Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 10 of the daily updates.

Resource links:

Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

I have come to find you, a) because this is Mumsnet so there was bound to be an analysis thread and Lord knows I love a bit of analysis and b) because I was wondering what was going on with Spain. I listen to More or Less and they were talking about the new reporting measures that basically doesn't report anything on a daily basis unless it meets very stringent timing criteria but according to them there should be a weekly update that includes all the figures. However according to Worldometers Spain hasn't reported any deaths since 26th May, which is several weeks ago, and there definitely have been deaths.

Qasd imo, Sweden's cases - and deaths - are not decreasing as they would be if they were near herd immunity

Some weeks ago, their serology study found 17% with antibodies in Stockholm, only 7% average over the whole country

I don't know how much this would have risen since - ==> anyone ? -
but Anders Tegell (Sweden's health chief) said more recently he estimated
well over 20% in Stockholm have antibodies now;
no figures for the country average though

The IFR is disputed and seems to vary among regions, but most reliable estimates have it at 0.4% - 1.1%
So herd immunity - without a vaccine - is a rather ruthless strategy.
However, the Scandi / Nordic countries look to be at the low end of IFR - probably because of factors like low population density and normal SD culture

Many virologists in Europe say a real 2nd wave is unlikely, so herd immunity may not compensate for higher 1st wave deaths.
However, for Sweden, concerns about civil liberties, the constitution & the economy seem to have been at least as important as any herd strategy.

BlackAmericanNoSugar Spain appears to be eating lots of fudge, to justify opening up for the vital summer tourist season
and hence avoid mass bankruptcies in their large hospitality sector

Catalonia is reporting deaths, so it is unlikely the rest of Spain is experiencing compensatory resurrections

• or they would indeed attract a lot of tourists this year

New York Times: Spain

Much obfuscation and likely missing large numbers of deaths in care homes

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/europe/spain-coronavirus-cases.html

On April 16, the health ministry started to include results from antibody tests in its daily tallies of confirmed cases,
only to retract them a week later.

Antibody tests, authorities said, don’t reflect new infections,
because they “do not determine whether the person developed the disease,
how long it has been since he or she has developed immunity.”

Since April 24, the tally of confirmed cases includes data obtained from PCR diagnostic tests only,
which caused a drop in the number of known infections, from around 220,000 to just over 200,000.

On May 25, Spain announced yet another way of collecting data,
by counting a death based on when it happened, instead of when authorities were notified about it.
As a result, the country’s death toll saw a 2,000 drop,
and authorities have said that they would update the numbers weekly, warning that more changes might come, while still reporting daily numbers.

Confused? Many people and news outlets have been so too.
Although authorities have argued that the new data collection system provides a better picture of the pandemic,
Spanish news mediaa_ have run lengthy explainers trying to explain the “incomprehensible figures”
and the “thousands of casualties that suddenly disappeared from the series.”

Spain, like most countries, is only counting fatalities of those who have tested positive for coronavirus.

The Madrid region and Catalonia, the country’s worst hit areas, have started to report “confirmed or suspected” coronavirus deaths provided by funeral homes in daily updates,
but those updated numbers are not included in the daily death tolls published by Spain’s health ministry.

The regional numbers there include deaths in nursing homes and suggest that the death toll is far higher than reported so far.

There have been suggestions that antibodies dont last longer than 3 months in some people - "herd immunity" may not exist. It is a very very risky strategy when you have a new disease and dont know if immunity will develop or last if it does.

There is a risk even for apparently healthy young people. It may be tiny but is still there. There have been more deaths in apparently healthy people who were unaware they had an underlying health condition. www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/17/no-underlying-conditions-coronavirus-deaths-english-hospitals

The failure to protect those in care homes is a national scandal. Some care homes have managed to protect their residents, some have managed to delay infection - that means if their residents get infected now they have a better chance of survival. Infection leaks out of them back into the community too. www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/02/covid-19-spilling-out-of-hospitals-and-care-homes-says-uk-expert

Governments, and their apologists, will try to lie about this.

forgot the other lie on this thread - "hospitals are empty". No, they are not. Some may be better at getting back to work than others but non Covid ICUs are filling up now. However there is a problem with staff not permitted leave during the peak of the epidemic. They are worn out and need leave so that needs to be taken now. You cant run staff ragged and not expect them to need time to recover so workload may be below normal while they do so.

Really interesting consultant on bbc this morning talking about the myth that this mainly affects older people and those with risk conditions. Yes those more at risk of dying but in hospitals they are seeing all ages coming in with severe Covid, esp aged 30+ . As I think has been accepted in many other countries but the framing in UK has been very much this is a disease if the elderly and vulnerable.

That is healthy people aged 30+ no pre existing conditions . We need more consultants to speak out to counter govt getting back to normal message which I think most people are following as it’s what they want to hear. Risk is dropping but we can’t stop SD which a lot of people around me are doing.

