of R by government and allied bodies across the United Kingdom

https://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/publication/presenting-estimates-of-r-by-government-and-allied-bodies-across-the-united-kingdom/

Uni Cambridge Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication

Covid-19 Deaths by Local Authority in England and Wales

I couldn't connect to this - kept reloading - but if connection works for you, then useful info about your local area & risk

wintoncentre.maths.cam.ac.uk/coronavirus/covid-excess/

It's not even just about formal lockdown, is it. In some ways the key date was 16 March, when Boris told everyone who could to work from home and avoid restaurants and theatres etc (though he didn't order closure until a few days later). If he had taken these measures a week earlier it would have made a very significant difference.

Personally I think they need to scrap the idea of social distancing in schools. It isn't realistic and children need to be educated.

The problem all boils down to lack of testing. We had no idea of the community spread in March. The official figures we were releasing were only people being tested in hospital with symptoms. There must have been thousands and thousands more out there in the community. And I’m sorry I’m no scientist but it was bloody obvious this was the case.

So the scientists based their advice on the official figures. Based on those small, inaccurate figures they said huge events such as Cheltenham were fine and no need to lock down.

We waited and waited until the figures justified a lock down. Yet the figures were inaccurate, we were in exponential growth and the testing hadn’t caught up.

At this point the PM said no need to lock down yet, the public wouldn’t have an appetite for a long lockdown. (Oh the irony). We didn’t have the science to back up a lockdown as we didn’t have an idea of the correct figures.

Yes that delay of a week cost thousands of deaths and has meant we are struggling to come out of lockdown. They were following the ‘science’ but the ‘science’ was based on incorrect information.

At the briefing yesterday they were asked repeatedly what they got wrong and what they would have done differently.

Only person to answer honestly was Whitty. He said testing. He said for many reasons we couldn’t test enough. He knows this is what shaped the decisions that

turned out to be incorrect. He also praised Germany.