You only need to peek (mind your blood pressure!) at the other boards to see the only stat anyone ever considers as relevant is the whataboutery about deaths.

There is no interest in the people who are in hospital for a long time but who don't die or those living (many young and previously fit) with the after effects. There is very little coverage in the media about the actual illness itself and the survivors and the effects on them.

Many bosses literally think it is a sniffle, you're off for a week and then back fighting fit. I have heard of people who are bullied by employers because they are reporting still very unwell after 7 days and told to come back to work. There is definitely a lack of general understanding about the virus itself and how it affects those who fall victim to it. It's just 'these number of people might have it; this many died. Very sad' That's it.

My concern is that there's risk of death, which is clearly linked to age, and we would absolutely want to avoid at all costs, but also separately, risk of long term health issues such as lung damage and post viral fatigue, which younger working people, people with children, could be at risk for. Having experienced a little of this, with a young child? I wouldn't wish it on anyone. That's potentially a life sentence.

There are certainly many reports of people suffering cyclical bouts of it for 3 months now and extreme fatigue and breathlessness..

covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-long-term

The problem with the long-term effects is that the research will take time. It's been six months or so, so many people could still recover some function and fitness. Recovery any pneumonia can be long and difficult. A previously fit and healthy 15 year old I know took more than a year to recover from an atypical pneumonia that was treated as an outpatient, no ITU.

Obviously the strokes and other results of clotting disorders will take a long time to rehabilitate and people may not regain full function. I'm sure the research will come out and will hit the papers when it does. There are now post-Covid teams, so they will hopefully be documenting progress.

Piggywaspushed

I don't agree. There is plenty of talk on the main boards about the long term effects.

For me, I worry about them, but what can I do? I can't shut myself away forever. I recognise that the long term symptoms, horrible as they are, are still the minority and not the norm.

There are 2.5k on the 1 in 20 fb page. For long haulers.

MN and FB isn't the media, though, which is what I was specifically talking about.

I think the lack of coverage in the MSM does affect the narrative on here : outside of the boards specifically about long term effects you still meet posters who do definitely minimise the whole thing by talking only in terms of deaths of those with 'underlying health conditions' and the elderly/ care homes. (What BCF called 'othering' imo)

I am certain it is a nudge theory thing by the government to the media. call me cynical. And the media no longer focus on the actual people who have died in the same way.

What are the numbers for these medium term effects and how do they compare with post-viral conditions from other viruses?

The threads have been so helpful.
I might have missed it but people have said ‘there’s not many infections in my area’- how would they know? Is there a source that shows infections, regularly refreshed, per county? ( not deaths)

You can look at the Sky news coronavirus tracker of the Guardian map wunderweb

nihil , that isn't my point...

forgot the other lie on this thread - "hospitals are empty". No, they are not.

yeah we do data in this thread actually.

There were 1,557,323 1st outpatient attendances in April 2019

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/06/MAR_Comm-Web-file-Apr-19-g3XA1.xls

April 2020 this was down to 635,359

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/06/MAR_Comm-Web-file-Apr-20-g3XA1-1.xls

Covid-19 mechanical ventilator beds down from 3300 to 385 in the UK as a whole as of 15 June assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/892802/2020-06-16_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Data.xlsx

Do you have any data to support your assertions whatsoever?

German stats for confirmed cases are that 18% are hospitalised and 2% need ICU
Those are the figures for a country where all cases are treated to the maximum required, at home and in hospital.

No other infectious disease has come close in modern times to this burden on the health services

Merkel warned when she relaxed lockdown that if ever R0 stayed above 1 for a long time,
then exponential growth within months would overwhelm even the German health service
(which has massive hospital and ICU spare capacity, far more than just about any other country)

However, virologists here do NOT expect that 2nd wave, because R0 is only briefly above 1 and:
v low cases & deaths for several weeks, still declining
effective contact tracking system,
immediate - & mandatory - local lockdowns when new cases exceed a local population %

Massive drop in UK COVID hospital admissions, e.g. see PHE graph

Also, in Germany, currently only about 400 in ICU, compared to 3,000 - 4,000 in early-mid April
Similar over most European countries (not Russia, maybe not Sweden)

Aargh don't know why App is such a lying bugger about photos, now trying Safari

English hospital admissions:

Well now, that's interesting. Just done some back calculating using that 18% on the published hospital admissions numbers for England...

Looking at the 18% on a day to day basis and assuming an average 5 day incubation period, I get an average of around 35k people per week catching Covid for the period 25 April - 7 June; the ONS prevalence survey based on testing says 32k. (Community infections).

Based on current admissions, that looks like for last week we were down to around 18k per week. Be very interesting to see what the ONS study says tomorrow!

Because I think there could be some serious loosening up announcements (confirmation of pubs etc, and down to 1 m) if it comes out that infections are still dropping at that rate.....